G’s Expectation or Who is Ready for Some Football?

Hi there college football fans,

This week is the annual boom or bust week, or so it seems. There are a ton of teams playing down a level this week and those games are usually not so exciting, unless it’s your team that’s expected to destroy some weak competition – more on this in a moment. There are a few intriguing games. Nebraska is playing at Colorado. While the Huskers are 4.5 point favorites, they were actually out-gained by the Sun Belt’s South Alabama team. Of course so was Colorado by the Mountain West’s Colorado State. Does either team have a defense? Colorado did cover in that game (the only Power 5 school to do that against the MTW scrappy teams) while Nebraska’s 14 point victory missed the Vegas mark by a mere 22 points (yes, they were 36 point faves). One of these teams is going to be climbing ranking ladders and the other, I suspect, will fall into oblivion. There isn’t enough data yet for the GCR to predict (coming soon), but this will be one I’m keeping my eye on. I’d bet both the Big 10 and Pac 12 championship pictures will be impacted by this game. The winner has a lot of confidence and could be a player; the lose…not so much.

Another big game, especially the way it played out last year (for those who may not know a controversial call in close games create tons of press), is the Clemson/Texas A&M game. Last year the Aggies were THIS close to beating a team no one else really even came close to. Clemson is a 17.5 point favorite, but that sounds high to me (please do not take my advice when gambling – this is not that kind of site). Clemson beat a rebuilding non-option with undersized linemen Georgia Tech by 38 (spread was 36). Texas A&M just missed covering their 34.5 point spread to the Sun Belt’s Texas State. Last year, the team’s matched up well, but the game is in Death Valley – East (call out to LSU fans). The Jimbo/Dabo bowl (I just coined that – it should stick and be in all the papers soon), is not new. They’ve been rivals for years and obviously this game has national implications. The Aggies have a lot to prove (they desperately want to be a major player in the SEC and nationally) and the Tigers have a lot to lose. The game is important to them because after playing at Syracuse (who almost always plays Clemson well) next week, the only other truly interesting game is against Boston College (assuming that their win over Virginia Tech is neither a fluke or a sign that the Hokies are still sliding).

The third intriguing match-up in this less than stellar week is a border battle between the Texas Longhorns and the LSU Tigers. Both teams are coming off of routs of Group of 5 schools. LSU held a triple-option Georgia Southern to 74 yards rushing and 98 yards total offense. They threw for 350 yards and easily covered the 27.5 spread 55-3. Texas, on the other hand, gave up over 400 yards including 340 in the air to Louisiana Tech. They did hold them to just 14 points, but it could get ugly fast if they can’t stop the pass. Of course, Murphy’s Law says it’s going to be a 10-6 defensive struggle after that analysis, but what can you do.

There are tons of games this week that don’t look very important (FBS vs FCS, FCS vs Division II or even NAIA), but they do have an impact on both SOS and, if an upset occurs, on the rankings at year end. There can be no sleeping. Which makes me think – are the tune-up games (assuming that’s what they sort of kind of are) worth it? There’s no upside for Boston College beating Richmond even if it’s a 60 point blowout. There’s some pain for a poorly played win that’s closer than expected but there’s a TON of hurt in that upset (which happens 5-10 times a year).

I’d love to hear your thoughts on that. For that matter, I’d love to hear what questions you have, what topics you’d like me to cover, your favorite teams to love or hate (maybe sometimes both). Comment on this, or any other post, and I’ll do the best I can. I’m hoping this site can become interactive (including readers responding to other’s comments – we are respectful here). Let me know,

r