Howdy, oh great and wonderful college football fans. It’s August, teams are in camp, and the weather has even turned a bit fall-like, although here in the South, summer will be back with a vengeance at least one more time. We are just 17 days from the first game which will feature two teams from the Big 12, this episode’s focus, and the 4th highest average GCR preseason Strength of Schedule (SOS) of any conference. Iowa St will take on Kansas St from Dublin, Ireland with a noon Eastern start on August 23th which will be the first of over 1600 Division I football games this season.
…..
JoJo and I were talking about the Big 12, and, as we will for each of the remaining conferences, we picked our team to pull for. This is not necessarily the team we expect to win the conference, but rather, one that, for our own reasons, we just want to follow. JoJo picked the TCU Horned Frogs with me adding the Kansas St Wildcats. I remember in my youth following them, along with Kansas and Northwestern, in their years of futility (yes, there was one season where KSST and KAN combined for a single win) celebrating the rare victory. While I’ve always been a SC Gamecock fan and have a deep-seated feeling of always being the underdog because of that, those three perpetual losers drove the underdog into my core. When the Wildcats turned things around and had some really strong seasons starting 10-15 years ago, it was as exciting for me as it would have been for “my” team.
…..
There are 68 Core 4 teams this season and 18 of them won at least 10 games. Three of those were in the Big 12, each of whom won 11. November last year was exciting as there was a race to play in the Big 12 championship with tiebreakers being talked about the entire month. Iowa St and Arizona St won the race with BYU looking in. BYU ended up with the best winning percentage at 11-2 while the other two were 11-3. In college football today, for the Big 12 to compete with the Big Ten and the SEC for playoff spots, they are going to have to utilize non-conference games to showcase their strength. With only 3 of the 16 teams in the top 25 preseason SOS, I predict the committee just won’t see the conference as an impact player. They don’t even average a single Core 4 non-conference opponent this season (13 for 16 teams).
…..
Let me back up. The first preseason SOS episode for this season was back in May. We’ve added some new readers since then, so let me give a bit of summary. The GCR is a non-biased mathematical set of formulae that is based on a few assumptions. One: there are three primary sections within Division I, which are the Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame), the Group of 5 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, Sun Belt, and UCONN), and the FCS (Big Sky, Big South/Ohio Valley Conference, Coastal, Ivy, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Patriot, Pioneer, SoCon, Southland, SWAC, United, Merrimack, and Sacred Heart). Two: as a rule, Core 4 teams are more difficult (and therefore more valuable) to play than Group of 5 schools which are more difficult to play than FCS foes which are more difficult to play than non-Division I games. Three: games played on the road are more difficult (and therefore more valuable) to play than neutral site games which are more difficult than home games. Four: all teams have records of 0-0 before the season starts with identical (0.00) SOS, making them all tied for first or last prior to the first game which makes preseason ranking impossible. Five: as games are played, the in-season values change based on current wins and losses (along with other Performance factors) and updated SOS for all teams played (more on that in the next paragraph). A combination of these two values creates the “total’ score which is what the GCR uses to rank the teams. Lastly: preseason SOS (i.e., these posts) are based on “this” year’s opponent’s using “last” years results to estimate. For example, BYU was 11-2 last year and is worth a certain preseason SOS value based on that. Once the season begins, the number goes back to 0. If they are 2-10 this season, the GCR will have overstated the estimated SOS in the preseason.
…..
Current year SOS is a little confusing. Let’s say team A (ranked #13) played team B (ranked #20) in the third game of the season when both teams were 2-0. Team A wins by a field goal. Team B loses the rest of the season ended up 2-10. Did Team A beat a 2-0 team or a 2-10 team? Did they beat a Top 20 team or an unranked team? One of my pet peeves is when sportscasters calling a game late in the season talks about a Top 25 win, when the opponent is no longer in the ranking. Real life scenario: last season Florida St was pre-season ranked #10. They lost the Ireland game 24-21 to Georgia Tech who ended up 7-6. Florida St ended up 2-10, clearly not a very good team. During Tech’s bowl game, they showed the schedule that had #10 next to FSU’s name. Really? GT did not beat a Top 10 team but rather a 2-10 team and their SOS should show that. There is one more factor in SOS that makes a difference. The actual number is made up of the opponent’s SOS plus the opponent’s opponent’s SOS. A 2-10 team that played the toughest schedule in football will be more valuable than one that played an easier schedule.
…..
So, last season, I updated and simplified the math for both Performance and SOS, running both the old version (which is what we published) and the new version (in beta testing). The new version does work and makes more sense and that is what we will be using exclusively this season (until my brilliant mathematical daughter, JoJo, comes up with even better formulae). It also means that this preseason, we used the published version to create the SOS ranks – solely based on opponent’s wins the previous season, adjusted for home/neutral/away and not the actual formula. Next summer, we will use the new version which is based on… percent of perfection is the best way I can describe it and will use the same formula as the regular season. The values next season will be more accurate. The inaccuracy in the current method is, in part, based on the variety of games played: from 10 in the Ivy League to as many as 16 for playoff teams, both FCS and FBS (Core 4 and Group of 5). The new method is not impacted by that variation which will eliminate that unintentional but inherent bias. Any inaccuracy from preseason to actual season will be the variation in the performance of a given team (2-10 this year, 8-5 next year – not the same).
…..
But the PS SOS is just for fun and to help build the excitement (likes it needs any help) of the upcoming college football season. In the table below, (F) indicates a game against an FCS foe, (G) indicates a contest against a Group of 5 opponent, (4) indicates a non-conference Core 4 tryst, and (N) indicates a neutral site game. With no further ado, JoJo and I are thrilled to present the 2025 Big 12 – the 4th most challenged conference in college football.
| Team | Home | 2024 Record (Rank) | 2025 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away/Neutral Games |
| TCU Horned Frogs (1) | Fort Worth, TX | 9-4 (47) | 9.92 (4) | Abilene Christian (F), SMU (4), Colorado, Baylor, Iowa St, Cincinnati | North Carolina (4), Arizona St, Kansas St, West Virginia, BYU, Houston |
| West Virginia Mountaineers (2) | Morgantown, WV | 6-7 (75) | 9.14 (13) | Robert Morris (F), Pittsburgh (4), Utah, TCU, Colorado, Texas Tech | Ohio (G), Kansas, BYU, UCF, Houston, Arizona St |
| Iowa St Cyclones (3) | Ames, IA | 11-3 (12) | 8.80 (21) | South Dakota (F), Iowa (4), Arizona, BYU, Arizona St, Kansas | Kansas St (N), Arkansas St, Cincinnati, Colorado, TCU, Oklahoma St |
| Arizona Wildcats (4) | Tucson, AZ | 4-8 (82) | 8.56 (36) | Hawaii (G), Weber St (F), Kansas St, Oklahoma St, BYU, Kansas, Baylor | Iowa St, Houston, Colorado, Cincinnati, Arizona St |
| Utah Utes (5) | Salt Lake City, UT | 5-7 (71) | 8.36 (45) | Cal Poly (F), Texas Tech, Arizona St, Colorado, Cincinnati, Kansas St | UCLA (4), Wyoming (G), West Virginia, BYU, Baylor, Kansas |
| Colorado Buffaloes (6) | Boulder, CO | 9-4 (28) | 8.28 (47) | Georgia Tech (4), Delaware (G), Wyoming (G), BYU, Iowa St, Arizona, Arizona St | Houston, TCU, Utah, West Virginia, Kansas St |
| Arizona St Sun Devils (7) | Tempe, AZ | 11-3 (11) | 7.95 (58) | N Arizona (F), Texas St (G), TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, West Virginia, Arizona | Mississippi St (4), Baylor, Utah, Iowa St, Colorado |
| Oklahoma St Cowboys (7) | Stillwater, OK | 3-9 (60) | 7.95 (58) | Tennessee Martin (F), Tulsa (G), Baylor, Houston, Cincinnati, Kansas St, Iowa St | Oregon (4), Arizona, Texas Tech, Kansas, UCF |
| UCF Knights (9) | Orlando, FL | 4-8 (53) | 7.88 (63) | Jacksonville St (G), North Carolina A&T (F), North Carolina (4), Kansas, West Virginia, Houston, Oklahoma St | Kansas St, Cincinnati, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU |
| Kansas St Wildcats (10) | Manhattan, KS | 9-4 (23) | 7.81 (67) | North Dakota (F), Army (G), UCF, TCU, Texas Tech, Colorado | Iowa St (N), Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma St, Utah |
| Houston Cougars (11) | Houston, TX | 4-8 (80) | 7.64 (77) | Steph F Austin (F), Colorado, Texas Tech, Arizona, West Virginia, TCU | Rice (G), Oregon St (G), Oklahoma St, Arizona St, UCF, Baylor |
| Kansas Jayhawks (12) | Lawrence, KS | 5-7 (38) | 7.54 (82) | Fresno St (G), Wagner (G), West Virginia, Cincinnati, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Utah | Missouri (4), UCF, Texas Tech, Arizona, Iowa St |
| BYU Cougars (13) | Provo, UT | 11-2 (8) | 7.48 (85) | Portland St (F), Stanford (4), West Virginia, Utah, TCU, UCF | East Carolina (G), Colorado, Arizona, Iowa St, Texas Tech, Cincinnati |
| Baylor Bears (14) | Waco, TX | 8-5 (37) | 7.31 (94) | Auburn (4), Samford (F), Arizona St, Kansas St, UCF, Utah, Houston | SMU (4), Oklahoma St, TCU, Cincinnati, Arizona |
| Cincinnati Bearcats (15) | Cincinnati, OH | 5-7 (58) | 7.13 (103) | Bowling Green (G), Northwestern St (F), Iowa St, UCF, Baylro, Arizona, BYU | Nebraska (4N), Kansas, Oklahoma St, Utah, TCU |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders (16) | Lubbock, TX | 8-5 (40) | 6.83 (117) | Ark Pine Bluff (F), Kent St (G), Oregon St (G), Kansas, Oklahoma St, BYU, UCF | Utah, Houston, Arizona St, Kansas St, West Virginia |
…..
That’s it for today. Tune in for our next episode with the third most difficult conference. Please share the GCR with others in any of our locations: bit.ly/2019GCR or on LinkedIn under G. Robert Gettys or on our Facebook Page Gettys Computer Ranking – College Football.
As always, we thank you for reading and providing comments to help us improve, JoJo and G
