Happy Thursday and, with just 16 days left and 6 blogs to write before week 0 kickoff, the frequency will increase. Of course, that acceleration coincides, as it does every year, with the Power 5 conferences. We’ve tackled the FCS from the lone independent, Kennesaw St, through the 13 conferences, then moved through the 5 Group of 5 conferences as well as the FBS Independents, and now it’s time for the big boys, alphabetically, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC. I talked about this a couple of months ago, but it may be time for a refresher. I am not ranking teams on their expected performance in 2023. All 261 teams start out the season tied for first or last, your preference. But a couple of years ago, I wanted to have something to build to the kickoff to, I guess, get us all even more in the mood for the beginning of the season. So, I came up with a method to provide an idea of what each team is facing in the coming months. It is not the same Strength of Schedule (SOS) I use in the regular season (which is much more complicated), but it does give an estimate. Going back over a decade to when the inking of the GCR was just starting, the Preseason SOS (PS SOS) I use for this series is close to the original SOS formula. It’s pretty simple: team A has team B on its schedule and B was 7 games last year (I don’t count losses for the PS SOS). Some preseason analyses you may have seen online stop there. Opponent’s winning percentage (that would put South Carolina as the most challenged team: spoiler alert, not in the GCR). There are 2 other factors that play into the GCR PS SOS: where the game is played and what category was the opponent last season. Let me break that down. A home game is generally an easier game, even if you are playing last year’s Natty, Georgia. So, team A would receive no location factor bonus if the game was at home, but would receive one if the game was at team B. A neutral site gets a lesser bonus. So, for every game, one team is getting the location bonus, the other team is not, OR both teams are getting the neutral site bonus. While the GCR does not have preseason biases, there are built in factors based on whether the team is a Power 5, Group of 5, FCS, or non-division I team. In the PS SOS formula, team A would receive no league penalty or bonus if team B is in the same league as team A. Playing up (ex: Group of 5 playing Power 5) gains a bonus while playing down (ex: Power 5 playing Group of 5) gains a penalty. The farther away from the same increases the penalty or bonus (ex: Power 5 playing FCS). The key thing this year especially is there were many promotions from one league to a higher league (ex: BYU, Cincinnati, etc., to the Big 12 and Jacksonville St, etc, to the Group of 5). The bonus/penalty calculations are based on last year’s records for a team’s opponents including last year’s league. For bowl consideration playing Jax St doesn’t count as a second FCS opponent this year, but their record from last year was on an FCS schedule. (spoiler alert: that’s one reason South Carolina has a very high opponent’s winning percentage, but does not have the most difficult schedule).
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With all of that, and the fact that the Big 12 accepted 4 promotions from Group of 5 status, one might think they would have the overall weakest schedules in Power 5 football. It would be logical, but it would be wrong. That dubious title goes to none other than the Atlantic Coast Conference. The ACC’s 14 members have an average PS SOS of 7.8946, compared to the Power 5 average of 8.1979. In fact, only 4 teams are above the Power 5 mean (with the most difficult schedule being just the 22nd nationally) and 3 teams have a PS SOS less than the FBS (Power 5 and Group of 5) average of 7.3955. As a reminder, (N) indicates a neutral site game, (G) indicates a Group of 5 opponent (in 2023), and (F) indicates an FCS opponent (in 2023). Here’s the detail:
| Team/ Conf Rank | PS SOS/ Rank | ’22 Record/ SOS Rank | ’23 Opp’s W-L | Conf Home | Conf Away/ Neutral | Non-Conf Home | Non-Conf Away/ Neutral |
| Wake Forest (1) | 8.497/22 | 8-5/38 | 87-64 (.576) | (32-19) Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida St, NC St | (30-21) Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke Syracuse | (13-11) (F) Elon, Vanderbilt | (12-13) (G) Old Dominion, Notre Dame |
| Georgia Tech (2) | 8.466/23 | 5-7/2 | 86-65 (.570) | (19-20) Boston College, North Carolina, Syracuse | (35-25) (N) Louisville, Wake Forest, Miami FL, Virginia Clemson | (24-15) (F) South Carolina St, (G) Bowling Green, Georgia | (8-5) Mississippi |
| Clemson (3) | 8.451/24 | 11-3/24 | 83-66 (.557) | (32-20) Florida St, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina | (29-22) Duke, Syracuse, Miami FL, NC St | (16-19) (F) Charleston Southern, (G) FAU, Notre Dame | (8-5) South Carolina |
| Duke (4) | 8.331/27 | 9-4/89 | 88-67 (.568) | (36-17) Clemson, NC St, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh | (30-21) Florida St, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia | (16-22) (F) Lafayette, Northwestern, Notre Dame | (6-7) (G) UCONN |
| North Carolina (5) | 8.188/32 | 9-5/46 | 85-64 (.570) | (24-24) Syracuse, Miami FL, Virginia, Duke | (33-19) Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC St | (20-16) (G) App St, Minnesota, (F) Campbell | (8-5) (N) South Carolina |
| Pittsburgh (6) | 8.126/38 | 9-4/62 | 83-68 (.550) | (30-22) North Carolina, Louisville, Florida St, Boston College | (27-23) Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, (N) Syracuse, Duke | (12-12) (F) Wofford, Cincinnati | (14-11) West Virginia, Notre Dame |
| Virginia (7) | 8.109/40 | 3-7/52 | 89-62 (.589) | (26-24) NC St, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech | (23-26) Boston College, North Carolina, Miami FL, Louisville | (19-5) (G) James Madison, (F) William & Mary | (19-7) (N) Tennessee, Maryland |
| Florida St (8) | 8.086/41 | 10-3/59 | 79-73 (.520) | (24-25) Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Duke, Miami Fl | (31-21) Boston College, Clemson, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh | (8-16) (G) Southern Miss, (F) N Alabama | (16-11) (N) LSU, Florida |
| Virginia Tech (9) | 8.002/45 | 3-8/63 | 80-71 (.526) | (32-20) Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Syracuse, NC St | (24-24) Florida St, Louisville, Boston College, Virginia | (11-15) (G) Old Dominion, Purdue | (13-12) Rutgers, (G) Marshall |
| Syracuse (10) | 7.914/47 | 7-6/25 | 80-72 (.526) | (22-17) Clemson, Boston College, Wake Forest | (36-27) North Carolina, Florida St, Virginia Tech, (N) Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech | (14-21) (F) Colgate, (G) W Michigan, (G) Army | (8-6) Purdue |
| NC St (11) | 7.678/55 | 8-5/36 | 81-69 (.540) | (33-20) Louisville, Clemson, Miami FL, North Carolina | (23-24) Virginia, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech | (19-18) Notre Dame, (F) VMI, (G) Marshall | (6-7) (G) UCONN |
| Miami FL (12) | 7.215/76 | 5-7/51 | 73-76 (.490) | (27-22) Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, Louisville | (30-22) North Carolina, NC St, Florida St, Boston College | (13-23) (G) Miami OH, Texas A&M, (F) Bethune Cookman | (3-9) (G) Temple |
| Boston College (13) | 6.980/87 | 3-9/47 | 77-71 (.520) | (21-25) Florida St, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami FL | (29-23) Louisville, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh | (21-17) (G) N Illinois, (F) Holy Cross, (G) UCONN | (6-6) (G) Army |
| Louisville (14) | 6.482/105 | 8-5/36 | 67-78 (.462) | (18-28) Boston College, Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia | (27-23) (N) Georgia Tech, NC St, Pittsburgh, Miami FL | (18-19) (F) Murray St, Notre Dame, Kentucky | (4-8) (N) Indiana |
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That’s it for this post. If you have issues, complaints, improvements, or questions, please take the time to comment so that we can make the blog better. If you like what you’re seeing, please share with others so that we can increase readership. Thank you, either way, for taking the time to read through these thoughts, G.
