G’s Expectation or Week 3 Preview

Hello oh great and loyal fans. Very few things will get a good debate (or argument, or spilled beer) going faster than someone talking trash about someone else’s favorite football team. Now, that said, this slate is somewhat better than last week’s, but there are still 20 FBS/FCS games and 8 FCS/Lower Level games. Next week there are just 12 total (8 and 4), so we are almost into “normal” football. Whew. On top of that there are some pretty good Power 5 (P5) teams playing Group of 5’s (Gof5) this week as well. Here are some of them:

On Friday, Washington State who has played New Mexico State (Gof5) winning by 49 and N. Colorado (FCS) winning by 42 will play another Gof5 team, Houston who has lost to Oklahoma by 18 and beat Prairie View (FCS) by 20. The Cougars are ranked in national polls.

On Saturday, Georgia (currently one of 3 SEC teams in the top 4 of the AP poll) will play Arkansas State of the Sun Belt. The Bulldogs beat Vanderbilt in a conference game by 24 to open the season and then played FCS Murray State (63-17). The Red Wolves lost to SMU by 7 and beat UNLV 43-17.

Maryland beat Howard (FCS) 79-0 which is the highest scoring game this year and then beat Syracuse from the ACC 63-20. They could be legitimate but we won’t know a whole lot more about them after this week as the play Temple from the American conference who won their sole game 56-12 over Bucknell (FCS)

Notre Dame, after an off week to prepare, is taking on New Mexico of the giant killing Mountain West (although usually the Lobos don’t help with that very much). They beat Sam Houston State (FCS) by a score of 39-31 in their lone game while the Fighting Irish thumped Louisville by 18.

Southern Cal after a big rivalry win over Stanford by 25 following a close 8 point win over Fresno State (Gof5) plays an independent Gof5, BYU who just beat 0-2 Tennessee (who has 2 losses to Gof5 schools already) in OT but lost to Utah by 18.

The last one of these I’m going to bring up is Auburn, who beat Oregon (P5) by 6 to start the season and Tulane (Gof5) by 18 last week, will face Kent State who lost to Arizona State by 23 before besting Kennesaw State (FCS) in OT.

But there are some good games that could be worth watching even if you aren’t a fan of that school (the ones above might be good if there’s enough beer to go around). I’ve picked 6 that are 12+ straight hours and some Picture in Picture opportunities from almost every region (sorry state of Texas).

At noon (all times Eastern) we have two 2-0 teams that are facing tough battles in conference the rest of the year. Kansas State will visit Starkville to take on Mississippi State. The Wildcats have outscored their obviously outclassed opponents 101-14 and will need a test before their Big 12 schedule starts next week. Mississippi State has had closer games (ULL on the road by 10 and Southern Mississippi by 13. The line on this game is the Bulldogs by 7.5 but that seems a bit high – look for a closer game that is decided in the 4th quarter.

If I’m wrong on that one, switch over to Air Force and Colorado which kicks off at 1:00. While this is an Group of 5/Power 5 match up, it is intriguing. I think these teams make an intriguing matchup and the line shows it – Colorado by 4. Air Force has only played one game and that against Colgate winning by 41. The Buffaloes are 2-0 including last week’s come from behind, overtime masterpiece versus Nebraska (a game I picked last week to highlight). As a reminder the Mountain West is 6-5 against Power 5 schools so far this year and this one feels dangerous. Air Force is run heavy (despite being, you know, Air Force with a Falcon as a mascot) and Colorado gave up 179 rushing yards to the Cornhuskers. This will be a fun game.

Stanford is a more than a touchdown underdog! For the last decade or so, that hasn’t been heard much. Now, add to that, against a Group of 5 foe and we have intrigue. Granted the foe is Central Florida (who likes to self proclaim national championships and stuff) who is, in recent years, a really good team. And the game is in Orlando. And the Cardinal just lost to Southern Cal – badly. The Pac 12 needs Stanford to win this game. Period. With few exceptions, their out of conference schedule is not great. Colorado beat Nebraska, yes, and Stanford beat Northwestern, yes. But Arizona lost to Hawaii, UCLA lost to Cincinnati and San Diego State, Oregon State lost to Hawaii (2-0 in the Pac 12) and Oklahoma State, and Oregon lost to Auburn. This game with the Knights, despite Stanford pretty much already out of the playoff picture, has playoff implications for whoever does win the Pac 12. Lots of damage and baggage. All of that said, if I were a betting man, I think I’d take UCF and the 8.5 points. But like always, please do not take betting advice from me – unless you win, then I’d like a share 🙂 This game is at 3:30 and probably the most important afternoon game.

Likewise a 4:00 game between Arizona State and Michigan State caught my eye. Last year, the Sun Devils beat the Spartans 16-13 at home, but this year the game is at East Lansing. Both teams are 2-0 and haven’t been challenged yet. This is one of those non-conference games that will have conference play impact (like Colorado/Nebraska last week). The line is Michigan State by 14, which based on last year’s game, may be a bit generous.

Florida and Kentucky has rarely been a game to be circled, but Kentucky stopped a decades long losing streak last year – both teams had double figure wins a year ago, are 2-0 this year and a lot is on the line in this, their first conference game of the season. Florida looked lackluster in a sloppy win over 0-2 Miami and took it out on an FCS team (UT-Martin) while Kentucky barely beat Toledo (6 points) and took out E. Michigan (both from the MAC) by 19. The game is at Kroger Field. The Wildcats lost some good talent, but the 9 point underdog status for this home game seems iffy. I think it will be close – Florida may cover, but I just don’t think it will be by much. Watch it at 7:00.

For all of you night owls (or folks on the western half of the country, the most interesting Power 5/FCS game is kicking off at 10:45. What on paper might look like a compete runaway (and may be), there are some things to think about in the Oregon vs Montana (of the Big Sky) game. This is the last game of the week and the Ducks are favored by 37.5, but which Oregon shows up? Is it the 21 points vs Auburn Ducks or the 77 versus Nevada Ducks. Keep in mind, 37.5 points is a lot and Montana scored 92 in their first two wins (against 34). Which Oregon defense is going to come to play? Is it the 27 against the Tigers or the 6 against the Wolf Pack. Some of these games I feel good about the line being too high or too low, but this one…I have no idea. It feels like a 50 point blowout, but it feels like a wear ’em out in the 4th quarter game too. Should be fun to find out.

That’s it for this week. Tune in Sunday for a) an analysis of the week that was and b) a possible early posting of the initial GCR ranking (and an explanation of why I can post early – nothing like geekiness on a Sunday afternoon).

Later, r