Hello greatest fans on Earth. Thanks to Auburn, the playoff picture got a little clearer and a lot less controversial, but nothing is yet in stone. I’ve put together some scenarios for the 7 legitimate contenders. I’ll talk about that more in a moment – it’s clearly a comment generating kind of thing. Thursday night, I’ll have the GCR predictions for each game. Before we get to all of the playoff talk, it is time to give an update on the conferences. Who are the pushovers and which conference is winning the coveted and just made up GCR Cup? I’m in a hotel right now, so instead of a cup, it’s a plastic glass that used to be wrapped in paper, but I’m sure it’s still coveted. Each conference commissioner will be all over me if I don’t send it immediately – but it’s not ready yet. Championship, bowl, and playoff games count, so there are are only a few conferences (all FCS) that don’t have any future games, but even those could get an SOS boost if there non-conference foes do well. So I won’t announce the FCS, Gof5, and Power 5 winners until January, so let’s hope the bosses can wait just a bit longer – things are tight at the top.
Let’s jump right into it. First a little explanation: in addition to the ranking(s) and best and worst team, I thought it’d be fun to look at how many 10-win teams each conference has and how many they could have if things work out in the post-season. So here’s the FCS, from worst to first:
| Conference | Non Conference Record (Pct) | Best Team | Worst Team | 10-Win Teams |
| Patriot | 10-30 (.250) | Holy Cross (167/48) | Bucknell (241/112) | 0 |
| Pioneer | 14-22 (.389) | Dayton (121/21) | Valparaiso (254/125) | 0 |
| SWAC | 15-24 (.385) | Alcorn St (105/12) | Texas Southern (255/126) | 0(1) |
| FCS Ind | 13-10 (.565) | Merrimack (182/59) | North Dakota (197/71) | 0 |
| Big Sky | 22-31 (.415) | Sacramento St (115/18) | N Colorado (243/114) | 0(4) |
| SoCon | 12-25 (.324) | Wofford (112/16) | W Carolina (249/120) | 0 |
| Big South | 20-20 (.500) | Kennesaw St (94/8) | Presbyterian (246/117) | 2 |
| Northeast | 14-24 (.368) | C Connecticut (84/4) | Bryant (233/104) | 1 |
| MEAC | 12-20 (.375) | Florida A&M (87/5) | Delaware St (252/123) | 0 |
| Ivy | 16-8 (.667) | Dartmouth (71/2) | Brown (250/121) | 0 |
| Ohio Valley | 17-21 (.447) | UT-Martin (83/3) | E Illinois (253/124) | 1 |
| Colonial | 27-21 (.563) | James Madison (66/1) | Rhode Island (234/105) | 1(2) |
| Southland | 16-19 (.457) | C Arkansas (93/7) | Lamar (230/101) | 0(3) |
| Mizz Valley | 23-18 (.561) | N Dakota St (92/6) | W Illinois (218/90) | 1(3) |
Missouri Valley Conference has the number 1 seed in N Dakota State, who also happen to be the defending champions, and are currently leading. The Colonial has the GCR #1 FCS team in James Madison who could push them up, but the Southland has 3 9-win teams eager for this weekend, and they have a chance to improve that non-conference record. No one else is close to the GCR Cup despite the Big Sky having 4 teams still in the playoffs. There’s still a lot of football left (8 playoff games this weekend, the SWAC championship, and the Celebration Bowl between the MEAC and SWAC) so much will change. By the way, Holy Cross at 7-6 was the only Patriot team with a .500 or better record. Go Crusaders!!!
Now on to the FBS. There’s a clear distinction between the Power 5 and the Group of 5. Notre Dame is included in the Independents, but they are the only Power 5 team in that group. Here we go, from worst to first:
| Conference | Non Conference Record (Pct) | Best Team | Worst Team | 10-Win Teams |
| C-USA | 24-32 (.429) | Florida Atl (38) | UTEP (228/129) | 0(3) |
| MAC | 18-30 (.375) | Ohio (50) | Akron (256/130) | 0(1) |
| FBS Ind | 26-34 (.433) | Notre Dame (18) | Massachusetts (194/126) | 1 |
| Sun | 22-18 (.550) | App State (19) | Texas St (169/121) | 2 |
| Mtn West | 31-18 (.633) | Boise St (16) | Colorado St (179/123) | 2(4) |
| American | 33-14 (.702) | Cincinnati (13) | Connecticut (217/128) | 3(5) |
| Big 12 | 24-6 (.800) | Baylor (5) | TCU (164/118) | 2 |
| ACC | 35-19 (.648) | Clemson (1) | Georgia Tech (133/104) | 1(2) |
| Pac 12 | 24-12 (.667) | Utah (11) | Stanford (130/103) | 2 |
| Big 10 | 34-8 (.810) | Ohio State (2) | Maryland (159/117) | 4(6) |
| SEC | 42-14 (.750) | LSU (3) | Arkansas (166/119) | 4(5) |
Don’t be fooled by the Pac 12 – they are FAR behind the Big 10 and SEC. The Power 5 Cup will go to whichever of those 2 conferences does better in the bowl season – it is as close as I’ve seen. Back to that in a minute. Once again the American is leading the Gof5 but just barely ahead of the giant-killing Mountain West. Like their big brothers, bowl games are going to decide the winner. One thing I’d like to point out. There is a lot of talk about Clemson’s weak schedule. Let’s look at the ACC as a whole. On one hand 10 out of 14 are bowl eligible (best in the Power 5 – the SEC also has 10 6-win teams but Missouri is not eligible). On the other hand only 3 conference currently have fewer than 2 10-win teams. Conference USA has none, but they could have 3 – Florida Atlantic and UAB each have 9 wins and will face off in the championship, so 1 is guaranteed. The loser will get another chance as will Louisiana Tech, also with 9 wins. There’s a decent chance they will end up with at least 2. The MAC has none, and only Central Michigan has a chance – but they have to win the championship game against Miami of Ohio AND win their bowl game. Either way they will end up with less than 2. The ACC has just one – 12-0 Clemson. Virginia has 9 wins so could get their 10th by knocking out Clemson (see below) or in a bowl game. I can’t give percentages yet because we don’t know the bowl games. And that is frustrating because by the time we know those, we’ll know the outcome of the championship games. I could get into really circular logic here so I’m moving on.
The SEC and the Big 10 have been the premier leagues more often than not in the last…pick a number of years. 8 of the GCR top 10 are in those two conferences, 8 of the GCR most difficult schedules are in those conferences. The best teams in those conferences are all but locks on the playoff and Georgia has a chance to join the club. 3 other teams are hoping UGA loses so that they can fight over the 4th spot. Clemson pretty much has to beat Virginia or they will likely be dropped. So, I thought it might be fun to put together scenarios for each of the 7 still in the hunt. I hope this brings comments or challenges. Let’s get a discussion going on this. Here’s the dartboard:
| Team (GCR) -CFP Rank | Scenario/IN | Scenario/Out |
| Ohio State (2)-1 | Any other scenario | Lose by 28 to Wisconsin |
| LSU (3)-2 | Any other scenario | Lose by 28 to Georgia |
| Clemson (1)-3 | Win or Lose 1-score to Virginia AND Utah, Georgia, and Oklahoma lose | Lose by any amount AND Utah wins and UGA loses |
| Georgia (4)-4 | Win or Lose 1-score to LSU AND Clemson, Utah, and Oklahoma lose | Lose AND Clemson and Utah or Baylor win |
| Utah (11) -5 | Win in a strong game AND UGA lose AND Baylor win or Oklahoma 3 point win | Lose or Georgia Win or Baylor/Oklahoma win by 20 or win against Oregon ugly |
| Oklahoma (36)-7 | Win by 10 AND Utah and Georgia lose or Utah wins ugly | Lose or win AND UGA and Utah win |
| Baylor (5)-7 | Win by 14 or Win AND UGA and Utah lose | Lose or win AND UGA and Utah win |
That’s it for tonight – it’s been a long day and tomorrow is going to be about the same. The G-man needs some shut-eye. Please comment and share with others. Thanks, G
