So after a 2000+ word post last night on how college football should be structured, I’ll try to be a little bit brief tonight (I would take the over on whatever Vegas has for this one). It is now October and the games are heating up even as some of the country’s temperatures are cooling off (I live in the Atlanta area and not here yet). Before we get into the games of the week, a new feature: the closest game according to the GCR. This week it is Air Force (32) at Navy (130) with the Falcons having a hairs-breadth advantage of 50.3%. If you don’t like running backs, you should avoid this game.
But close games do not equate to games of the week. This week I have 4 really important games and 6 runners up. All but 3 of them are before Saturday night. Let’s start with a weekday game. Most of the games this week, the GCR is against Vegas. Overall, 12 of the 48 FBS games disagree with Vegas. 6 of them are listed below.
Friday night at 8:00 (all times Eastern), UCF (61) faces Cincinnati (12) in what could be the American East decider. I know Temple (55) also has just one-loss and should handle East Carolina (140) tonight. Whoever wins Friday night, at worst, has a show down with the Owls later. Either way, they control their own destiny. Each team has one non-conference loss (UCF lost to Pittsburgh (67) and Ohio State (1) took down the Bearcats). While Cincinnati is a consistently good team (see last post), UCF has higher expectations. This game could even end the UCF era, depending on the outcome and differential – this happens to teams more often than not – a few good years, then a disappointing season that leads to mediocrity. A lot is on this game and it’s a really good example of why the games of the week aren’t just the games between top 25 teams. UCF is favored by 4, but I have Cincinnati at 67.1% at home. Call this game the upset of the week and the end of an era.
At noon, there are a few intriguing games, but the one that stands out the most is Iowa (6) at Michigan (17). It’s hard to win at the Big House for any team with 100,000 screaming Wolverines. It is imperative that Michigan win this game if they want a chance above 0% to win the East. Iowa is trying to stay perfect while Minnesota (23) takes on Illinois (85) – Minnesota has a 76.6% chance to keep the 0 in the loss column – and Wisconsin (13) plays Kent State (37) – the Badgers have a 79.6% chance of remaining undefeated. Michigan hasn’t really impressed yet with wins over Middle Tennessee State (110), Army (38) in OT, and Rutgers (112) and losing by 21 to Wisconsin (13). Iowa has been perfect over Miami of Ohio (63), Rutgers, Iowa State (68) and Middle Tennessee State. It’s rare this early in the season for 2 teams to share 2 opponents so let’s compare those. Iowa outscored them 78-3 while Michigan won 92-21. Point differential is close. Michigan’s offense did more while Iowa didn’t allow a TD. There are a couple of metrics I use that I call Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency. If a team scores the same number of points that its opponent normally allows it would receive a score of 100. More than 100 means better offense than the norm. Defense is the reverse. Iowa has an OE of 102 (116th in the nation) but a DE of 280 (7th). Michigan is more even with an OE of 136 (34th) and DE of 142 (44th). The cheap way to predict this game is low-scoring is advantage to Iowa, shoot out to Michigan. But the GCR doesn’t take the cheap way and although Vegas is giving Michigan a home field advantage of 3.5, I predict Iowa is the better team and “upsets” Michigan, BUT the confidence is low. Iowa at 52.3%.
Just missed the cut games are TCU (54) at Iowa State (68). TCU is in must win mode to stay relevant in the Big 12. They should win but it’s paper thin – 50.7%. Also look for Oklahoma State (46) and Texas Tech (41) to be much closer than the 10 points Vegas is putting on the Cowboys.
The mid-afternoon games have some fun games too, but Auburn (7) at Florida (11) is, how should I say this?…. HUGE. There are 5 undefeated teams in the SEC and here are 2 of them – neither one picked by the TV experts to win their divisions. Both need this win. Florida still faces LSU (5) and Georgia (20) and Auburn has those two games and then the Iron Bowl against Alabama (3). The Tigers have wins over Oregon (21), Tulane (34), Kent State (37), Texas A&M (33), and Mississippi State (35) so playing a tough team is nothing new. Florida bested Miami (19), UT Martin (92), Kentucky (113), Tennessee (125), and Towson (89). I completely understand why Auburn is favored by 3 in Vegas, but Florida wins this one and puts the War Eagle behind the 8 ball – 61.4%
Other mid-afternoon games to pay attention to are Texas (16) at West Virginia (40) – I expect the Mountaineers to win a close one (51.4%). Baylor (25) at Kansas State (14) has the Wildcats edging out the Bears 53.5% of the time.
The best night game is critical in the Pac 12 North. California (31) will pay Oregon (21) a visit. This is a game not just between 2 one-loss teams, but for the quickly fading relevance of the Pac 12 in general. The Bears unexpectedly lost to Arizona State (22) last week and cannot afford another set back. Oregon has been on a roll since an opening week loss to Auburn (7). I have Oregon going 4-1 overall and 2-0 in the conference 58.1% of the time.
Others to follow are Michigan State (43) at Ohio State (1) – Ohio State should win pretty easily (76.0%) but they are the GCR #1 team. Pittsburgh (67) and Duke (9) is interesting too. Can Duke stay relevant in the ACC? Which Pittsburgh shows up – the one that beat UCF (61) or the one that almost lost to Delaware (158)? I think Duke – 77.5% of the time.
That’s it. If you send a request for the pct to win for a particular game not mentioned, I will respond as quickly as possible. As always comments, questions, discussion, challenges are welcome. Please share with friends and subscribe if you haven’t already.
Happy weekend, r
