Welcome back college football fans. We’re getting close now: the NFL preseason is teasing us and college camps are in session. There’s some trash talking already and, my absolute favorite: the initial AP poll is out and the pundits are simultaneously saying it’s ridiculous to have a preseason poll (they are right) and why this ridiculous poll is wrong (based on absolutely nothing). But the key is, it’s August. The turfs have been repaired from last season, tickets have been sold, and fans are counting the days (first kickoff is in 11 days, but that’s another blog). Before we talk about the season’s early games, we have two more conferences to analyze for how much they challenge themselves based on an albeit silly mechanism of how opponents did last year. At least I’m not trying to argue who belongs in the playoffs before camps have broken.
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This week the 2nd most difficult average preseason SOS, or “B” position in our study of the 26 Division I conferences, belongs to the king of college football (winner of the 12 of the last 16 championships with 5 different champions and only missed one final since the playoffs began), the SEC. Why aren’t they #1? There is a reason for that and I’ll explain it next issue when I unveil the “A” conference. But this week is about the king. Last season the SEC led the NCAA with a 111-73 (.603) record and have an average PS SOS of 8.434 compared to 8.029 Power 5 average. Last year, they not only had both teams in the finals, but had a very successful non-conference regular season. They were 13-1 (Vanderbilt lost to E Tennessee St 23-3) against the FCS, an impressive 26-1 (Mississippi St lost to Memphis 31-29) versus the Group of 5, and 9-6 against their peer group, the Power 5. That puts them at a combined 48-8 (.857) in non-conference play. By comparison, no other FBS conference exceeded .750. But then came the bowl season. Playoffs not withstanding the SEC wasn’t very impressive at all. Every team qualified for a bowl except Vanderbilt (2-10). Texas A&M covided out of the Gator Bowl with Wake Forest. Against Power 5 competition, Alabama lost to Georgia in the championship game 33-18, Arkansas beat Penn St 24-10, LSU lost to Kansas St 20-42, Mississippi St lost to Texas Tech 42-20, Mississippi lost to Baylor 21-7, Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 before taking down the Crimson Tide, Kentucky topped Iowa 20-17, South Carolina beat North Carolina 38-21, and Tennessee dropped an OT game to Purdue 48-45. That’s a .500 5-5 record in those ten games, which is ok. It’s the games against the G5 teams that tarnished the luster just a bit. After going 26-1 in the regular season, Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6, Auburn lost to Houston 17-13, Florida lost to UCF 29-17 and Missouri lost to Army 24-22. That’s a very sub-par .250 1-3. That’s 5-7 against non-conference teams bringing the record to 53-15 (.779). This season there is only one SEC team that has a sub-.500 record for its 2022 opponents using the 2021 results. I’ve stated my disappointment in Notre Dame and Michigan (there are others as well that could be called out), and I feel the compunction to drive the point home against the defending champions. Last year the UGAdawgs ended up 10th in SOS rank primarily due to the Alabama, Michigan, Alabama finish. This season, after an officially neutral (in Atlanta) game against Oregon (10-4), they face FCS Samford (4-7), G5 Kent State (7-7), and the rival but hapless Georgia Tech (3-9). Two of the three SEC true home games are against losing teams (6-7 Auburn, Vanderbilt, 7-6 Tennessee). 3 of their away from home games are against 6-7 teams (Florida in Jacksonville, Missouri, and Mississippi St) with another against a 7-6 team (South Carolina). The only real challenge in conference is at 10-3 Kentucky. No Mississippi. No Alabama. No Arkansas. No Texas A&M. Those 4 are the other 8+ winners last year. Bold prediction: if Georgia doesn’t win the East, Kirby Smart will be on the warm seat (not hot for a couple more “bad” seasons). Unless they lose unexpectedly, Georgia will be double digit favorites in every game. Their PS SOS score is 7.356 which when compared to an average Division I schedule (7.348) is interesting to say the least. I repeat, they are the only team in the SEC facing a “losing opponent’s record” at 75-79 (.487). Next is Missouri at 79-74 (.516). 5 teams are facing .600+ schedules. It’s just a shame. In the table below, (F) means FCS, (G) means Group of 5, and (N) means neutral site. Here are all 14 from top to bottom, most challenged (including the top 2 schedules and 7 in the top 25) to, well, Georgia.
| Team | 21 W-L /SOS Rank | 22 PS SOS/ Rank | Conference Home | Conference Away | NC Home | NC Away | Summary |
| Vanderbilt (E) | 2-10/ 53 | 10.550/1 | Mississippi, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee (30-22) | Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky (43-13) | (F) Elon (6-5), Wake Forest (11-3) | (G) Hawaii (6-7), (G) N Illinois (9-5) | 105-55 (.656) |
| Auburn (W) | 6-7/2 | 9.684/2 | Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M (29-22) | Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama (44-12) | (F) Mercer 7-3, (G) San Jose St (5-7), Penn St (7-6), (G) W Kentucky (9-5) | — | 101-55 (.647) |
| Mississippi St (W) | 7-6/ 28 | 9.094/8 | Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia (37-16) | LSU, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi (39-15) | (G) Memphis (6-6), (G) Bowling Green (4-8), (F) E Tennessee St (11-2) | Arizona (1-11) | 98-58 (.628) |
| Arkansas (W) | 9-4/ 12 | 8.895/11 | South Carolina, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi (36-18) | (N) Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Auburn, Missouri (27-25) | (G) Cincinnati (13-1), (F) Missouri St (8-4), (G) Liberty (8-5) | (G) BYU (10-3) | 102-56 (.650) |
| Tennessee (E) | 7-6/7 | 8.758/15 | Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri (35-19) | LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Vanderbilt (29-24) | (G) Ball St (6-7), (G) Akron (2-10), (F) Tennessee Martin (10-3) | Pittsburgh (11-3) | 93-66 (.585) |
| South Carolina (E) | 7-6/ 30 | 8.655/17 | Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Tennessee (35-18) | Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida (27-24) | (G) Georgia St (8-5), (G) Charlotte (5-7), (F) South Carolina St (7-5) | Clemson (10-3) | 94-62 (.602) |
| Texas A&M (W) | 8-4/ 42 | 8.467/22 | Mississippi, Florida, LSU (22-17) | (N) Arkansas, Mississippi St, Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn (42-25) | (F) Sam Houston (11-1), (G) App St (10-4), Miami FL (7-5), (G) UMASS (1-11) | — | 93-63 (.596) |
| LSU (W) | 6-7/5 | 8.137/32 | Mississippi St, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama (37-17) | Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M (29-22) | (F) Southern (4-7), (G) New Mexico (3-9), (G) UAB (9-4) | (N) FSU (5-7) | 87-66 (.568) |
| Kentucky (E) | 10-3/ 48 | 7.841/44 | South Carolina, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, Georgia (30-23) | Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, Missouri (29-23) | (G) Miami OH (7-6), (F) Youngstown St (3-7), (G) N Illinois (9-5), Louisville (6-7) | — | 84-71 (.542) |
| Alabama (W) | 13-2/ 4 | 7.769/47 | Texas A&M, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, Auburn (23-27) | Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU (32-20) | (G) Utah St (11-3), (G) ULM (4-8), (F) Austin Peay (6-5) | Texas (5-7) | 81-70 (.536) |
| Florida (E) | 6-7/ 32 | 7.729/49 | Kentucky, Missouri, LSU, South Carolina (29-23) | Tennessee, (N) Georgia, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt (31-21) | Utah (10-4), (G) South Florida (2-10), (F) E Washington (10-3) | FSU (5-7) | 87-68 (.561) |
| Missouri (E) | 6-7/ 16 | 7.658/52 | Georgia, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas (35-18) | Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee (26-26) | (G) LA Tech (3-9), (F) Abilene Christian (5-6), (G) New Mexico St (2-10) | Kansas St (8-5) | 79-74 (.516) |
| Mississippi (W) | 10-3/ 29 | 7.488/61 | Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi St (36-18) | Vanderbilt, LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas (25-25) | (G) Troy (5-7), (F) C Arkansas (5-6), (G) Tulsa (7-6) | Georgia Tech (3-9) | 81-71 (.532) |
| Georgia (E) | 14-1/ 10 | 7.356/64 | Auburn, Vanderbilt, Tennessee (15-23) | South Carolina, Missouri, (N) Florida, Mississippi St, Kentucky (36-29) | (F) Samford (4-7), (G) Kent St (7-7), Georgia Tech (3-9) | (N) Oregon (10-4) | 75-79 (.487) |
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That’s it for today. Next time we’ll talk about the most challenged conference going into the 2022 season. If you like what you read, please share with others; otherwise, please comment so that I can make this blog better and more enjoyable. Thanks for reading and I’ll see you in a few days, G
