Hi Sports Fanatics and I do have to apologize a bit for the title. I don’t actually pick any team to win, at least directly. I mean, I did write the formula and all that, but sometimes the GCR surprises even me with its picks. There are a couple this week that go that way. Before we get into the games to watch let’s look at the the upsets. There are only 7 this week which is lower than it has been the last couple of weeks. These are listed in order of start time. The first two are not very important games unless you are die hard MAC or Conference USA fans. But then the fun begins. I know the GCR has not been very gracious to UGA this year and my Georgia friends (and my wife) do not like it one bit. Each has one loss – UGA to South Carolina (78) and Florida at LSU (2). UGA’s opponents are 25-30 and they are 1-0 against the GCR top 25. Their best 3 wins are Notre Dame (21), Kentucky (84) and @Tennessee (95). Florida’s opponents are 37-28, and they are 2-1 against the top 25 with their best wins vs Auburn (8), Miami (12) at a neutral site), and @ South Carolina (78). I’m not surprised on the GCR pick as much as I am the Vegas pick. Of course in the world’s largest cocktail party anything can happen, but the GCR picks Florida. The thing that surprises me is 4 of the 7 games have top 50 and the one near miss has a Conference USA team upsetting an SEC team on the road. Tennessee is now looking at being bowl eligible but the GCR predicts another Group of 5 loss (to go with BYU and Georgia State) for the Vols. Maybe the win but don’t cover the spread – either way I think Tennessee will have their hands full this weekend. Here is the full list of projected upsets.
| Home | Away | Vegas | GCR% |
| C. Michigan (126) | N Illinois (139) | N Ill -1.0 | C Mich 64.6% |
| Charlotte (125) | Middle Tenn (137) | MTSU-3.0 | Char 59.3% |
| Georgia (22) | Florida (6) | UGA-6.5 | Florida 66.2% |
| Florida St (48) | Miami (12) | FSU-3.5 | Miami 58.1% |
| Tennessee (95) | UAB (56) | Tenn-11.5 | UAB 62.4% |
| UNC (53) | Virginia (36) | UVA-2.5 | UNC 50.1% |
| Southern Cal (31) | Oregon (20) | Ore-5.0 | SoCal 51.4% |
note: UGA/Florida is at Jacksonville
Not all games to watch are about upsets. Most weeks I make a list of all of the big games or impactful games or games between two teams not used to winning or something that provides some interest. Then I have to cut deep to come up with the 6-10 games in the blog. This week with the exception of the games I’m talking about the slate is a little…what’s the professional term…oh yeah…blah. But, fear not, intrepid game time warriors, there are some not to be missed. Here are the (please cue the trumpets) Week 10 Games to Watch.
Pre-Saturday games are few – exactly 3 FBS and 1 FCS game. As much as I know everyone wants me to talk about Princeton (120) spanking Cornell (201) but I had to resist and go with Thursday night’s Georgia Southern (34) at App State (18). The undefeated Mountaineers have a game and a half lead over the Eagles. Note: Georgia State (67) is in second place and are idle this week. State’s dominance this year is unprecedented in the Sun Belt, usually competing with Conference USA for weakest FBS conference. Everyone in the East are at least 3-4 and only Coastal Carolina is winless in the conference. Maybe this much ignored group is making a stand. Vegas has this game with App State -15.5 and the GCR has them to win 75.7% of the time, but it should be a scarily good game for Halloween.
Normally on Saturdays, I pick a game from each time group and maybe have a few honorable mentions mixed in. This week is a little different because, quite frankly, I don’t want to pick…routine games just to fit a model. So, in time order but no specific time period:
Virginia Tech (42) is traveling to play the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame (21). Neither team is playoff bound but both teams need a win to be bowl eligible. The Hokies would extend their bowl streak to about 600 or something like that (really since 1992) and the Irish, who were in the final 4 last year, need to keep winning to be considered for a New Year’s Six spot. Vegas has ND a whopping -17.5 but the GCR has them at only 57.7%. The Irish win, but in a much closer game than expected.
I already talked about the Georgia/Florida annual party, but here are the numbers. Vegas has the line at -6.5 for the Dawgs. The GCR has Florida at 66.2% at a neutral site. In fact, I ran it as a home/away/neutral and Florida wins in all scenarios. Let’s call this game the upset of the week.
I almost called this week’s blog “G’s Expectation or How the West Was Won” because 2 of the final three games involve the Pac-12. First it’s Utah (19) at Washington (41). Utah is tied, but lose the tie-breaker, with Southern Cal. Both are 4-1 in the conference with the Utes only loss coming to the Trojans. Just that fact puts some importance to this game. The GCR has Utah the highest ranking team in the not so strong conference. Both they and Oregon (20) have just 1 loss overall and are really the only hope against hope (and a bunch of Big 10 and SEC losses) for a playoff berth. Neither can take another loss. Vegas has Utah -3.5 and I think it may be closer than that but the travel to Seattle will be victorious for the Utes who could take the lead of the South division with a SoCal loss to Oregon. Let’s come back to that because we are doing this in time order.
Before we find out about Utah’s fate, let’s talk about another big game. This time in the American conference. The American West has undefeated SMU (23), 7-1 Memphis (30), and 6-1 Navy (25). You know what other divisions have at least 3 teams in the top 30? The Big 10 East and West and the SEC West. That is pretty good company. And two of them play Saturday. Looking at the records, there is not much to prove that SMU at Memphis is a really big game. Navy is playing at Connecticut (204) and should win handily (79.1%) putting even more pressure on this game. SMU is fighting with App State (18) and Cincinnati (9) for the coveted New Year’s Six Group of 5 spot. Memphis is a little bit further behind but giving a team their first loss this late in the season is a big deal in any league. Vegas has Memphis -5.5 and as the trend is this week seems to be, the GCR agrees with the direction but a bit closer, just 53.1%.
Now, back to the Pac-12. We’ve already established Utah stays in the hunt and that team will be watching as Oregon (20) travels to LA (assuming the fires don’t move the game) to play Southern Cal (31). They are currently the division leaders and a pseudo preview of the championship game. With Utah’s win, an Oregon win puts the Utes in front of the West. A Trojan victory keeps the tie (SoCal wins the tie breaker right now), but puts Oregon at 2 losses. If that happens and all 3 win out the rest of the season, the championship will be a rematch between 10-2 Oregon and 9-3 SoCal while the 11-1 Utes are on the sidelines…and barring a major miracle, left out. An Oregon win is really what Utah needs. That puts them in the driver’s seat and a chance to face an 11-1 Oregon as an 11-1 team. The winner would have a much better argument for inclusion. But Utah fans, I have bad news. Vegas is saying Oregon -5 (it opened at -7), but the GCR says the Trojans eke this one out but just at 51.4%. That’s just about as close to a coin toss as it gets. Look for this one to go to the final few minutes.
One last thing before I close. If there is a game you are interested in hearing the GCR % on, comment and I’ll post it. That’s it for this week. Please subscribe, comment, question, and most importantly, share the page. Our readership is growing and it’s all thanks to you.
G
