Welcome back oh great and wonderful college football fans! So far, we’ve reviewed 23 Division I conferences, including the independents, from the Pioneer League through the 4th most difficult conference (as measured by the GCR Preseason Strength of Schedule algorithm), the ACC. There are just 3 left and 16 days until the initial kickoffs of the best season in all of sports. The nip won’t be in the air yet, but we know fall is coming when the dust rises and the pigskin flies. Let’s jump right in.
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Since the beginning of the BCS/Playoff era (1998/99 season), 21 different teams have appeared and 13 of them have one at least one championship. With the exception of the independents (only Notre Dame has received a bid and they are 0 for 2 keeping in mind that in 2020 when they lost the semis they were representing the ACC), the hapless Pac 12 (one vacated win by Southern Cal (2004) and winless Oregon and Washington), and the brilliant run of Cincinnati (only to lose in the semis) of the American, every conference has a least a .500 rate of teams that have a championship vs teams that made an appearance except for one. For example, the ACC has FSU (1999, 2013) and Clemson (2016, 2018) who have championships, but Notre Dame (2020) appeared but didn’t win – so a 2 out of 3 .667. Even the defunct Big East was 1 for 2 (Miami FL won in 2001 and Virginia Tech lost in their only appearance). The SEC has the only perfect mark of 6 for 6 with Tennessee (1998), LSU (2003, 2007, 2019), Florida (2006, 2008), Alabama (2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2020), Auburn (2010), Georgia (2021) all being champions. But this post isn’t about them. This is about the powerhouse conference (by consensus) that only has 1 team (that won twice) to win a championship in the last 24 years: the Big Ten. Yes, Ohio St (2002, 2014) is it. Storied programs in Penn St, Michigan, and Nebraska and recent potentials in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota just haven’t been able to punch through. Ohio St was in the BCS Championship game three times (they lost in 2006 and 2007), but no other Big Ten team was selected (note: Nebraska lost in 2001 while a member of the Big 12). During the playoff era (since 2014), Michigan State broke through receiving an invitation in 2015 but lost (that was the first of the Alabama/Clemson matchups). Last year, Michigan joined their instate rival with a semifinal loss (which led to the 3rd all-SEC final). So, the 13 non Buckeye teams are a combined 0-2 in 24 years. OHST is 2-3 in finals (lost in 2020) 2-2 in semifinal games giving them a 4-5 record, 4-7 for the conference. None of this has anything to do with 2022 PS SOS, but it is important to understand the conference is not recently-historically deep. Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota surprise once in a while, and recently, but there’s good and there’s great. Only 1 team has been great in the last 24 years. That’s even more important as this current wave of expansion is underway (not over yet, but that’s another post). To keep the status of powerhouse conference going toe to toe with the big bad SEC (14 championships in the last 24 years), and the entire monetary-tangential reason for expansion, is depth for the post-season, i.e., dollars. To the conference’s credit, they have had appearances in the playoffs for the last three years (Ohio St lost in the semis in 2019, then lost the final in 2020, then Michigan lost in the semis last year). Since I’ve started looking at preseason SOS and as long as I’ve looked at conference end of year SOS, the Big Ten has been first or second every time. But not this year. The 14 schools combined for a 103-77 (.572) record last year and have an average of 8.096 for PS SOS compared to the FBS average of 8.029. During the regular season they were 7-0 against FCS teams, 18-3 against Group of 5 (Illinois lost to UTSA, Minnesota lost to Bowling Green, and Indiana lost to Cincinnati), and they were 8-6 vs non-conference Power 5 opponents. They played 10 (including 5-8 Rutgers who subbed for Covid-out Texas A&M) bowl games, all against P5 schools, with a very respectable 6-4 record. That gave them a 39-13 (.750) record out of the Big Ten. One reason the conference ranked third is they only play 7 road games (4 against Power 5) outside of conference games and only one of them (Indiana at Cincinnati) is against a team that finished above .500 last year. Oh, and Rutgers plays 2 non-conference road games. Only 5 of the 14 teams have a non-conference schedule that totals >.500 (Indiana’s NC opponents were 26-13 last year, Iowa 26-15 all at home), Ohio St 20-18 all at home, Nebraska 19-17 all at home, and Illinois 19-17 all at home). As a reminder, (G) means Group of 5 opponent, (F) means FCS opponent, and (N) means neutral site game. Here is the whole set from most challenged to easiest path:
| Team | ’21 W-L/SOS Rank | ’22 PS SOS/ Rank | Conference Home | Conference Away | NC Home | NC Away | Summary |
| Indiana (E) | 2-10/1 | 9.212/7 | Illinois, Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, Penn St (40-25) | Nebraska, Ohio St, Rutgers, Michigan St (30-21) | (F) Idaho (4-7), (G) W Kentucky (9-5) | (G) Cincinnati (13-1) | 96-59 (.619) |
| Rutgers (E) | 5-8/37 | 8.652/18 | Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Penn St (34-31) | Ohio St, Minnesota, Michigan St, Maryland (38-14) | (F) Wagner (0-11) | Boston College (6-6), (G) Temple (3-9) | 81-71 (.532) |
| Northwestern (W) | 3-9/43 | 8.580/19 | Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio St (25-13) | (N) Nebraska, Penn St, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue (45-33) | Duke (3-9), (F) S Illinois (8-5), (G) Miami OH (7-6) | — | 88-66 (.571) |
| Iowa (W) | 10-4/ 45 | 8.578/20 | Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska (27-24) | Rutgers, Illinois, Ohio St, Purdue, Minnesota (39-25) | (F) South Dakota St (11-4), Iowa St (7-6), (G) Nevada (8-5) | — | 92-64 (.590) |
| Penn St (E) | 7-6/8 | 8.517/21 | Northwestern, Minnesota, Ohio St, Maryland, Michigan St (41-23) | Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Rutgers (28-24) | (G) Ohio (3-9), (G) C Michigan (9-4) | Auburn (6-7) | 87-67 (.565) |
| Maryland (E) | 7-6/21 | 8.381/24 | Michigan St, Purdue, Northwestern, Ohio St, Rutgers (39-25) | Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn St (30-22) | (G) Buffalo (4-8), (G) SMU (8-4) | (G) Charlotte (5-7) | 86-66 (.566) |
| Ohio St (E) | 11-2/ 23 | 8.221/28 | Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa Indiana, Michigan (38-28) | Michigan St, Penn St, Northwestern, Maryland (28-23) | Notre Dame (11-2), Arizona St (2-10), (G) Toledo (7-6) | — | 86-69 (.554) |
| Nebraska (W) | 3-9/3 | 8.131/33 | Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin (25-25) | (N) Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa (39-27) | (F) North Dakota (5-6), (G) Ga Southern (3-9), Oklahoma (11-2) | — | 83-69 (.546) |
| Wisconsin (W) | 9-4/19 | 8.085/36 | Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota (30-21) | Ohio St, Northwestern, Michigan St, Iowa, Nebraska (38-26) | (F) Illinois St (4-7), Washington St (7-6), (G) New Mexico St (2-10) | — | 83-70 (.542) |
| Illinois (W) | 5-7/38 | 8.036/38 | Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan St, Purdue (39-14) | Indiana, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern (29-34) | (G) Wyoming (7-6), Virginia (6-6), (F) Chattanooga (6-5) | — | 87-65 (.572) |
| Michigan St (E) | 11-2/ 34 | 7.800/45 | Minnesota, Ohio St, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Indiana (36-28) | Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, Penn St (31-21) | (G) W Michigan (8-5), (G) Akron (2-10) | Washington (4-8) | 81-72 (.529) |
| Minnesota (W) | 9-4/63 | 7.155/72 | Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa (27-25) | Michigan St, Illinois, Penn St, Nebraska, Wisconsin (35-28) | (G) New Mexico St (2-10), (F) W Illinois (2-9), Colorado (4-8) | — | 70-80 (.467) |
| Purdue (W) | 9-4/25 | 7.033/74 | Penn St, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern (23-28) | Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana (32-31) | (F) Indiana St (5-6), (G) FAU (5-7) | Syracuse (5-7) | 70-79 (.470) |
| Michigan (E) | 12-2/ 15 | 6.908/79 | Maryland, Penn St, Michigan St, Nebraska, Illinois (33-30) | Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers, Ohio St (28-24) | (G) Colorado St (3-9), (G) Hawaii (6-7), (G) UCONN (1-11) | — | 71-81 (.467) |
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That’s it for the “C” schedule conference. I have to admit, just like in the Independents’ study, I can’t help but be a little disappointed by Minnesota’s 8-27 (.228) non-conference opponents and Michigan’s all Group of 5 and STILL 10-27 (.270). If either of these teams expects to be in the playoffs, they better be perfect 13-0 or maybe lose a close Big Ten Championship game, because this is just embarrassing. I know, I know, the schedules are often made out in advance (so which of Colorado St, Hawaii, and UCONN did Michigan anticipate a challenge from when scheduling?) and they don’t have control over in conference (I’ll buy that, although it does give me an idea for a future post), but still. I would rather have 2 10-4 or 11-3 teams in the finals who had to scratch to get there (compare to NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, pick your poison) than see 2 14-0 teams who only had one or two big games along the way. But, I’m an idealist.
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That’s it for today. Tune in next time for the “B” or second most difficult conference, PS SOS wise. If you have suggestions for improvement or questions, make a comment. If you like these posts, please forward the link and let’s grow the readership. Thanks, G
