Welcome back college football fans. I had a great 3-week vacation in Europe which thankfully was between heat waves. It’s brutal out there so please stay hydrated and cool. I didn’t lug my laptop around or I would have posted while traveling since…WTH is going on with expansion? Southern Cal and UCLA decide to ditch the Pac-12 (can’t really blame them for that) to join the Midwestern Big 10. Expansion for BiG makes sense to try to keep up with the SEC (adding Texas and Oklahoma ~2025) and pushing the western borders from Nebraska to California. I can’t wait to see how many fans travel (either way) for the first Rutgers/UCLA game. Of course, the flurry of “what happens next?” news stories came out about additional SEC growth to “keep up”. Sankey (SEC commissioner) has put the immediate kibosh on that topic which makes sense. Why? The SEC already owns the most playoff appearances, championships, and most teams with a title (in both the playoff and BCS era). Compare the new pairs: Oklahoma and Texas versus Southern Cal and UCLA. Texas has become an annual underperformer, granted, but Oklahoma is a recently good team consistently. Are they ready for week in week out SEC grind? We will find out, but both of these are quality football gains (not to mention baseball, softball, etc). Southern Cal is the perennial underperformer for the Pac-12 but with a new coach (who might not be there by the time the transition happens) could make some noise, but it’s been a solid minute since they’ve been…important so I’m going to have to be convinced they have what it takes. UCLA tends to beat up out of conference teams, but year after year come up short in the worst Power 5 conference – so can they step up to the big leagues (let’s be honest, the SEC and Big 10 are the cream)? Again, I’m not sure they have shown the consistency. I see them as the Florida St and Miami FL add to the ACC. Those teams were supposed to raise the bar and immediately contend with Clemson, but that didn’t happen, and the conference suffered for it long term. I do think the SEC will think about expansion if a) BiG gets Notre Dame and another “name” like Virginia Tech or Clemson. I think the Hokies and Tigers would be a better fit in the SEC, but “losing” them would spur the SEC to action. They would probably grab Miami FL and maybe UNC/Duke combination.
…..
The FCS was not without drama while I was out of the country with 2 major changes. First Dixie St (in, you guessed it, Utah), is no more changing their university’s name to Utah Tech (which is a bit clearer). The Trailblazers will be competing in the newly-formed WAC this year. Speaking of the Wacky WAC, two incoming members decided not to transfer and return to the Southland Conference: Lamar and Incarnate Word. This announcement created a rescheduling for all schools in those two conferences, so…yay! I know my friend Steve will be happy to know the GCR is now reprogrammed and ready for week 0.
…..
While those changes impacted some FCS Preseason SOS rankings, I’m not going to go back to recreate them: the changes weren’t that impactful and it’s time to focus on the FBS. Kickoff is just 38 days away and we’ve got 11 conferences (including the independents) to talk about. Today we will pick up where we left off and talk about the 2 FBS conferences with the weakest average Preseason SOS. For a reminder, PS SOS is calculated a little simpler than during the regular season, but with the same starting point. Essentially, a team’s PS SOS is an average of opponent’s wins from the previous year with these adjustments: League (P5 opponents count more than G5 opponents which count more than FCS opponents which count more than non-D1 opponents) and Location (Away games count more than Neutral games which count more than Home Games). The average PS SOS for all of the FBS (Power 5 and Group of 5) is 7.348 and the average Group of 5 is 6.697. FYI, the tables are going to be slightly different in the FBS. Teams can’t control their conference schedule and while there is often a wide disparity there, I want to show their non-conference opponents which are choices. The codes I’ll use are (F) for FCS teams, (P) for Power 5 teams (used for Group of 5 conferences), and (N) for neutral site games.
…..
Up first in the 11th or “K” spot is the weakest SOS conference in the FBS, Conference USA. They lost 3 members over the summer (Old Dominion, Marshall, and Southern Mississippi) and are schedule to lose more in the next couple of seasons, but this year’s 11 members were 68-72 last year and have an average PS SOS of 6.472 (99.2 average rank). None of the teams are in the top 50 (there are 131 FBS teams this year) and 4 are in the bottom 25 of the FBS (no FBS team has a PS SOS lower than an FCS team). Their bottom 25 ranking will be shown in the Team column. Here are the 11:
| Team | ’21 W-L | ’21 SOS Rank | ’22 PS SOS | Rank | NC Home | NC Away |
| Rice – W | 4-8 | 80 | 7.587 | 54 | McNeese (F), Louisiana | Southern Cal (P), Houston |
| LA Tech – W | 3-9 | 100 | 7.214 | 69 | Steph F Austin (F) | Missouri (P), Clemson (P), South Alabama |
| Charlotte – E | 5-7 | 129 | 6.546 | 94 | William & Mary (F), Maryland (P) | Georgia St, South Carolina (P) |
| UTSA – W | 12-2 | 114 | 6.488 | 96 | Houston, Texas Southern (F) | Army, Texas (P) |
| FAU – E | 5-7 | 108 | 6.473 | 98 | SELA (F), UCF | Ohio, Purdue (P) |
| UAB – W | 9-4 | 73 | 6.361 | 102 | Alabama A&M (F), Ga Southern | Liberty, LSU (P) |
| North Texas – W | 6-7 | 120 | 6.324 | 105 | SMU, Texas Southern (F) | UNLV, Memphis |
| UTEP – W (19) | 7-6 | 113 | 6.227 | 113 | New Mexico St, Boise St | Oklahoma (P), New Mexico |
| Middle Tennesse – E (16) | 7-6 | 89 | 6.151 | 116 | Tennessee St (F) | James Madison, Colorado St, Miami FL (P) |
| W Kentucky – E (15) | 9-5 | 115 | 6.143 | 117 | Austin Peay (F), Troy | Hawaii, Indiana (P), Auburn (P) |
| FIU – E (5) | 1-11 | 116 | 5.682 | 127 | Bryant (F), UCONN | Texas St, New Mexico St |
…..
In the 10th or “J” spot, we have the up-and-coming Sun Belt. Over the last few years, Louisiana, App St, and Coastal Carolina have shined in the national spotlight. They took the 3 teams from Conference USA and added this year’s promotee, James Madison previously of the Colonial League who were perennial FCS playoff contenders. Don’t expect that this year, but they will adjust – it’s a really solid program. The 14 teams were a combined 93-83 last year with 4 10-game winners, counting JMU, and average a PS SOS of 6.556 good for an average of 94.3 in position. The dichotomy of this conference is they have 6 teams in the top 75 PS SOS, including our first in the top 50 (Ga Southern) and 8 in the bottom 25 (FBS) including the easiest FBS schedule (on paper) this season: Louisiana. Here are all 14 schools:
| Team | ’21 W-L | ’21 SOS Rank | ’22 PS SOS | Rank | NC Home | NC Away |
| Ga Southern – E | 3-9 | 83 | 7.740 | 48 | Morgan St (F), Ball St | Nebraska, UAB |
| ULM – W | 4-8 | 64 | 7.692 | 51 | Nicholls | Texas (P), Alabama (P), Army |
| Troy – W | 5-7 | 96 | 7.499 | 60 | Alabama A&M (F), Army | Mississippi (P), W Kentucky |
| Old Dominion -E | 6-7 | 109 | 7.356 | 64 | Virginia Tech (P), Liberty | East Carolina, Virginia (P) |
| Marshall – E | 7-6 | 95 | 7.037 | 73 | Norfolk St (F), Gardner Webb (F) | Notre Dame (P), Bowling Green |
| Georgia St – E | 8-5 | 87 | 7.010 | 87 | UNC (P), Charlotte | South Carolina (P), Army |
| James Madison – E (24) | 12-2 | 131 | 6.291 | 108 | Middle Tennessee, Norfolk St (F) | Louisville (P) |
| Arkansas St – W (23) | 2-10 | 117 | 6.280 | 109 | Grambling St (F), UMASS | Ohio St (P), Memphis |
| Southern Miss – W (22) | 3-9 | 103 | 6.270 | 110 | Liberty, Northwestern St (F) | Miami FL (P), Tulane |
| App St – E (12) | 10-4 | 68 | 6.055 | 120 | UNC (P), Citadel (F), Robert Morris (F) | Texas A&M (P) |
| Texas St – W (11) | 4-8 | 88 | 6.016 | 121 | FIU, Houston Baptist (F) | Nevada, Baylor (P) |
| South Alabama – W (8) | 5-7 | 116 | 5.911 | 124 | Nicholls (F), LA Tech | C Michigan, UCLA (P) |
| Coastal Carolina – E (6) | 11-2 | 130 | 5.857 | 126 | Army, Gardner Webb (F), Buffalo | Virginia (P) |
| Louisiana – W (1) | 13-1 | 126 | 4.768 | 131 | SELA (F), E Michigan | Rice, Florida St (P) |
…..
That’s it for today. With 9 more to go and just 38 more days, expect more to come. My current plan, which could change at any time based on my travel schedule, is to have 2 G5 per post, like today’s, and then have each P5 conference have their own. That’s 7 more posts before the season starts so look for 1-2 per week. I hope you are getting excited about the season!! Thanks for reading. As always if you have improvement ideas or questions, please put them put them in the comments. If you like what you see, please share with others. Later, G
