I made a sort-of, kinda promise to someone this week that I would start stating who should be in the Playoffs this week, so I will. Here are the only caveats: expect changes each week and I will give the GCR (which really is agnostic to conference politics and such) as well as a, if the season ended today, reality check. This week’s is going to be tough.
Based on what I expect the AP to show there would be, in some order, Clemson (8), Alabama (3), Georgia (20), and (pick either Oklahoma (4), Auburn (7), LSU (5), or the like). Currently, there are 14 perfect Power 5 teams and only 4 can be amongst the chosen. With Vanderbilt’s (84) win over Northern Illinois (135) all P5 teams are on the board. The Group of 5 have 4 undefeated teams and 3 winless remaining. So, currently the fight to be the “winner of the Group of 5” as I was drunkedly (I may have just coined that word) texted last night is between Memphis (18), SMU (24), Boise State (26), and App State (27). The FCS has 6 without a loss and 14 still looking for that post-game celebration (including my sad Alma Mater, Presbyterian (239). Hey, we scored 21 and only lost by 20 to the powerhouse of Northern Alabama (206) – we may have beat the spread – don’t know – not worth looking up).
So here are the GCR top 4 (all 256 are below): Ohio State (1), Penn State (2), Alabama (3), Oklahoma (4). By the book, those are the best 4 teams right now. But Ohio State and Penn State are in the same division and one will probably knock the other out. Next in line is LSU (5). Same issue with Bama. Next we have Iowa (6) – they are in the Big 10, but they don’t play Ohio State (they do play Penn State though). If they and the Buckeyes are both undefeated going into the championship game…. Would be fun to see what happens. Next is Auburn (7) who not only have Bama and LSU still to go, they have the number 3 most difficult remaining schedule (behind Michigan (17) and Michigan State (43). Then we finally get another conference involved with Clemson (8) who barely survived against North Carolina (65). So the reality is, we don’t know, but if forced I would say the highest likelihood of being in the playoffs is, in no particular order), 1) the winner of Penn State/Ohio State, 2) the winner of Alabama/Auburn/LSU round robin, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Clemson. Lots of football to play (it IS still just September). Tune in later tonight for more analysis on the weekend that was.
Here is the GCR for Week 5
Who wins the SEC and makes it into the playoff? Bama, LSU, Auburn, UGA? Any chance two SEC teams find their way in?
Tyler, thanks for the question. Sorry for the delay, but there was some research that had to go into this one. You didn’t mention Florida, who is also undefeated, but I added them to the analysis. I looked at the remaining SEC games for each and ranked them from easiest to hardest. The easiest is Georgia (20) with games against Tennessee (125), Kentucky (113), South Carolina (108), Missouri (56), Texas A&M (33), Florida (11), Auburn (7). Against the big 5, the will lose to Florida (43.3% chance to win), and Auburn (39.9%). 2 losses and they are not in the SEC championship much less the playoffs. By the way, my wife is a UGA grad and I’m kind of hoping she doesn’t read this. The next easiest is Alabama (3) with Arkansas (142), Tennessee, Mississippi State (35), Texas A&M (33), Auburn (7), and LSU (5). They should handle LSU at home (59.1%), but that road game at Auburn is a loss (48.5%). Let’s come back to Bama. Next is Florida with games against South Carolina, Vanderbilt (84), Missouri, Georgia, Auburn, and LSU. They will beat Auburn (61.4%) and Georgia (56.7%), but lose to LSU (40.8%). The good news for Gator fans is they will win the East. LSU has 7 league games left: Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. We’ve already established the will lose to Alabama (41.9%) and beat Florida (59.2%). They will also enjoy beating Auburn at home (62.8%). That leaves Auburn with a killer schedule. The do get to play Arkansas and Mississippi, but face all 4 SEC undefeated teams (other than themselves). The beat Georgia (61.1%) and Alabama (51.1%), but lose to Florida (38.6%) and LSU (37.2%). That leaves Alabama as the winner of the west. The Tide barely beat Florida (52.8%) and make the playoffs. LSU could have a shot at the second spot being the only remaining 1 loss team assuming they don’t trip up and get help from other conferences. The 10/19 game at Mississippi State sandwiched between Florida and Auburn feels like a trap game. That’s the analysis today. The numbers change every week so it may be worth a look as the inevitable losses begin. Hope this helps, r