G’s Evaluation for Week 10
Hello fans. Was it just me or did it seem there were a ton of byes this weekend? There was only one marquee matchup between top 25 teams: Georgia (then 22, now 11) beat Florida (then 6, now 9). It turns out there were 45 teams that were bye out of 256. That is the 4th most with the weekend of September 28 leading the way with 48 teams sitting it out. The difference this weekend was 10 of the top 25 including the top 4 and 17 of the top 50 were out. On the flip side only 8 of the bottom 50 were licking their wounds so even though the NUMBER of games wasn’t that low, the QUALITY of the games was below average. Next week we have some huge games so make sure to read Thursday’s G’s Expectations.
There were some upsets this weekend. While the upset list only covers FBS teams, I do want to congratulate the Colgate Raiders who upended 84.6% to win Georgetown Hoyas 24-14 – the biggest GCR upset this week. Here’s a list of the FBS Vegas upsets led by the first game of the weekend for the biggest point spread upset – Congratulations to the Georgia Southern Eagles!
| Favorite | Underdog | Line | Score |
| App State | Ga Southern | 14.0 | 24-21 |
| Nebraska | Purdue | 4.0 | 31-27 |
| Syracuse | Boston College | 3.0 | 58-27 |
| N Illinois | C Michigan | 1.0 | 48-10 |
| Troy | Coastal Carolina | 1.0 | 36-35 |
| Middle Tenn St | Charlotte | 3.5 | 34-20 |
| Florida State | Miami | 3.5 | 27-10 |
| W Kentucky | Florida Atl | 1.0 | 35-24 |
| Arizona | Oregon State | 5.5 | 56-38 |
| North Carolina | Virginia | 1.0 | 38-31 |
| Utah State | BYU | 3.0 | 42-14 |
| Hawaii | Fresno State | 2.5 | 41-38 |
Earlier in the week, in G’s Expectations for Week 10, I picked 7 games that had a different winner than Vegas. One of them was North Carolina (59) over Virginia (30). Over the week, the Vegas line changed to make UNC the favorite so I’m taking that game out in this analysis – Virginia ended up with the now upset. I was 3-3 both straight up and against the spread this week. Central Michigan (100) beat Northern Illinois (123), Charlotte (103) took out Middle Tennessee State (135), and Miami (35) upended Florida State (52). I was wrong on Florida/Georgia, UAB (78)/Tennessee (88), and Oregon(18)/Southern Cal (38). There’s always next week.
Overall, the GCR is picking games fairly accurately, almost hitting the overall expected wins perfectly. The FCS games (first year in the mix) are a little low and the 50-59% range is lower than expected for both FBS and FCS. I’ll continue to work on improving the calcs behind the predictions and see if I can up the numbers a bit. Here they are, first this week’s, and then YTD (since I started tracking).
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 6-8 (.429) | 13-12 (.520) | 19-20 (.487) | 21.45 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 10-4 (.714) | 9-5 (.643) | 19-9 (.679) | 18.20 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 10-2 (.833) | 7-5 (.583) | 17-7 (.708) | 18.00 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 5-0 (1.000) | 4-1 (.800) | 9-1 (.900) | 8.50 |
| 90.0%+ | 3-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 4-0 (1.000) | 3.80 |
| Total | 34-14 (.708) | 34-23 (.596) | 68-37 (.648) | 69.95 |
| Decile | FBS | FCS | Total | Expected Wins |
| 50.0-59.9% | 35-32 (.522) | 46-36 (.561) | 81-68 (.544) | 82.0 |
| 60.0-69.9% | 40-15 (.727) | 43-24 (.642) | 83-39 (.680) | 79.3 |
| 70.0-79.9% | 33-8 (.805) | 28-15 (.651) | 61-23 (.726) | 63.0 |
| 80.0-89.9% | 22-3 (.880) | 13-4 (.765) | 35-7 (.833) | 35.7 |
| 90.0%+ | 9-1 (.900) | 15-1 (.938) | 24-2 (.923) | 24.7 |
| Total | 139-59 (.702) | 145-80 (.644) | 284-139 (.671) | 284.7 |
Without further ado, here are this week’s rankings from Ohio State (1) to Texas Southern (256) and everyone in between. One note, I took out a couple of columns and replaced them with others. Let me know if you like the changes – and as always, share with others. Thanks, G!
