Hello football fans! Yesterday we kicked off bowl season with a trio of games (ok, one was an FCS semifinal to be specific) where we saw Middle Tennessee 7-6 (111) come from behind to upset Toledo 7-6 (112) 31-24 followed by Coastal Carolina 11-2 (29) come from behind to avoid being upset by N Illinois 9-5 (52) 47-41. The game of the day was the semifinal, a repeat of last year’s FCS championship game, in which North Dakota St 13-1 (60) edged James Madison 12-2 (82) on a 4th quarter go-ahead touchdown 20-14. They will face the winner of this afternoon’s (game is at 2:00 – all times Eastern) clash when South Dakota St 11-3 (108), the only team to beat North Dakota St this season, invades Bozeman to take on Montana St 11-2 (90). In the first upset of the bowl season, and one of 3 just today, Vegas likes the Jackrabbits -5.0, but the GCR calculates Montana St will win at home 57.9%.
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In live action right now, there are 2 games. First is App St 10-3 (27) of the Sun Belt taking on W Kentucky 8-5 (59) from C-USA in the Boca Raton bowl. With 10:34 in the 3rd, the Hilltoppers have jumped out to a 38-24 lead over the Mountaineers. When App St has the ball, they bring a 129 OER (offensive efficiency rating) meaning they score 12.9 points for every 10 points their opponents allow and will face a DER (defensive efficiency rating) from WKY of 101 meaning the Hilltoppers allow 10.0 points for every 10.1 points their opponents normally score. One would think advantage: App St. On the flip side, W Kentucky has the 7th best OER in the country at 153 and are matched against the 26th best DER at 145. Power vs Power. It should be no surprise that points are scoring like they are. The GCR calculates the Mountaineers will win out 65.9% (probably due to the OER/DER imbalance on offense), but in the second upset call (and looking more like a bad one), Vegas has W Kentucky -1.0. Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers QB, just passed for his 5th TD of the game putting the season total to 61 which just broke Joe Burrow’s record of 60. Congratulations Bailey. W Kentucky is now up 45-24 with 5:56 in the 3rd. But a quick strike by App St brings it back to 14 – 45-31 with 5:48 in the 3rd. Fasten your seatbelts folks.
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The second ongoing game also just had a score. In a sold-out Mercedes Benz stadium in Atlanta, the winners of the MEAC and the SWAC are meeting for the annual Celebration Bowl. Neither of these HBCU conferences formally participates in the FCS Playoffs and use this game as their reward. The MEAC is represented by South Carolina St 6-5 (178) who were undefeated in conference vs the SWAC powerhouse (who just signed the #2 recruit in the country) Jackson St 11-1 (79). Just looking at the GCR rankings and the wins/losses, you’d think a blowout. Vegas thinks so with Jackson St -10.0, but with less than a minute to go in the half the game is tied 7-7. Jackson St got on the board in the first and held that lead until a fumble recovery gave South Carolina St a 3-yard drive to tie the game. After a punt, the Bulldogs have the ball back and are driving deep in Tiger territory. (note: W Kentucky just scored again and are back up 52-31 with 2:42 to go in the 3rd). With 8 seconds to go before halftime, the Bulldogs add a field goal and clearly have the momentum. The GCR prediction? Jackson St 69.8%.
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Whew! I’m already tired and there are still 5 more games to go. At 2:15, UTEP 7-5 (113) of C-USA takes on Fresno St 9-3 (37) of the Mountain West conference in the New Mexico Bowl. When UTEP has the ball, they bring an OER of just 86 and will face a Bulldog DER of 122. When Fresno St is on offense, an OER of 121 will clash with a DER of 103. UTEP used to be a doormat and it’s been fun watching them have success this season, but this looks like a blowout. Vegas has Fresno St -12.0 and the GCR agrees: Bulldogs 69.8%.
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At 3:30, we see our first GCR top 25 team play when C-USA’s UAB 8-4 (56) takes on Independent BYU 10-2 (20) in the Independence Bowl. When the Blazers have the ball, they bring an OER of 112 to face a Cougar 113 DER. So far, so good – seems like a wash there. BYU brings an OER 124 to face UAB’s 124 DER. Wow! This looks like a really good matchup. BYU is favored -6.5 by Vegas and the GCR agrees at 68.4%.
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This afternoon sees a 5:45 kickoff for the Lending Tree Bowl pitting the MAC’s E Michigan 7-5 (104) against another Independent in Liberty 7-5 (84). Yesterday, the MAC got off to an 0-2 bowl season start so the Eagles will have some pressure to get the W. On offense, EMI has on OER of 112 vs a Flames DER of 126. When Liberty is driving, we are looking at an OER 116 vs a DER of 94. This reads like Liberty has the advantage and both Vegas (LIB -9.0) and the GCR (LIB 57.9%) agree.
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In the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (I did NOT make that up), we have our first bowl involving a Power 5 team when Oregon St 7-5 (62) of the awful Pac-12 takes on Utah St 10-3 (34) of the Mountain West starting at 7:30. The Beavers come in with an OER of 127 and will face an Aggie DER of just 99. When switched, Utah St has an OER of 128 vs a DER of 103. It looks like a lot of scoring in this one, but pretty even. In the 3rd upset of the day, Vegas has Oregon St -7.0, but the GCR likes the Aggies 62.9%.
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W Kentucky just scored again (this time was a rush) and are now up 59-31 with 9:40 to go in the game.
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In the final matchup tonight, with a 9:15 kickoff, Marshall 7-5 (99) of C-USA will take on the Sun Belt’s Louisiana 12-1 (13) in the New Orleans Bowl. On offense, the Thundering Herd muscles an OER of 123 vs a Ragin’ Cajun DER 149 (24th in the country). When ULL has the ball, an OER of 109 faces a 125 DER from Marshall. Look for a defensive battle in this game but expect Louisiana to pick up win #13. Vegas thinks so (ULL -4.0) and the GCR agrees: 81.2%.
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This first chart is the ongoing bowl records by conference (FBS only).
| Conference | Bowls | Record | P5 Record | G5 Record |
| American | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| ACC | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Indies | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| MAC | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Mtn West | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Pac-12 | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| SEC | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
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And here are all of the games. Odds, records, and GCR rankings are current as of me starting to type this post. Color coding: yellow indicates a difference of opinion between Vegas and the GCR, red indicates a miss by either Vegas, the GCR, or both, and green indicates a correct prediction. Enjoy and I’ll see you again on Monday. Thanks, G
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