Once again, this is a combined post of both “normal” Sunday analyses. Florida A&M beat North Carolina A&T 31-28 in OT this afternoon to complete Week 8 action. In this post we are going to see the full GCR (spoiler alert, Alabama is NOT in the top 4 – I know all of my Auburn fans are planning to buy me a beer now – hint, hint. blogging is a lonely and thirsty business, you know). It’s early enough for things to change, obviously, but it is a little late to have 10 perfect teams – we will examine all of them and predict their regular season record. Then we are going to look at how the GCR did in the weekly prediction, especially for those upsets we called (oh, yeah, two changes to that – I’ll explain when I get there). And finally, we will look at why this was the second week in a row with major upsets (after being pretty tame until last week).
Jumping right in with the GCR. The top 4 do not include Clemson, Alabama, or Oklahoma (I guess I could have led with that, huh?). But, wait, G, I mean, come on – these guys decimate almost everyone they play. Well Alabama (5) has the 115th best SOS, their best win is against Duke (32) and their opponents are a combined 20-30 (20-23 without playing the Tide). Oklahoma (6) has the 139th strongest SOS, they did beat one top 25 team in Texas (18), but their opponents are 21-28 (21-21 independent of the Sooners). Clemson (9) is 105th in SOS, beat Texas A&M (33), and had opponents go 21-28 (21-21). In contrast, both LSU (2) and Penn State (4) are 3-0 against the top tier talent. Ohio State (1) and Florida (3) round out the top 4, but OSU and PSU play so one of them will get knocked out. That would put Alabama in, but they play LSU, so that means Oklahoma right now. It’s still too confusing to call. Here’s the full GCR and we will pick this conversation up just after.
Before we pick this back up – I post this in quarters because of the picture size, but a look into each of the quarters (1-64, 65-128, 129-192, 193-256) might be fun. That may be a topic for Tuesday. Anyway, back to the top 4 and the playoff picture. In previous years, it seemed a bit smoother – more obvious. For those who weren’t part of the email pre-blog reporting, I don’t know if that was because I didn’t have FCS games in the mix (seems unlikely, but that is different), or SOS, or what? If I had to say who should be in the playoff it would be: winner of Ohio State/Minnesota Big 10 championship, winner of Alabama/LSU, winner of Baylor/Oklahoma (unless they split the regular season and the championship game), either Clemson or Florida assuming they win out. Oregon if it wins out takes the Big 12 spot. That is really confusing and comes with a lot of ifs, but there are some really important games coming up. And, how did you pick Minnesota to win the Big 10 West? Really? Right now, there are 10 undefeated teams – granted App State (17) and SMU (21) are more competing for the Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six Bowls that the playoffs, but what does each team face, and using today’s data (it will change after each game played), who remains perfect? I purposefully did not simulate the championship games because, you know, I have other blogs to write. But here’s what happened when I ran it.
For the power 5 schools, compare Oklahoma’s schedule to Clemson’s or Alabama’s (since I picked on all 3 of these earlier). Penn State has 4 of the next 5 games against Top 50 caliber talent. Clemson has 1. Taking the schedules into account, the last column shows Ohio State (1), Alabama (5), Baylor (8), Clemson (9), and Minnesota (10) will remain unbeaten. If they all take care of business in the conference championship games, these are your 4 (winner of Ohio State/Minnesota). App State (17) should earn the best Group of 5 bowl after it sweeps it’s easiest of the perfect’s schedule. Obviously there is a lot of football to play and it will be Nasty November soon where anything can happen.
On Wednesday, I posted the 16 teams that the GCR picked to win when Vegas had odds on the opponent. In the first paragraph, I said there were changes – no I didn’t cheat, JW. I had Ball State (70) to win and the games opened Eastern Michigan (102) -1.5, but a lot of bettor’s clearly read the GCR and the line switched to Ball State -3.0. They did win, but I took them out of the upset prediction because of the point spread change. I added in another one. The GCR had Wake Forest (22) over Florida State (46). The line opened WF -2.5 and closed FSU -2.5. The Demon Deacons won a close won so I counted that one bringing the total back to 16. Here’s the breakdown of how the GCR did:
Vegas got it right and beat the spread (6 games): Pitt (20)/Syracuse (71), Iowa St (30)/Texas Tech (45), Oregon (11)/Washington (50), Texas A&M (33)/Mississippi (111), Southern Cal (38)/Arizona (37), Air Force (44)/Hawaii (67).
The GCR picked the outright winner against the advisement of Vegas (8 games): Kansas St (28)/TCU (74), Miami-Ohio (75)/N. Illinois (177), Virginia Tech (51)/UNC (58), Baylor (8)/Oklahoma St (60), UTSA (147)/Rice (199), Ga State (84)/Army (107), E. Michigan (102)/W. Michigan (136), Wake Forest (22)/FSU (46).
There were 2 games the GCR got wrong, but the pick beat the spread: Kent St (85)/Ohio (123), and Indiana (36)/Maryland (89). That means 8-8 straight up and 10-6 against the spread this week. The two week total is now 12-12 and 14-10.
Those of course are picked upsets. The GCR was up 3 this week overall (correct picks vs expected picks) taking me to +7 for the year. This is a straight up measure, not taking into consideration the Vegas line – there were some “Vegas Wins” as well, but I’m not tracking them. The two week running record is now 159-66 (.707).
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 7-10 (.412) | 12-7 (.632) | 19-17 (.528) | 19.80 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 16-1 (.941) | 7-7 (.500) | 23-8 (.742) | 20.15 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 11-4 (.733) | 9-2 (.818) | 20-6 (.769) | 19.50 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 8-1 (.889) | 4-0 (1.000) | 12-1 (.923) | 11.05 |
| 90.0%+ | 3-1 (.750) | 6-0 (1.000) | 9-1 (.900) | 9.50 |
| Total | 45-17 (.726) | 38-16 (.704) | 83-33 (.716) | 80.00 |
And now last but not least – the upsets and none have been bigger this season that Georgia Tech (141) over Miami (31). The GCR had them at just 3.4% chance of winning – the first 90% underdog to lose this year. Congratulations on the Yellow Jackets earning this win. It has been a miserable season for the Ramblin’ Wrecked team, but they now have something to smile about! Illinois (76) got a late score to knock down the crazy defense of Wisconsin (14) – got to have an honorable mention here. The bronze medal goes to Oregon State (106) taking out California (40).
Here are all of the FBS teams that claimed upsets this weekend: UCLA, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Kansas State, Oregon State, Miami (OH), Virginia Tech (in 6 OT), Baylor, Vanderbilt, UTSA, Eastern Michigan, Wake Forest, and BYU. Congratulations not only for the big wins, but for keeping college football exciting. Any given Saturday (or whatever day of the week games get played).
That’s it until next time. Comment/challenge/question/subscribe, but above all else, share the GCR blog with any friend who even might like college football. We need your help to grow the page. Thanks and have a great rest of your weekend,
G
Awesome stuff, Robert. This blog is so amazingly detailed …::in a good way!!!
Shawn
Thanks, Shawn. I hope the passion comes through. I love this stuff!!!
Robert – good read…Interesting top 4. FL at #3 with a loss (although a quality one) seems iffy, but I believe I am starting to wrap my head around your rankings logic after reading for a few weeks now. I’m also surprised at the gap between ND and UGA considering their meeting earlier this year. I really think UGA stumbling to Carolina was more detrimental to ND’s playoff hopes that UGA’s. Agree?
I know the first CFP rankings are a few weeks off, but I’ll give you my prediction (for the 11/5 rankings) and see what you think….
LSU decisively beats Bama and jumps to #1… (Although as a Bama fan this pains me to say)
I like Ohio State at #2, at least for these initial rankings. As you have mentioned, the showdown with Penn State is the one to watch.
Oklahoma sits at #3. Just can’t see them stumbling between now and then.
Clemson at #4. Being the defending champs, I don’t see the committee leaving them out as they will be undefeated courtesy of their schedule.
Agree? Disagree? Will be interesting to look back in a couple weeks and see how close/far off this is.
Hi Tyler – sorry for the delay – in front of a client all day. I see a few separate things in your comment – let’s see if I can answer them: Florida is number 3 for the second straight week – I was a little surprised to see that from a 1-loss team this early in the season. After the bye week and the UGA (27) game, their opponents have a combined losing record and that may pull them down a bit, even if they win, because of the schedule impact. But, that is why they play the games. The GCR is non-emotional and puts them in the order according to the math. Speaking of UGA, they are ranked #27 which is the highest they’ve been ranked all season. Their SOS is 133rd in the nation – the 3 they played before ND were Vanderbilt (135), Murray State (175), and Arkansas State (105). After ND they’ve played Tennessee (93), South Carolina (52), and Kentucky (104). The team that has the 134th SOS? North Carolina A&T of the MEAC. Notre Dame (12) beat Louisville (43) and New Mexico (202) prior to the loss and bested Virginia (29), Bowling Green (181), and Southern California (38). They are 19th in SOS so far. UGA has the 14th most difficult schedule through the rest of season facing both Auburn (7) and Florida. ND has the 33rd with Duke (32) and Navy (25). Both teams have hurdles to face, but I think UGA has the tougher road because of the loss to South Carolina more than Notre Dame’s loss to UGA (both games in Athens).
As far as the top 4…I mentioned my roundabout guess work. Your’s is as good as mine – it’s still October and too early to guess. Clemson, Oklahoma, and Alabama have won big because a) they are pretty good football teams, and b) their SOS is…wanting. I agree that we will see. hope this answers the questions, G