Happy Sunday night to the billions of GCR readers. Yes, I’m a little tired after the drive back from Starkville. We start this week by reporting another Power 5 head coaching job is open. Georgia Tech joins Nebraska and Arizona St in the early head coach hunt. Interestingly each came after a Group of 5 loss (Ga Southern over Nebraska, E Michigan over Arizona St, and a favored UCF over Georgia Tech). Ga Southern lost its next game to UAB and E Michigan lost its next game to Buffalo. UCF hosts SMU next Saturday – hmmm?
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I mentioned in G’s Expectations that the Pac 12 was running out of undefeated teams. It got me thinking about how each conference is doing after week 4, now that most teams have played at least one conference game. In the tables below, “Record” will look like 4-3-2 where 4 is the number of winning teams, 3 the number of losing teams, and 2 the number of .500 teams. Here’s the breakdown starting with the FCS:
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| Conference (Teams) | Undefeated Teams | Winless Teams | Record | Best Team | Worst Team |
| ASUN (6) | — | — | 2-3-1 | Austin Peay (4-1/138) | N Alabama (1-3/259) |
| Big Sky (12) | Montana (4-0/107), Sacramento St (3-0/122), Weber St (4-0/105) | Idaho St (0-4/229), Portland St (0-3/168) | 4-6-2 | Weber St | Cal Poly (1-2/255) |
| Big South (6) | — | Charleston Southern (0-4/193), Robert Morris (0-3/232) | 0-6-0 | Charleston Southern | Bryant (1-3 /258) |
| Colonial (13) | Delaware (4-0/103) | Maine (0-3/238), Stony Brook (0-3/237) | 6-3-4 | Delaware | Maine |
| Ivy (8) | Columbia (2-0/123), Harvard (2-0/142), Penn (2-0/137), Princeton (2-0/139) | — | 4-0-4 | Columbia | Cornell (1-1/ 250) |
| MEAC (6) | NC Central (4-0/121) | Norfolk St (0-4/216) | 1-4-1 | NC Central | Howard (1-3/252) |
| Missouri Valley (11) | — | W Illinois (0-4/186) | 4-4-3 | North Dakota St (3-1/146) | N Iowa (1-3/239) |
| Northeast (8) | Stonehill (2-0/140) | C Connecticut (0-4/249), Long Island (0-4/246), Wagner (0-3/212) | 1-4-3 | Stonehill | C Connecticut |
| Ohio Valley (7) | — | Murray St (0-4/210), Tennessee St (0-3/200) | 2-4-1 | SEMO (3-1/158) | E Illinois (1-3/256) |
| Patriot (7) | Holy Cross (4-0/112) | Bucknell (0-3/253) | 2-5-0 | Holy Cross | Georgetown (1-3/257) |
| Pioneer (11) | — | Drake (0-4/245) | 5-5-1 | Davidson (3-1/157) | San Diego (1-3/261) |
| SWAC (12) | Jackson St (4-0/106) | Alabama A&M (0-4/225), Mississippi Valley (0-4/211) | 1-6-5 | Jackson St | Grambling St (1-3/248) |
| SoCon (9) | — | Wofford (0-4/228) | 4-3-2 | Mercer (3-1/145) | Citadel (1-2/247) |
| Southland (8) | — | Lamar (0-4/242), Nicholls (0-4/204) | 1-5-2 | Incarnate Word (3-1/150) | Northwestern St (1-3/243) |
| WAC (6) | — | — | 3-2-1 | Abilene Christian (3-1/159) | Utah Tech (1-3/233) |
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The 130 FCS schools have 12 perfect teams led by FCS #1 Delaware. They also have 20 teams that haven’t tasted sweet victory yet. Only 39 of the teams have winning records (and 31 more are .500) which makes sense when you consider they are 9-97 (.084) vs FBS teams. Now let’s look at those FBS schools and figure out how they are doing.
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| Conference (Teams) | Undefeated Teams | Winless Teams | Record | Best Team | Worst Team |
| ACC (14) | Clemson (4-0/12), Florida St (4-0/11), NC St (4-0/10), Syracuse (4-0/14) | — | 8-2-4 | NC St | Virginia Tech (2-2/116) |
| American (11) | — | — | 4-2-5 | Cincinnati (3-1/45) | South Florida (1-3/136) |
| Big 12 (10) | Kansas (4-0/15), Oklahoma St (3-0/19), TCU (3-0/18) | — | 8-0-2 | Kansas | West Virginia (2-2/59) |
| Big Ten (14) | Michigan (4-0/4), Ohio St (4-0/8), Penn St (4-0/5), Minnesota (4-0/3) | — | 9-2-3 | Minnesota | Northwestern (1-3/132) |
| Conference USA (11) | — | — | 3-6-2 | W Kentucky (3-1/54) | Charlotte (1-4/148) |
| Indies (7) | — | — | 2-4-1 | Notre Dame (2-2/47) | UMASS (1-3/143) |
| MAC (12) | — | — | 0-8-4 | Ohio (2-2/75) | E Michigan (2-2/135) |
| Mountain West (12) | —- | Colorado St (0-4/85) | 4-5-3 | Air Force (3-1/62) | Hawaii (1-4/126) |
| Pac 12 (12) | Southern Cal (4-0/9), UCLA (4-0/16), Washington (4-0/17) | Colorado (0-4/46) | 8-3-1 | Southern Cal | Arizona St (1-3/109) |
| SEC (14) | Georgia (4-0/2), Kentucky (4-0/13), Tennessee (4-0/7), Alabama (4-0/1), Mississippi (4-0/6) | — | 11-0-3 | Alabama | South Carolina (2-2/77) |
| Sun Belt (14) | Coastal Carolina (4-0/29), James Madison (3-0/20) | Georgia St (0-4/133) | 4-2-8 | James Madison | Georgia St |
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There is a separation, as we would expect, between the Group of 5 (American, C-USA, Independents, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun) and the Power 5. I know, Notre Dame is a P5 team, but this year, I’m keeping them in the Indies. The G5 has just 2 remaining perfect teams and both are in the Sun Belt (East), but they only have 2 winless teams (Colorado St and Georgia St). Only 17 of the 67 teams have winning records (and 23 more are .500). That makes sense when you consider they are a combined 15-74 (.168) vs the Power 5 and 49-8 (860) vs the FCS. The FBS has 19 perfect teams (and 13 .500), but just one who hasn’t got a W yet. Colorado has played the most difficult schedule according to the GCR losing to TCU (3-0/18), at Air Force (3-1/62), at Minnesota (4-0/3), and UCLA (4-0/16) – a combined 14-1 record. They are at Arizona (2-2/72) next week so maybe they can join the club.
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In today’s expectation, I said I would dive into the 12-team playoff structure. It may change, but it looks like the highest rated conference champions will be in along with the 6 highest rated non-champions regardless of conference, which guarantees a Group of 5 participant. The top 4 will get byes. Based on these rules, here is the current GCR 12-team picture. It is very Big Ten/SEC heavy because they dominate the top 10. Obviously, a lot of these teams play each other, and changes are expected. But this table will demonstrate how some relatively low-ranking teams may be in the playoff and how really good teams could end up with unfavorable seeds.
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| Seed/Team (Record/Rank) | Conference | Seed/Team (Record/Rank) | Conference |
| 1 – Alabama (4-0/1) | SEC | BYE | — |
| 2 – Minnesota (4-0/3) | Big Ten | BYE | — |
| 3 – Southern Cal (4-0/9) | Pac 12 | BYE | — |
| 4 – NC St (4-0/10) | ACC | BYE | — |
| 5 – Kansas (4-0/15) | Big 12 | 12 – Ohio St (4-0/8) | Big Ten |
| 6 – James Madison (3-0/20) | Sun Belt | 11 – Tennessee (4-0/7) | SEC |
| 7 – Georgia (4-0/2) | SEC | 10 – Mississippi (4-0/6) | SEC |
| 8 – Michigan (4-0/4) | Big Ten | 9 – Penn St (4-0/5) | Big Ten |
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And we close today with our normal FBS conference records with the Group of 5 listed first. The parenthetical number after the conference is the number of conference game played last week/year to date. The other parenthetical numbers are year to date. I’ve sorted the data by overall winning percentage year to date, best to worst. Note: Notre Dame is including in the Indies but is counted as a P5 team for their opponents. Thanks for reading. If you have concerns, corrections, or questions, please post in the comments. If you like what you are reading, please forward/share to/with others. Thanks, G
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| Conference | vs Power 5 | vs Group of 5 | Vs FCS | Overall |
| American (1/2) | 2-3 .400 (3-13 .188) | 4-2 .667 (13-5 .722) | 0-0 (8-2 .800) | 6-5 .545 (24-20 .545) |
| Sun Belt (5/6) | 0-0 (4-12 .250) | 8-5 .615 (15-14 .517) | 1-0 (11-0) | 9-5 .643 (30-26 .536) |
| Mtn West (2/4) | 0-1 (1-14 .067) | 4-5 .444 (12-9 .571) | 0-1 (9-3 .750) | 4-7 .364 (22-26 .458) |
| C-USA (1/3) | 1-2 .333 (1-9 .100) | 2-4 .333 (11-15 .423) | 1-0 (9-1 .900) | 4-6 .400 (21-25 .457) |
| Indies (0/0) | 1-1 .500 (4-7 .364) | 3-1 .750 (6-9 .400) | 0-0 (3-0) | 4-2 .667 (13-16 .448) |
| MAC (1/2) | 1-4 .200 (2-19 .095) | 1-5 .167 (5-11 .313) | 1-0 (9-2 .818) | 3-9 .250 (16-32 .333) |
| SEC (4/8) | 4-4 .500 (15-12 .556) | 6-0 (20-1 .952) | 0-0 (9-0) | 10-4 .714 (44-13 .772) |
| Big 12 (3/4) | 5-3 .625 (11-7 .611) | 1-0 (10-1 .909) | 0-0 (8-0) | 6-3 .667 (26-8 .765) |
| ACC (2/6) | 2-4 .333 (12-13 .480) | 2-2 .500 (12-3 .800) | 1-0 (13-0) | 5-6 .455 (37-16 .698) |
| Big Ten (4/7) | 4-4 .500 (12-13 .480) | 2-2 .500 (19-4 .826) | 1-0 (8-1 .889) | 7-6 .538 (39-18 .684) |
| Pac 12 (6/7) | 6-6 .500 (9-14 .391) | 0-0 (12-2 .857) | 0-0 (10-0) | 6-6 .500 (31-16 .660) |
