G’s Exploration or The Teams Who Challenge Themselves and The Not So Much

We are nearing the end of our SOS analysis prior to the season so that we can look forward to weeks 0 and 1. As of today, we are just 33 days away from the initial set of kickoffs, but that’s a blog coming in a couple of weeks. There are just 9 conferences (if you consider the independents as a conference as I do for these rankings) left to preview, so let’s jump in with some controversy.

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In the 9th (or “I”) spot, are the Independents which include 6 Group of 5 (although BYU is in the process of joining the Big 12 next summer). In addition, the independent list will reduce by 2 more when Liberty and New Mexico St join Conference USA next year (they are also adding Jacksonville St and Sam Houston from the FCS). That will leave UCONN (great basketball school), UMASS (pretty good hockey and lacrosse teams), and Army (great leadership training school) as the remaining Group of 5 independents – just 3. In the past, I’ve always separated the Group of 5 Indies from the only remaining Power 5 counterpart, Notre Dame…because it’s Notre Dame – College Royalty or something. From the heyday of the 1970s and 80s when the Independents not only were numerous, but impactful, next year we will be down to just 4. Teams like Boston College, BYU (won the championship in 1984), UCF, Cincinnati, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, Miami FL (’83,’87,’89), Penn St (’82,’86), Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia to name a few. In the last 50 seasons an independent school won the national title 9 times with Notre Dame (’73 co with Alabama,’77,’88) and Miami FL each taking down 3 of them. All 9 titles were won between 1973 and 1988: a remarkable 16-year run. Certainly, the golden age of the independent. No indie has won, however, since 1989. Notre Dame played for the trophy in 2013 (BCS) but lost to Alabama 42-14. They had another chance in the 2018-19 CFB Playoffs but fell to Clemson 30-3, then one more shot in the COVID season in which they played exclusively in the ACC, so the Irish’s only non-indie year in their existence, so it doesn’t count (they lost the semi 31-14 to Alabama). What happened? First the indies joined conferences or, like Wichita St, quit playing football, so fewer teams mean fewer options. Second, the Power 5 conferences (shifting around from time to time in both teams and strength) got better. What made the Indies so powerful in that 16-year period is that they were major players (at least some of them) who played challenging schedules (because they had to to be relevant). Over the last few years, the Irish have been slacking a bit. Some years, playing 5 ACC games helps them, some not so much. Stanford and Southern Cal being down the last few seasons has hurt the schedule. Playing Navy every year is a great tradition but won’t win any votes come Playoff selection time. Needless to say at this point, although ND is a power 5 team in every way, they will be clumped in with the rest of the indies until they show that their CHALLENGE is different. Why should a 7-5 Power 5 team be ranked (as a rule) above a 7-5 Group of 5 team? The schedule and it’s challenge. Conference USA knows they are not as strong as the Big Ten so a 7-5 W Kentucky might be ranked in the top 50, but a 7-5 Michigan St will be butting up against the top 25. It’s the challenge. Notre Dame’s preseason SOS is 76 out of 131 FBS teams (there are 65 Power 5 teams). They are ranked with the 55th most difficult Power 5 schedule. Old Dominion and ULM are playing a more challenging schedule. Rice and LA Tech are playing more challenging schedule. UCONN is playing a more challenging schedule. Just in the conferences we have already (or will talk through this post), 2 Conference USA teams play more difficult schedules, 6 Sun Belt teams, 2 Independents, and 3 MAC teams. Notre Dame is a Power 5 team and I will always list them as such, but this year they will be combined with the indies in every single discussion. If they don’t go undefeated (and they won’t), there is no chance for a playoff spot. Period. Yes, they play Ohio St, Clemson, and BYU. But 7 of their opponents had losing records last year (compared to just 3 in the BYU opponent list). For other conferences, I’ve listed their out of conference games, but for these guys that winning (WR)/losing records (LR) seemed to be more indicative. For comparison, the FBS average PS SOS is 7.348 with the Group of 5 averaging 6.697 and the Power 5 averaging 8.029. BYU cracked the top 40 in the SOS ranking, but 2 teams were in the bottom 25 for the FBS (next to the team’s name). The 7 teams were 42-46 last year and average 6.676 PS SOS. Here are all of the Independents:

Team	21 W-L	21 SOS Rank	22 PS SOS	22 Rank	WR	LR
BYU	10-3	78	8.011	40	9	3
UCONN	1-11	84	7.866	42	6	6
Notre Dame	11-2	52	7.003	76	5	7
Army	9-4	99	6.480	97	6	6
New Mexico St	2-10	70	6.357	103	5	7
Liberty (7)	8-5	89	5.908	125	4	8
UMASS (2)	1-11	106	5.104	130	5	7

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Now, a little back to normal as we shift to our 8th or “H” most difficult conference, the Mighty MAC. I love this conference as anyone who has read this blog for any time knows. They have the November Tuesday/Wednesday games so not a day goes by without football on tv (pros on Sunday/Monday, Mac on Tuesday/Wednesday, “regular” games Thursday/Friday/Saturday). The other thing I like about them is they love the challenge. In non-conference games, these 12 teams, who were 78-81 last year build their PS SOS to an average of 6.681 by playing a combined 21 Power 5 teams (all 12 play at least one). They aren’t playing Kansas and only one is playing Vanderbilt. Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Michigan St, Washington, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio St, Arizona St, Oklahoma St, Penn St, Maryland, UCLA, Mississippi St, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt PLUS they have Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Cincinnati and San Diego St from the Group of 5 ranks. Yes, every team plays one FCS team, but, damn, they deserve that, don’t you think? This is a conference I’ll be watching closely – think of the upset possibilities! No team broke the top 50 in PS SOS and 4 are in the bottom 25 of the FBS, but the variation is among the least of any conference. For the NC (non-conference) columns (F) means FCS, (P) means Power 5 and (N) means neutral site. Here they are:

Team	21 W-L	21 SOS Rank	22 PS SOS	PS SOS Rank	NC-Home	NC-Away
Akron	2-10	122	7.594	53	St Francis (F)	Michigan St (P), Tennessee (P), Liberty
W Michigan	8-5	67	7.510	58	Pittsburgh (P), New Hampshire (F)	Michigan St (P), San Jose St
Kent St	7-7	81	7.293	66	Long Island (F)	Washington (P), Georgia (P), Oklahoma (P)
Toledo	7-6	115	6.824	83	Long Island (F), UMASS	Ohio St (P), San Diego St
E Michigan	7-6	107	6.718	88	E Kentucky (F), UMASS	Louisiana, Arizona St (P)
C Michigan	9-4	119	6.688	89	South Alabama, Bucknell (F)	Oklahoma St (P), Penn St (P)
Buffalo	4-8	127	6.498	95	Holy Cross (F)	Maryland (P), Coastal Carolina, UMASS
Bowling Green	4-8	118	6.353	114	E Kentucky (F), Marshall	UCLA (P), Mississippi St (P)
Ball St (21)	6-7	104	6.246	111	Murray St (F), UCONN	Tennessee (P), Ga Southern
Miami OH (18)	7-6	91	6.206	114	Robert Morris (F)	Kentucky (P), Cincinnati (N), Northwestern (P)
Ohio (17)	3-9	121	6.165	115	FAU, Fordham (F)	Penn St (P), Iowa St (P)
N Illinois (14)	9-5	79	6.084	118	E Illinois (F), Vanderbilt (P)	Tulsa, Kentucky (P)

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That finishes us up for today. Next time we will finish up the Group of 5 before studying the Big Guys. Thank you for reading and if you have issues or questions, please put them in the comments. If you like what you see, please share and/or invite others to join in. Until later this week, G