G’s Explanation or So Many Games, So Few Zeros

Florida beat Auburn and Michigan took out Iowa. That’s 2 major teams that lost a zero – in their cases out of the loss column. Thanks for a pic from the SEC game goes to Florida season ticket holder Jason Loccisano. I’m betting his ears are still ringing!!

As I was watching the two games mentioned it made me think about how many 0 loss or 0 win teams we had and what the chances of each remaining so. Of the 21 teams without a loss (both FBS and FCS), 12 games remain between 2 of them. In fact only 4 of them (App St, Boise St, North Dakota St, and Villanova) DON’T face a team that is currently undefeated. By necessity, there will be just a few, if any, left when the season is over. By the same token, there are 13 teams that have goose eggs in the win column. All but 2 of these teams are FCS schools (Akron and New Mexico State), and there are only 3 games (all involving the winless Patriot League teams: Bucknell, Colgate, and Lafayette) in which someone has to lose that zero.

Not all schedules are created equal so this week’s analysis is all about the zeros and how likely they are to change. Let’s start with the winless teams. In the table below, there are a couple of terms I used for space requirements. GP is Games Played (no point in putting in the zero, right?). SOS/fSOS is the team’s current Strength of Schedule Rank (out of the 256 teams – not the actual SOS score which is used to rack and stack the teams) followed by the future SOS Rank. If the 2nd number is lower than the first number it means that team’s schedule is harder in the remaining games than in the ones already played. B25/50 is a count of how many opponents are ranked (currently, not when the game was played) in the bottom 25 – this number also counts games against non-division I opponents. After the slash is the count vs the bottom 50. The fB25/50 column is a count of where future opponents are in the current ranking. The Worst Loss is the team with at the bottom most position in the GCR or a non-division I team. The last column is games remaining against not-so-good teams – so, I’m saying there’s a chance – or not. An Asterisk next to a team name indicates a non-division I school.

The bad news for Valparaiso is their schedule gets harder although they do have 3 easier (all relative) games coming up. They may be hard to knock out of that bottom spot especially since they went 0-2 against smaller schools. The 2 Group of 5 teams, Akron and NM State, both face easier schedules and could pull some wins out, although that loss to Massachusetts doesn’t bode well for the Zips. NW State may get a pass for the slow start with a schedule harder ranked harder than most of the undefeated teams. If I had to pick the teams least likely to shed the zero, based on this data, I would say, Valparaiso, the directional Illinois’s, Presbyterian, and Long Island.

For the perfect teams, I made a similar chart with a few changes. In this one I look at opponents in the top 25 or 50, the Best Win and future difficult opponents.

I have never done this type of chart before, but it became pretty clear why the GCR put these teams in this order. There are certainly other factors that go into the rating, which is why the SOS is not perfectly in order, but it tells me the SOS does do its job in the formula. The second thing that jumped out is 20 of the 21 teams play a harder schedule from here on out than they’ve already played (App State is the exception). There are only 6 wins against the top 25 and just 19 against the top 50. On the one hand that’s not too as 14 of the top 25 and 16 of the top 50 are perfect. But compare those numbers to the future – there are a ton of really good games coming up.

The Ivy League teams have only played 3 games so I’m not too excited about them yet. Dartmouth with the easiest schedule of the 3 going forward has the best chance – plus they get both current teams at home. If Villanova beats James Madison they have a shot at perfection. North Dakota plays their toughest 2 opponents in back to back road games. If they make it through those, they have a good shot too. 10 schools (LSU – 6, Penn State – 8, Minnesota – 19, Ohio State – 20, Wisconsin – 22, Wake Forest – 27, Florida – 30, Oklahoma – 31, Baylor – 33, and SMU – 36) have top 40 schedules and I’m going to say they will have a tough road – let’s give them at least one loss. What? Ohio State is #1!!! Yes, I know and they’ve played the most difficult schedule of the zero teams, but it just gets tougher. Could they do it? Of course, and I wouldn’t be that surprised, but they can’t have a let down with 3 top 15 teams on the schedule. The same logic holds true for all of these. That leaves Alabama who has 2 top 10 games left, but the rest should not be taxing, and Clemson (who only face Wake Forest at home in the GCR top 50) from the top 10. Alabama gets LSU at home and Auburn on the road so zero will be tough. Georgia, who has a weaker schedule still faces Auburn and Florida away from home. I already predicted losses to both. The Memphis/SMU game is interesting only in who should represent the Group of 5 in the New Year’s Six bowls – although it will be an exciting game. Boise State may have the best chance of going undefeated in the entire country. Since I picked this topic, it is incumbent on me to make my most likely to keep the zero picks. Here goes. I think Ohio State runs the table – in past years, they always had “the game” – be it Purdue or some other “what just happened?” game. I don’t think that happens here. Add Oklahoma to that mix. I don’t see them getting tripped up. Clemson should keep the zero as long as they don’t play worse than they did at North Carolina. Although, I’d love to see Wake Forest still perfect when they play November 16 (I’ve always been a fan of the perpetual underdog). In the SEC, I think Florida has the best chance if they beat LSU in Death Valley next week. If not, I think LSU has the best chance. That’s a hedge, but it’s the best I can do. I think Georgia loses to Florida and I think Alabama loses to LSU or Auburn. That puts Ohio State, LSU/Florida winner, Clemson, and Oklahoma in the playoff in some order.

That’s the statement and I’m sticking with it until next week’s games are played. Thanks again for your readership, your comments, your questions, your challenges, your support, your willingness to share this blog with others, and your love of college football.

Until next week, r