G’s Evaluation or Eight Top 25 Losses in One Week!

Welcome back, wonderful sports fans, to episode 720 which is mostly the GCR’s Week 8 Top 266, with other analysis. Let’s jump into it with bringing up another mini-upset week. Overall, upsets were fairly rare, in comparison to the last couple of weeks. The odd thing this week was the elite falling. Eight of the GCR Week 7 Top 25 lost, which is a lot any week, but six (Notre Dame, Ohio St, Wake Forest, Georgia, Nebraska, and Missouri) were idle. There were two games between GCR Top 25 teams (Texas beat Mississippi and Utah beat Houston). The remaining 15 teams were just 9-6 against non-Top 25 teams. Texas Tech (then #4) lost to Cincinnati, Tennessee (15) lost to South Carolina, James Madison (17) lost to App St, Southern Cal (19) lost to Wisconsin, Iowa (20) lost to Minnesota, and Oregon (25) lost to Illinois. The chaos that is the 2026 football season is wonderful. We hope you are enjoying it as much as we are. Certainly, it is something close to pain when “my” team loses to someone they “shouldn’t” as well as exhilarating when “my” team upsets a better team, but when we step back and look at the overall landscape, the chaos is good. It means the season isn’t close to being resolved. The 12-team (or 24-team FCS) playoff is not even close to being solidified. Tons of teams are still mathematically in. The regular season still matters.

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Prior to the games of Week 8, 17 teams had clinched bowl eligibility while no team had been eliminated. As a reminder, eligibility (although not guaranteed depending on the number of qualified teams) is pretty simple: 6 wins, with no more than one coming against an FCS opponent, in a 12-game season. If a team plays 13, they must win 7 to qualify. If there are not enough 6-win teams to fill all of the bowl slots, a 6-7 team gets first dibs, followed by the 5-7 teams ranked by Academic Progress Rate (APR). It is not uncommon for 5-7 teams to decline so the top APR team is not always the one that plays. That said, generally having 7 or more losses disqualifies a team from contention. This week we added 12 bowl eligible teams: Alabama, Arizona, Boise St, Liberty, LSU, Memphis, New Mexico, Northwestern, Ohio, SMU, Toledo, and Virginia Tech. We also have our first “wait until next year” group: Akron, N Illinois, Rice (usually an option for a 5-7 bowl), Sacramento St, and Washington St. There are 82 teams needed to fill the bowl slots: we now have 29 in and 5 out.

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The GCR predictions showed some improvement over the last couple of weeks, but still well below our objectives of 750 straight up (just picking the winner) and 575 against the spread (adding the Vegas spread). Here is the latest update.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (000)
0-2 (000)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643) 14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941) 11-6 (647)8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709) 56-60 (483)
313-7 (650) 10-10 (500)18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712) 53-53 (500)
413-10 (565) 17-6 (739)7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762)
13-8 (619)
8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726) 74-39 (655)
517-10 (630) 16-11 (593)2-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
1-0 (1000)
0-1 (000)
19-7 (731)
18-8 (692)
2-0 (1000)
2-0 (1000)
33-20 (623)
28-20 (583)
74-37 (667) 66-41 (617)
617-9 (654) 14-12 (538)1-1 (500)
0-2 (000)
—18-13 (581) 15-15 (500) —28-18 (609)
22-22 (500)
64-41 (610) 51-51 (500)
713-15 (464) 9-19 (321) —3-0 (1000)
0-2 (0)00
22-9 (710)
16-15 (516)
—32-21 (604)
13-13 (500)
70-45 (609) 38-49 (437)
815-12 (556) 14-13 (519) — —19-9 (679)
17-12 (586)
—36-19 (655)
16-18 (471)
70-40 (636) 47-43 (522)
Total97-68 (588) 86-79 (521)44-5 (898) 28-22 (560)24-8 (750) 18-13 (581)117-56 (676) 97-76 (561)35-9 (795) 20-23 (465)223-124 (643) 150-135 (526)540-270 (667) 399-348 (534)

…..

When we first started what would become the GCR 14 years ago, it was simply about ranking the teams. We started with just the FBS. Originally, we only wanted to look at the Power 5, but it proved easier to include the Group of 5 too. A few years later, we added the FCS – partly to make the posting about all of Division I football and partly because we had to keep track of the FCS teams that played an FBS team for strength of schedule purposes – because it was both more complete and, frankly, simpler. Along the way, we added predictions which was not part of the original design at all. A friend asked if we could figure out a way to add predictions and we took the challenge. We’ve tweaked the logic multiple times (for both the ranking and the predictions) as we’ve grown, but the heart of the GCR is the Top (now) 266. We’ve expressed frustration about the added bits, but we don’t think a reader can find a regret about the ranking. The logic, we believe, is sound with an appropriate mix of performance and strength of schedule (SOS). We built it with as few assumptions as possible. 1) away games are more difficult than home games (neutral sites are in the middle), 2) when comparing a Core 4 team, a Group of 6 team, and an FCS team with identical win-loss records, the Core 4 team is “stronger” than the Group of 6 than the FCS – that logic leads to the discount for playing “down” and the bonus for playing “up”, 3) a team’s record at game time is not a reflection of that team’s overall strength (in the SOS calc), but rather a team’s record/rank “now” which means beating a 2-0 team that ends up 4-8 does not help one’s SOS, and 4) point differential matters only to eliminate “ties” in the ranking – there is an immediate and steep declining scale such that running up the score does little to change the rank of a team. With that, Miami FL holds on the top spot for the 3rd consecutive week and 4th overall. Murray St is still in the Top 266 holding up everyone else. Here is the complete list

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1Miami FLACC7049.015.314.662100.00
2UCLAB107034.415.313.37193.45
3Notre DameND6141.113.413.35393.34
4Ohio StB106139.313.413.19492.55
5UtahB127037.414.612.54589.22
6AlabamaSEC6238.321.312.49988.99
7IndianaB107133.612.012.101087.03
8ArizonaB126136.116.712.071786.86
9Wake ForestACC6137.419.412.06786.82
10LSUSEC6240.116.011.951486.23
11GeorgiaSEC6143.015.911.931386.14
12Texas TechB126135.920.411.461683.75
13NorthwesternB106134.716.611.401883.44
14BYUB126133.118.611.181182.35
15HoustonB126236.021.011.141982.11
16KentuckySEC7132.924.810.93681.06
17MississippiSEC5236.025.310.761280.22
18TexasSEC5230.719.110.47878.73
19SMUACC6136.421.110.432078.53
20Oklahoma StB125240.023.710.372778.22
21TennesseeSEC6232.316.310.322177.99
22WisconsinB105227.015.310.262277.69
23NebraskaB105235.615.410.143577.07
24LibertyUSA6131.614.09.957676.09
25CincinnatiB125235.426.49.922375.97
26MissouriSEC5231.119.69.832875.50
27Boise StPAC6134.420.69.745875.05
28James MadisonSUN7141.418.39.716674.88
29Virginia TechACC6235.020.59.553474.06
30New MexicoMWC6137.011.39.506773.80
31Southern CalB106232.825.09.422473.39
32FloridaSEC5239.628.39.361573.12
33IowaB105228.014.39.233072.43
34DukeACC5229.916.09.013871.34
35PittsburghACC5331.620.99.013771.32
36OregonB104333.120.78.993671.22
37South CarolinaSEC4336.125.38.953371.02
38OklahomaSEC4321.617.78.622669.32
39North Dakota StMWC6227.812.58.617769.30
40UTSAAAC7133.526.08.485668.65
41LouisvilleACC4338.727.48.474268.60
42UCFB124332.723.08.474168.59
43Mississippi StSEC4330.027.78.422568.34
44Oregon StPAC5242.723.18.416868.28
45Boston CollegeACC4324.423.68.164567.00
46MemphisAAC6236.123.88.087466.59
47AuburnSEC4325.424.18.022966.28
48Texas A&MSEC4428.318.97.994666.13
49MichiganB104320.315.77.933265.86
50MinnesotaB105226.620.17.863165.49
51BaylorB124329.116.17.845065.39
52North CarolinaACC4324.420.97.804365.17
53ClemsonACC4321.421.37.744064.87
54North TexasAAC5243.130.67.627264.26
55OhioMAC6229.621.97.507363.66
56South FloridaAAC5226.615.17.418863.18
57ToledoMAC6237.425.47.407563.17
58Florida StACC3431.627.97.395563.12
59WashingtonB104327.922.77.315362.66
60West VirginiaB125335.932.37.283962.53
61Kansas StB124332.921.17.204962.15
62Penn StB103428.718.97.205762.12
63IllinoisB104330.325.37.174461.98
64LA TechSUN5232.321.07.137161.77
65ArmyAAC5235.322.17.117961.67
66VirginiaACC4428.319.67.065461.41
67Iowa StB123425.924.16.955260.87
68Air ForceMWC5228.420.96.929260.71
69LouisianaSUN5330.121.36.889460.51
70Fresno StPAC4327.620.96.759359.86
71Arizona StB124330.929.96.635159.23
72PurdueB103431.332.36.584759.00
73Jax StUSA5227.322.76.548458.76
74FAUAAC5237.334.06.518658.63
75TCUB123423.413.96.506158.59
76UNLVMWC4324.123.76.418358.10
77W MichiganMAC5326.620.46.358557.82
78Georgia StSUN4335.926.06.2110557.10
79StanfordACC4419.935.56.124856.64
80South AlabamaSUN4335.132.46.129156.64
81ArkansasSEC3421.026.76.105956.54
82KansasB123431.024.06.106356.53
83App StSUN5230.123.16.099056.47
84WyomingMWC5319.520.05.8410055.25
85UCONNIND4335.623.95.8110755.05
86Texas StPAC4337.130.05.777854.88
87Miami OHMAC5327.025.85.598953.96
88SyracuseACC3431.626.35.566953.78
89BuffaloMAC5322.625.45.549853.71
90TulsaAAC4429.824.45.3010352.47
91NC StACC3432.328.15.246552.20
92Michigan StB102619.925.85.196451.95
93NevadaMWC3426.322.05.1811751.87
94UMASSMAC4426.521.15.1512251.73
95UABAAC4323.324.65.1310251.62
96Montana StSKY7139.520.45.0614651.28
97VanderbiltSEC3522.830.34.966250.74
98TarletonUAC8041.922.64.9015650.45
99FIUUSA3420.116.34.8411550.13
100Mid TennUSA4323.327.64.829950.06
101CaliforniaACC3523.431.64.676049.28
102San Jose StMWC4420.422.54.6311349.09
103Steph F AustinSLAN8041.414.44.5316148.59
104Arkansas StSUN4428.827.34.5211148.50
105MarshallSUN4321.730.74.509748.39
106ColoradoB122520.130.14.457048.18
107East CarolinaAAC3425.026.34.3111047.46
108Ga SouthernSUN3424.423.04.259547.15
109MarylandB102528.333.34.248147.09
110W KentuckyUSA3421.330.64.2110846.93
111TulaneAAC3420.324.64.138746.55
112RutgersB102528.733.34.098046.33
113C MichiganMAC3517.925.94.0510646.11
114HarvardIVY6028.512.84.0316346.05
115Georgia TechACC2526.730.33.938245.52
116E MichiganMAC4521.325.73.8711245.20
117DelawareUSA3428.328.43.6911444.29
118TroySUN3422.924.93.6812144.23
119LehighPAT6232.317.93.4321542.99
120San Diego StPAC3526.536.13.3810142.75
121NavyAAC2529.729.13.3812542.71
122Utah StPAC2514.923.03.3211642.44
123TN TechSoCon7133.321.53.2917642.29
124New Mexico StUSA3424.625.43.2811842.22
125Colorado StPAC3438.644.03.279642.19
126Kent StMAC3514.930.53.2610442.11
127Idaho StSKY5333.420.83.2119941.87
128Ball StMAC3522.035.33.1010941.32
129South DakotaMFC7237.724.22.7714539.61
130Illinois StMFC6235.116.32.7317739.40
131CoastalSUN2526.125.92.6312338.90
132Alabama A&MSWAC6240.120.02.6120738.81
133South Dakota StMFC6237.115.82.6014338.76
134PrincetonIVY4220.314.32.4620338.07
135ChattanoogaSoCon5322.613.32.4422537.96
136HawaiiMWC2620.824.52.4312037.88
137Austin PeayUAC7233.918.72.3616237.57
138Bowling GreenMAC2618.829.82.3312637.42
139Youngstown StMFC6239.123.12.3313937.41
140AlbanyCAA5326.819.12.3218437.36
141CampbellCAA7132.924.92.2014036.75
142Missouri StUSA2524.434.92.0412435.92
143DaytonPFL6132.020.01.9823435.59
144TempleAAC2525.728.01.8912735.15
145LamarSLAN6230.822.51.8415234.91
146Old DominionSUN2615.526.81.8311934.86
147SC StMEAC6240.917.61.7720834.57
148St ThomasPFL6236.927.11.7414834.41
149North DakotaMFC6335.125.21.6914434.15
150ButlerPFL6233.321.51.6424833.90
151MercerSoCon6230.617.11.6316433.85
152MontanaSKY5337.828.01.5016533.17
153Southern MissSUN2525.732.41.4313032.83
154MonmouthCAA6231.329.11.4216832.76
155Jackson StSWAC6235.622.01.4021732.69
156E Tenn StSoCon6233.421.91.1914931.60
157ColgatePAT4419.615.61.1820031.56
158BrownIVY3318.816.21.1323731.29
159WoffordSoCon5326.023.11.0419030.85
160CornellIVY3331.329.31.0424330.83
161DartmouthIVY3322.322.01.0124730.71
162Kennesaw StUSA1620.025.00.9513530.41
163RiceAAC1721.031.80.9213330.23
164YaleIVY3329.327.00.9125030.20
165Sam HoustonUSA1620.125.30.9013630.13
166N ArizonaSKY6231.630.10.8614229.93
167ValparaisoPFL4427.021.60.8225829.74
168Stony BrookCAA5332.930.40.7619129.44
169Alabama StSWAC4325.717.90.7121629.18
170PennIVY3318.718.30.6124528.66
171MaristPFL4424.421.50.5225928.20
172West FloridaUAC4324.122.00.4723127.94
173AkronMAC1719.032.80.4212927.70
174BryantCAA5319.622.60.3817927.47
175SEMOBSOV5324.423.60.3616727.40
176Rhode IslandCAA4424.525.50.2922727.04
177CharlotteAAC1619.140.60.2813227.01
178UC DavisSKY5332.031.00.2715426.95
179RichmondPAT6220.924.40.2715526.91
180ULMSUN1620.137.30.2213426.70
181SELASLAN4427.930.40.2218026.70
182Washington StPAC1718.927.60.1512826.32
183Incarnate WordSLAN4435.528.30.1118726.14
184Weber StSKY5435.934.60.1119726.11
185PresbyterianPFL4427.338.50.0526125.82
186ColumbiaIVY4225.729.8-0.0122925.53
187North AlabamaUAC4423.923.1-0.0417825.36
188S UtahSKY3531.833.1-0.1520524.78
189C ConnecticutNEC4334.435.0-0.1718224.70
190Robert MorrisNEC4424.823.9-0.2625224.25
191Gardner WebbBSOV2619.622.5-0.2619424.24
192Abilene ChrUAC4421.925.3-0.3915023.60
193San DiegoPFL3529.037.3-0.4425723.35
194ElonCAA4423.419.5-0.4721123.19
195Morgan StMEAC5327.827.0-0.4815723.11
196W IllinoisBSOV4434.525.1-0.5217222.92
197DrakePFL2624.534.3-0.5326222.88
198Rio GrandeSLAN4521.225.6-0.5421822.82
199Ark Pine BluffSWAC4332.630.9-0.5515822.79
200BethuneSWAC5327.928.1-0.5817522.59
201GeorgetownPAT3420.326.0-0.6425122.34
202N ColoradoSKY3621.726.3-0.6623822.23
203UTEPMWC1615.137.3-0.6813122.11
204VillanovaPAT4425.028.4-0.6818322.11
205LafayettePAT3423.729.6-0.6922822.04
206Sacred HeartCAA3420.124.3-0.7323221.88
207Cal PolySKY4527.931.4-0.7923321.54
208Sacramento StMAC1715.332.9-0.9113820.93
209NC CentralMEAC3524.027.9-0.9323520.87
210S IllinoisMFC4522.626.3-0.9318520.85
211N IowaMFC3424.428.0-0.9316020.84
212Holy CrossPAT3521.928.8-0.9522620.73
213Alcorn StSWAC4441.937.0-1.0123020.42
214W CarolinaSoCon3529.932.6-1.0216620.38
215Prairie ViewSWAC4525.329.4-1.0721320.12
216N IllinoisMWC0715.138.6-1.1513719.73
217SamfordSoCon2617.923.1-1.1524619.70
218StonehillNEC3517.021.9-1.1619819.69
219NC A&TCAA3520.329.5-1.2323919.29
220Houston ChrSLAN4428.926.6-1.3116918.91
221E KentuckyUAC3518.328.8-1.3122018.89
222New HavenNEC2615.329.0-1.3325618.80
223Chrls SoBSOV4423.420.8-1.3414718.74
224DuquesneNEC3421.928.1-1.3517018.72
225IdahoSKY3529.937.9-1.3515918.68
226Norfolk StMEAC4431.823.3-1.3625218.64
227Delaware StMEAC4422.026.0-1.4322118.31
228DavidsonPFL3523.937.5-1.5526317.69
229LindenwoodBSOV3422.927.1-1.5820217.53
230MerrimackFCSIND3517.928.8-1.6124417.40
231Morehead StPFL2628.043.3-1.6126517.38
232GramblingSWAC4336.739.3-1.6818617.01
233East TexasSLAN2618.430.0-1.7124916.88
234FurmanSoCon2615.121.3-1.8822316.02
235UT MartinBSOV3523.633.0-1.9715315.53
236Indiana StMFC2625.534.8-1.9820615.50
237MS ValleySWAC3517.834.1-2.0925414.94
238McNeeseSLAN3523.029.8-2.1318914.74
239E IllinoisBSOV2616.831.6-2.1421014.67
240C ArkansasUAC2625.130.8-2.1722214.55
241SouthernSWAC3522.933.4-2.1818814.49
242StetsonPFL1723.343.1-2.2326614.22
243HowardMEAC4420.429.9-2.2714114.01
244E WashingtonSKY2627.038.1-2.2820413.99
245Chicago StFCSIND1724.438.8-2.2826413.99
246TN StBSOV2617.531.4-2.5319312.72
247William & MaryPAT3521.136.0-2.5920912.43
248Long IslandNEC3614.625.9-2.6318112.22
249Florida A&MSWAC2620.033.6-2.6719512.01
250New HampshireCAA2719.333.2-2.6724111.99
251TX SouthernSWAC2524.943.0-2.8922410.89
252BucknellPAT179.426.1-2.9324210.68
253CitadelSoCon2618.533.8-3.131929.66
254FordhamPAT2715.931.3-3.202149.29
255MaineCAA1713.429.6-3.312018.76
256Nwestern StSLAN0820.044.8-3.432608.17
257Utah TechSKY1718.440.8-3.602127.29
258TowsonCAA0822.534.8-3.702196.80
259Portland StSKY2621.843.3-3.731516.64
260NichollsSLAN3516.139.5-3.821966.15
261MercyhurstNEC1720.641.8-4.401713.20
262West GeorgiaUAC1716.133.5-4.532402.57
263HamptonCAA1717.036.3-4.662361.89
264WagnerNEC1713.138.8-4.881730.77
265VMISoCon088.041.3-4.912550.60
266Murray StMFC1714.841.8-5.031740.00

…..

That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a preview of Men’s and Women’s basketball which tips off with Notre Dame/Villanova (both genders) from Rome, Italy on November 1st. The GCR is tested as much as we can, programmed with the more than 10K games, and ready to go. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G.

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