Greetings oh great and wonderful college football fans. We made it to August! In just 23 days our early games (look for the matchup info coming later on) kick off and the greatest time of the year will begin. As a reminder, the GCR does not have preseason rankings, which require bias, so every team is currently tied for the #1 spot. What I am able to do is use last year’s win totals to speculate how difficult each team (and by rolling up, conference) schedule is. During the season SOS is a little more complicated primarily because it factors in opponent’s opponent’s schedule. In the preseason, it’s more straight up wins by opponents adjusted for location (by rule road games are harder than neutral are harder than home games) and league (by rule a 6-win Power 5 [and Notre Dame] team is more difficult than a 6-win Group of 5 team is more difficult than a 6-win FCS team is more difficult than a non-Division I 6-win team). Using this simplified algorithm, I can rank the teams from 1-261 and the conferences from 1-26 (“A” to “Z”) for a little analysis fun prior to the games. Keep in mind an “easy” preseason SOS may or may not turn out that way once the pigskin starts to fly. So far, we’ve looked at all the FCS and Group of 5 as well as the barely in the Power 5 (from a PS SOS viewpoint) Pac-12 (soon to be 10 or 0 or 16 – more to come on that as the season moves forward). This week we will talk about the 4th or “D” place conference, the ACC.
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Last year, the Atlantic Coast Conference had a new champion in Pittsburgh (11-3), a massive and wonderful Cinderella in Wake Forest (11-3), and perennial Playoff contender Clemson missing the ACC championship game for the first time since 2014 (they won ’14-’19 before losing to Notre Dame in the Covid year), but still winning 10 against just 3 losses. NC St was 9-3 and Miami FL was 7-5 and no one else in the 14-team division finished with a winning record. Both Boston College and Virginia were 6-6, but had their bowls cancelled (as was NC St along with Miami FL). Overall, the conference was 94-82 for a .534 winning pct (very close to the overall Power 5 and Group of 5 rate). During the season, they were 12-1 against the FCS with the lone loss owned by Florida St (5-7) 20-17 to Jacksonville St. The ACC was fairly strong against the Group of 5 going 16-4 during the regular season (Georgia Tech lost to N Illinois 22-21, Duke lost to Charlotte 31-28, Virginia lost to a very good BYU 66-49 [no that isn’t a basketball score], and ACC Champion Pittsburgh lost to W Michigan 44-41). But against peer Power 5 opponents, the conference was just 6-15 for a .286 winning percentage. It goes without saying that P5 vs P5 average is .500. It doesn’t help that they went 0-5 versus Notre Dame (Georgia Tech, UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech, Virginia). During the regular season, the ACC was 22-19 (.536) against the FBS and 34-20 (.630) vs non-conference teams. Keep in mind they were a very good 28-5 (.848) against non-P5 opponents. Then came the bowl season. 4 qualifying teams didn’t get to play which left just 6 games. First the winners: Clemson dropped Iowa St 20-13 and Wake Forest capped their dream season with a 28-10 pounding of Rutgers. Power 5 losses in bowl games came to Virginia Tech 54-10 to Maryland, UNC 38-21 to South Carolina, Pittsburgh 31-21 to Michigan St. That 2-3 record means the final P5 record was 8-18. The only G5 bowl opponent (Air Force) got the best of Louisville 31-28. 2-4 in bowls with 4 in absentia is not the launching pad they need.
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Once again, the pseudo-Notre-Dame being part of the conference thing is happening with games against UNC (again!), Syracuse, Boston College, and Clemson. There is a huge discrepancy between the most challenged team (Georgia Tech with the 5th most difficult PS SOS) and the least (Pittsburgh 112th and next to last in the Power 5). In fact, Tech’s opponent’s average more than 3 adjusted wins per game (9.316 vs 6.243) or 49% greater. Pitt only plays 1 ACC opponent with a winning record last year at 7-5 Miami FL. To that they add FCS Rhode Island (7-4), at G5 W Michigan (8-5) who beat them last year, granted, and 7-6 Tennessee at home. Georgia Tech plays Miami FL and Clemson at home, Pittsburgh on the road, 10-3 Mississippi in a non-conference home game, and a road test at G5 UCF (9-4) all before the season ending match up at last year’s national champion Georgia (14-1). 4 teams overall play top 16 schedules (Tech, Louisville, UNC, and Syracuse) but 5 are in the bottom 10 for Power 5 schools (Pitt, Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke, and Miami FL). The 14 teams average a 7.690 PS SOS vs a P5 average of 8.029 and an FBS average of 7.348. In the table below (F) means FCS, (G) means Group of 5, and (N) means Neutral Site. Here are all 14:
| Team | 21 W-L/ SOS Rank | 22 PS SOS/ Rank | Home Conference | Away Conference | NC Home | NC Away | Summary |
| Georgia Tech (C) | 3-9/9 | 9.316/5 | Clemson, Virginia, Duke, Miami FL (26-23) | Pittsburgh, FSU, Virginia Tech, UNC (28-24) | (F) W Carolina (4-7), Mississippi (10-3) | (G) UCF (9-4), Georgia (14-1) | 91-62 (.594) |
| Louisville (A) | 6-7 /17 | 9.056/9 | FSU, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, NC St (36-16) | Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia, Clemson (27-22) | (G) South Florida (2-10), (G) James Madison (12-2) | (G) UCF (9-4), Kentucky (10-3) | 96-57 (.627) |
| UNC (C) | 6-7 /36 | 8.868/12 | Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, NC St (29-22) | Miami FL, Virginia, Duke, Wake Forest (27-23) | (F) Florida A&M (9-3), Notre Dame (11-2) | (G) App St (10-4), (G) Georgia St (8-5) | 94-59 (.614) |
| Syracuse (A) | 5-7 /47 | 8.690/16 | Louisville, Virginia, NC St, Florida St (26-23) | Clemson, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Boston College (38-15) | Purdue (9-4), (F) Wagner (0-11), Notre Dame (11-2) | (G) UCONN (1-11) | 85-66 (.562) |
| Florida St (A) | 5-7 /40 | 8.051/37 | Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech (30-21) | Louisville, NC St, Miami FL, Syracuse (22-22) | (F) Duquesne (7-3), (G) Louisiana (13-1), Florida 6-7 | (N) LSU (6-7) | 84-61 (.579) |
| Boston College (A) | 6-6 /72 | 7.938/41 | Louisville, Clemson, Duke, Syracuse (24-26) | Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, FSU, NC St (31-20) | Rutgers (5-8), (F) Maine (6-5) | (G) UCONN (1-11), Notre Dame (11-2) | 78-72 (.520) |
| Clemson (A) | 10-3 /24 | 7.711/50 | NC St, Syracuse, Louisville, Miami FL (27-22) | Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College, FSU (25-25) | (F) Furman (6-5), (G) LA Tech (3-9), South Carolina (7-6) | Notre Dame (11-2) | 79-69 (.533) |
| Virginia Tech (C) | 6-7 /62 | 7.473/62 | Boston College, Miami FL, Georgia Tech, Virginia (21-27) | UNC, Pittsburgh, NC St, Duke (28-22) | (F) Wofford (1-10), West Virginia (6-7) | (G) Old Dominion (6-7), (G) Liberty (8-5) | 70-84 (.455) |
| NC St (A) | 9-3 /61 | 7.216/68 | FSU, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College (28-23) | Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, Duke (27-24) | (F) Charleston Southern (4-6), Texas Tech (7-6), (G) UCONN (1-11) | (G) E Carolina (7-5) | 74-75 (.497) |
| Miami FL (C) | 7-5 /26 | 6.972/78 | UNC, Duke, FSU, Pittsburgh (25-26) | Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Clemson (25-25) | (F) Bethune Cookman (2-9), (G) Southern Miss (3-9), (G) Middle Tennessee (7-6) | Texas A&M (8-4) | 70-79 (.470) |
| Duke (C) | 3-9 /65 | 6.767/85 | Virginia, UNC, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest (29-23) | Georgia Tech, Miami FL, Boston College, Pittsburgh (27-23) | (G) Temple (3-9), (F) NC A&T (5-6) | Northwestern (3-9), Kansas (2-10) | 69-80 (.463) |
| Wake Forest (A) | 11-3 /50 | 6.744/86 | Clemson, Boston College, UNC, Syracuse (27-23) | FSU, Louisville, NC St, Duke (23-26) | (F) VMI (6-5), (G) Liberty (8-5), (G) Army (9-4) | Vanderbilt (2-10) | 75-73 (.507) |
| Virginia (C) | 6-6 /33 | 6.619/92 | Louisville, UNC, Miami FL, Pittsburgh (29-23) | Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech (17-32) | (F) Richmond (6-5), (G) Old Dominion (6-7), (G) Coastal Carolina (11-2) | Illinois (5-7) | 75-76 (.497) |
| Pittsburgh (C) | 11-3 /69 | 6.243/112 | Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Duke (17-32) | Louisville, Virginia, UNC, Miami FL (25-25) | West Virginia (6-7), Tennessee (7-6), (F) Rhode Island (7-4) | (G) W Michigan (8-5) | 70-79 (.470) |
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That’s it for this episode. Tune in next time for the conference with the 3rd most difficult schedule for ’22. Thank you for reading and if you have improvements or questions, please comment. I’m always trying to get better. If you like what you read, please share it with others. I’m always trying to grow the reach. G
