Happy Sunday college football fans and welcome to 2020s first GCR published rankings. How, you may but probably won’t ask, can you publish when some teams haven’t played yet and some have only played 1 game? Well, it all comes down to the shower. No, not TMI at all, it’s just I tend to think in the shower and have a pretty good whiteboard – or steam-soaked glass – ready and waiting for formula construction. The issue with early publishing in previous years was the denominator. Early games were worth what seemed like a billion points because the denominator was, essentially, 1. It meant that teams that started later than others had a early advantage, until the pesky denominator increased to a point that it washed. Also, as I’ve mentioned before, the GCR doesn’t look at games as things that happened in the past, but rather all games happen…now. Those inflated numbers drop as opponents are not perfect or perfectly imperfect any longer. In the past, I simply let a few weeks go by and it “corrected” itself. 2020 came along and really exposed the weakness in the GCR around this issue. The solution I came up with isn’t perfect (1 game teams are still a little inflated – see FIU and FAU), but it is substantially better. And it will work in future years which means earlier debuts.
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The approach was to build an adjustment for both SOS and Performance Score the impact of which reduces for each game played. There is a limit – so bowl games or playoffs or championship or extra Hawaii-game rules don’t add unnecessary value. It means that the scores themselves are quite low at this time of year compared to where they will be later, but it doesn’t provide a discount to teams that start early. Last week when the SEC played their initial games, all of them were in the top 18. Every single team. Clearly, that is not accurate. That is what really got me thinking about a solution for the problem. Without a change, when the Big 10 starts in a couple of weeks, they would own the top 20. Then the next week, the Mountain West would make a play, and the Pac-12 would steal it starting November 7. The MAC would make a difference as soon as they, you know, publish their schedule and all. With the adjustment 0-2 Vanderbilt is 44th (out of 86). That makes a bit more senses with losses to Texas A&M (20th) and LSU (24th).
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So, without further ado and hoping at least someone got through all of that, here is the 2020 debut GCR from UNC (1) to Citadel (86).
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UNC picks up the #1 spot with victories over Syracuse (1-2 29) and at Boston College (2-1 27). Georgia jumps into 2nd with a come-from-behind win at Arkansas (1-1 19) and versus Auburn (1-1 18). Virginia Tech rounds out the top 3 with wins over NC St (2-1 9) and at Duke (0-4 47). Oklahoma St is the only remaining unbeaten team in the Big 12 coming in at #8.
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Like I said, this adjustment isn’t perfect, but it solves an 8-year problem and gives us a dartboard to start some conversation. This post has been a lot more fun to think about and write than the doom and gloom that has been.
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That’s it for this one. Please comment as you’d like and most importantly, share with others so we can spread the GCR love. Thanks, G
