Hello oh great and wonderful college football fans. This year there are 39 bowls (40 if you count the championship game) so 78 of the 130 FBS teams (fully 60%) will have an opportunity. The rules are pretty straightforward. FCS schools do not qualify for a bowl (there is one between the MEAC and SWAC conferences but they don’t participate in the FCS playoffs, so 41 if you count that one). Each FBS team plays 12 regular season games, unless they play a game at Hawaii in which case they CAN play 13, but are not required to. Army is doing that this year. If a team wins at least 6 games (caveat to that in a second). Generally if a 6-6 team makes the conference championship game and loses, they still qualify. The caveat: an FCS win counts, but only one – if a team plays 2 in a season and wins both, they must have 7 total wins to qualify. If there aren’t enough teams, the occasional 5-7 team is chosen. Most conferences are allocated x number of specific bowls and are obligated to fill them if they can. If not, the extras from other conferences (or independents) fill in. Rarely will a Power 5 6-6 team not get a bid, although it is not that uncommon for 6-6 Group of 5 to be left out.
So far 31 teams have qualified for a bowl and only 6 are eliminated. Here are the two lists, first who’s in (alphabetical)
| Team | Conference |
| Air Force (33) | MWC |
| Alabama (4) | SEC |
| App State (18) | Sun |
| Auburn (8) | SEC |
| Baylor (5) | B12 |
| Boise State (27) | MWC |
| Cincinnati (9) | AAC |
| Clemson (7) | ACC |
| Florida (6) | SEC |
| Ga State (34) | Sun |
| Georgia (22) | SEC |
| Indiana (28) | Big 10 |
| Iowa (15) | Big 10 |
| Louisiana Tech (46) | C-USA |
| LSU (2) | SEC |
| Memphis (30) | AAC |
| Michigan (16) | Big 10 |
| Minnesota (10) | Big 10 |
| Navy (25) | AAC |
| Ohio State (1) | Big 10 |
| Oklahoma (17) | B12 |
| Oregon (20) | Pac-12 |
| Penn State (3) | Big 10 |
| San Diego St (50) | MWC |
| SMU (23) | AAC |
| UAB (56) | C-USA |
| UCF (35) | AAC |
| Utah (19) | Pac-12 |
| Wake Forest (13) | ACC |
| Wisconsin (11) | Big 10 |
| Wyoming (55) | MWC |
And who is already planning December holiday parties that have nothing to do with football.
| Team | Conference |
| Akron (255) | MAC |
| Massachusetts (228) | Ind |
| New Mexico St (217) | Ind |
| Old Dominion (183) | C-USA |
| Rice (215) | C-USA |
| S Alabama (205) | Sun |
Note: Akron is the next to last team in FBS and FCS combined. they are 0-8 and are outscored at a pace of 35.8 to 10.8. The Zips ain’t zipping this year.
There are 10 schools with 6 losses – one more and they join the short list. I looked at each of their schedules and chose the game they are most likely to lose – it may not be this week, but lose they will, each and every one of them in November and postseason practice is done. That actually deserves an explanation. When a school gets a bowl game, they are allowed extra practices in order to prepare. Makes sense, right? The difference between a 5-7 team and a bowl-bound 6-6 team is a few weeks of extra drills that help teams get ready for the next season as well – more reps, etc. Back to the story. Here are the 10 that are one loss away:
Notice only Tulsa has a better than 35% chance to win each individual game. Half of the teams face top 11 teams.
But there are also a group of 21 teams that have 5 losses – just two away with either 4 or 5 games remaining. The pressure is on for those extra weeks of practice. No slip ups or losing to teams you should beat. Surely a fairly large percentage of the 21 will make it. Maybe, but that’s not what the current GCR prediction model shows (keep in mind, these percentages, and maybe even the projected winner, change after each game input in the model). For these, I picked the 2 most challenges games.
Of note, Charlotte and Mississippi State are the only teams that are not underdogs for at least 2 games remaining. If this holds, that’s 35 of the 52 non-bowling teams identified. 31 teams have made it – the GCR picked 2 of these nearly eliminated teams so that’s 33 of the 78 needed. If I’ve done my math right, there are 62 teams not listed in this blog and 45 spots (assuming assuming assuming). November is truly separation month – who’s in for real? Tune in to find out.
I’ll publish the prediction numbers normally in this post on Monday or Tuesday – I have them, just wanted to keep this one focused on this issue (a reader request).
Hope you enjoyed this. Comment/question – and share with others,
thanks, G
