G’s Expectation or A Trio of Undefeated Games in October?

Happy Wednesday and welcome to the inaugural Conference USA October weekday games. Beginning this year, they are taking a page from the MAC, who plays most of their games on either Tuesday or Wednesday for the month of November, by doing the same for October. That means that starting today, there will be a college or pro football game on the television until Wednesday November 22nd. It’s Nirvana!

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Last week we started with 26 FBS undefeated teams. The Power 5 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12, SEC, and Notre Dame) had 20 of them. 5 were idle and only Duke, Kansas, and Utah suffered losses, giving us 15 going in to week 6. The Group of 5 (American, Conference-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Independents) had 6 with 1 idle team and only 1 loss (Georgia St). That means we have 22 going into October which is a lot (only 16 last year at this point). This theme will come back into play in just a moment. Just for reference, we are down to 3 perfect teams in the FCS (S Illinois and South Dakota St from the Missouri Valley Conference and Harvard from the Ivy League).

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Before we get into the games of the week which all fit the theme, let’s look at the GCR’s results from last week. Straight up (just picking the winner), the GCR was 48-11 (.819) for games involving the FBS and 36-19 (.654) for FCS games. That brings the overall to 223-63 (.780) for the FBS and 103-68 (.602) for the FCS. Against the spread, the GCR was a continued disappointing 34-22 (.607) bringing the season to 95-77 (.552). Each week has seen an improvement so here’s hoping for a good week.

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Tonight’s entertainment include two games with Jacksonville St (4-1/62) in its inaugural FBS season invading Middle Tennessee (1-4/97) kicking off at 8:00 (all times Eastern). The Gamecocks had a comeback victory against fellow newbie Sam Houston last week which is causing Vegas to pick MTSU-3.5. The GCR likes what JAX is doing and is picking them to continue their winning ways at 83% and to cover. At 9:00 New Mexico St (2-3/136) hosts FIU (3-2/112). Vegas likes the Aggies-6.0, but in another upset call, the GCR has FIU winning 61% and to cover.

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Our games of the week feature perfect teams facing each other. First, with a noon kickoff, Oklahoma (5-0/4) goes toe to toe with Texas (5-0/1) in Dallas. The Red River Rivalry will result in the Big 12 having just a single undefeated team left. The soon-to-be SEC foes are very similar. When the Sooners have the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 178 (2nd in the country) which means they score 17.8 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a Longhorn Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 231 (9th) which means they give up 10.0 points for every 23.1 points their opponents normally score. On the flip side, Texas’ OER of 147 (20th) faces an Oklahoma DER of 256 (3rd). Texas’ opponents so far have a winning percentage of .680 and they have played the 15th most difficult schedule. Oklahoma’s opponents are at .520 and they have the 77th most difficult schedule. Vegas likes the battle-tested Longhorns-5.0, but the GCR thinks the balance of Oklahoma will knock Texas around to win 57% and to cover.

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Our second perfect game, also at noon, is Maryland (5-0/10) at Ohio St (4-0/5). The Terps OER of 134 (39th) will be tested against the Buckeyes’ DER of 370 (2nd). Ohio St’s OER of 144 (22nd) will be challenged by Maryland’s DER of 160 (34th). Vegas likes OHST-17.5 and the GCR agrees the Buckeyes live to see another day, 55%, but the game will be closer than Vegas expects. Maryland to cover.

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Our final perfect game, at 7:00, features Georgia (5-0/9) hosting Kentucky (5-0/14) for dominance in the SEC in general and the East specifically. The Bulldogs have struggled compared to the last two years with an OER of 135 (34th) – certainly a number that most teams would crave, but they haven’t dominated this year – and they face a Wildcat DER of 153 (36th). When Kentucky is on offense an OER of 126 (61st) take on the Georgia DER of 208 (13th). Neither team has really been tested this year (GEO’s SOS is 107th and KENT’s is 118) so we don’t really know how either team will respond. Vegas likes Georgia-15.0 and the GCR agrees they will win 61% but Kentucky will make it closer and cover.

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Next is every game this week(end). Good luck to your team and thanks for reading, G.

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Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team
(Record/GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Vegas LineGCR to WinGCR to Cover
   ACC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Boston College (2-3/89)ACC (1-2)Army (2-2/111)IND (0-0)ARMY-4.0ARMY 55%ARMY
12:00William & Mary (4-1/140)CAA (2-1)Virginia (0-5/49)ACC (0-2)NLVIR 52%NL
2:00Marshall (4-0/36)SUN (1-0)NC St (3-2/70)ACC (1-1)NCST-6.0MARS 62%MARS
3:30Virginia Tech (2-3/93)ACC (1-0)Florida St (4-0/13)ACC (2-0)FSU-25.5FSU 96%FSU
3:30Syracuse (4-1/34)ACC (0-1)North Carolina (4-0/16)ACC (1-0)NCAR-9.0NCAR 71%NCAR
3:30Wake Forest (3-1/58)ACC (0-1)Clemson (3-2/41)ACC (1-2)CLEM-20.0CLEM 56%WF
7:30Notre Dame (5-1/18)IND (0-0)Louisville (5-0/11)ACC (3-0)ND-6.5LOU 67%LOU
8:00Georgia Tech (2-3/68)ACC (1-1)Miami FL (4-0/8)ACC (0-0)MIAF-20.0MIAF 84%MIAF
Idle  Duke (4-1/25), Pittsburgh (1-4/120)    
   Big 12 (14 teams)P5   
FRI 7:30Kansas St (3-1/31)B12 (1-0)Oklahoma St (2-2/121)B12 (0-1)KSST-12.0KSST 79%KSST
12:00Oklahoma (5-0/4) – NB12 (2-0)Texas (5-0/1) – NB12 (2-0)TEX-5.0OKLA 57%OKLA
4:00UCF (3-2/78)B12 (0-2)Kansas (4-1/33)B12 (1-1)KAN-3.0KAN 76%KAN
8:00Texas Tech (2-0/56)B12 (1-1)Baylor (2-3/69)B12 (1-1)BAY-1.0TXTC 57%TXTC
8:00TCU (2-3/73)B12 (1-1)Iowa St (2-3/52)B12 (1-1)TCU-5.5TCU 67%TCU
OOC  none    
Idle  BYU (4-1/40), Cincinnati (2-3/74), Houston (2-3/124), West Virginia (4-1/30)    
   Big Ten (14 teams)P5   
FRI 8:00Nebraska (2-3/81)B10 (0-2)Illinois (2-3/67)B10 (0-2)ILL-3.5NEB 55%NEB
12:00Maryland (5-0/10)B10 (2-0)Ohio St (4-0/5)B10 (1-0)OHST-17.5OHST 55%MARY
12:00Rutgers (4-1/27)B10 (1-1)Wisconsin (3-1/35)B10 (1-0)WISC-13.0RUTG 63%RUTG
3:00Howard (2-2/188)MEAC (0-0)Northwestern (2-3/50)B10 (1-2)NLNW 59%NL
3:30Purdue (2-3/83)B10 (1-1)Iowa (4-1/32)B10 (1-1)IOWA-3.5IOWA 93%IOWA
7:30Michigan (5-0/2)B10 (2-0)Minnesota (3-2/71)B10 (1-1)MICH-19.5MICH 97%MICH
OOC  none    
Idle  Indiana (2-3/57), Michigan St (2-3/47), Penn St (5-0/3)    
   Pac 12 (12 teams)P5   
3:00Washington St (4-0/15)P12 (1-0)UCLA (3-1/38)P12 (0-1)UCLA-3.5WAST 83%WAST
6:30Colorado (3-2/39)P12 (0-2)Arizona St (1-4/87)P12 (0-2)COL-5.5COL 69%COL
10:00Oregon St (4-1/26)P12 (1-1)California (3-2/51)P12 (1-1)ORST-9.5ORST 82%ORST
10:30Arizona (3-2/80)P12 (1-1)Southern Cal (5-0/12)P12 (3-0)SCAL-22.0SCAL 91%SCAL
OOC  none    
Idle  Oregon (5-0/6), Stanford (1-4/64), Utah (4-1/28), Washington (5-0/7)    
   SEC (14 teams)P5   
12:00LSU (3-2/45)SEC (2-1)Missouri (5-0/17)SEC (1-0)LSU-6.5MIZZ 74%MIZZ
12:00W Michigan (2-3/103)MAC (1-1)Mississippi St (2-3/106)SEC (0-3)MSST-21.5MSST 57%WMI
3:30Alabama (4-1/19)SEC (2-0)Texas A&M (4-1/24)SEC (2-0)ALA-3.5ALA 57%ALA
4:00Vanderbilt (2-4/72)SEC (0-2)Florida (3-2/42)SEC (1-1)FLA-18.5FLA 72%VAND
7:00Kentucky (5-0/14)SEC (2-0)Georgia (5-0/9)SEC (2-0)GEO-15.0GEO 61%KENT
7:30Arkansas (2-3/84)SEC (0-2)Mississippi (4-1/22)SEC (1-1)MISS-10.5MISS 94%MISS
OOC  none    
Idle  Auburn (3-2/44), South Carolina (2-3/43), Tennessee (4-1/37)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
2:00UTSA (1-3/114)AAC (0-0)Temple (2-3/110)AAC (0-1)UTSA-13.5TEMP 57%TEMP
3:30North Texas (2-2/119)AAC (0-0)Navy (1-3/107)AAC (0-2)NAVY-6.0NTEX 60%NTEX
4:00South Florida (3-2/92)AAC (2-0)UAB (1-4/88)AAC (0-1)SFLA-3.5SFLA 65%SFLA
5:00UCONN (0-5/113)IND (0-0)Rice (3-2/86)AAC (1-1)RICE-9.5RICE 69%RICE
6:00Tulsa (3-2/82)AAC (1-0)FAU (1-3/130)AAC (0-0)FAU-4.0TULS 64%TULS
OOC  none    
Idle  Charlotte (1-4/102), East Carolina (1-4/99), Memphis (4-1/48) SMU (3-2/79), Tulane (4-1/55)    
   C-USA (9 teams)G5   
WED 8:00Jacksonville St (4-1/62)USA (2-0)Middle Tennessee (1-4/97)USA (0-1)MTSU-3.5JAX 83%JAX
WED 9:00FIU (3-2/112)USA (0-2)New Mexico St (2-3/136)USA (0-1)NMST-6.0FIU 61%FIU
THU 7:00Sam Houston (0-4/94)USA (0-1)Liberty (4-0/23)USA (2-0)LIB-18.0LIB>99%LIB
THU 8:00W Kentucky (3-2/90)USA (1-0)LA Tech (3-3/125)USA (2-0)WKY-5.5WKY 59%WKY
OOC  none    
Idle  UTEP (1-5/122)    
   FBS Independents (4 teams)G5 (ND-P5)   
12:00Toledo (4-1/65)MAC (2-0)UMASS (1-5/131)IND (0-0)TOL-19.5TOL 82%TOL
OOC  Army (Boston College-ACC), Notre Dame (Louisville-ACC), UCONN (Rice-AAC)    
Idle  none    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
2:00C Michigan (3-2/95)MAC (1-0)Buffalo (1-4/133)MAC (1-0)CMI-3.0CMI 64%CMI
3:30Ball St (1-4/91)MAC (0-1)E Michigan (2-3/123)MAC (0-1)EMI-2.5EMI 58%EMI
3:30Bowling Green (2-3/77)MAC (0-1)Miami OH (4-1/53)MAC (1-0)MIAO-10.5MIAO 85%MIAO
3:30Kent St (1-4/115)MAC (0-1)Ohio (4-1/54)MAC (1-0)OHIO-26.0OHIO 92%OHIO
3:30N Illinois (1-4/132)MAC (0-1)Akron (1-4/134)MAC (0-1)NILL-5.0NILL 56%AKR
OOC  Toledo (UMASS-IND), W Michigan (Mississippi St-SEC)    
Idle  none    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
8:00Fresno St (5-0/21)MWC (1-0)Wyoming (4-1/46)MWC (1-0)FRST-5.5FRST 89%FRST
8:00Colorado St (2-2/116)MWC (0-0)Utah St (2-3/100)MWC (0-1)COST-1.5COST 58%COST
8:00San Jose St (1-4/76)MWC (0-1)Boise St (2-3/96)MWC (1-0)BOST-9.5BOST 59%SJST
OOC  none    
Idle  Air Force (5-0/20), Hawaii (2-4/118), Nevada (0-5/59), New Mexico (2-3/126), San Diego St (2-4/104), UNLV (4-1/61)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
3:30Texas St (4-1/63)SUN (1-0)Louisiana (3-2/117)SUN (0-1)LAU-1.0TXST 72%TXST
4:00Arkansas St (3-2/101)SUN (1-0)Troy (3-2/75)SUN (1-1)TROY-17.0TROY 57%ARST
7:00South Alabama (2-3/105)SUN (0-1)ULM (2-2/109)SUN (0-1)SALA-12.0ULM 57%ULM
7:00Old Dominion (2-3/128)SUN (1-1)Southern Miss (1-4/108)SUN (0-2)SMIS-1.5OD 57%OD
OOC  Marshall (NC St-ACC)    
Idle  App St (3-2/85), Coastal Carolina (2-3/98), Ga Southern (4-1/60), Georgia St (4-1/66), James Madison (5-0/29)    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
7:00Montana (4-1/151)SKY (1-1)UC Davis (3-2/164)SKY (1-1)NLMONT 57%NL
8:00Idaho (4-1/139)SKY (2-0)Cal Poly (2-3/232)SKY (1-1)NLIDA 61%NL
8:00N Arizona (1-4/228)SKY (1-1)Weber St (3-2/160)SKY (1-1)NLWEB 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  E Washington (2-3/190), Idaho St (1-4/249), Montana St (4-1/138), N Colorado (2-3/214), Portland St (2-3/172), Sacramento St (4-1/146)    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (10 teams)FCS   
2:00Tennessee Tech (1-3/244)BSOV (0-0)Lindenwood (2-3/241)BSOV (0-1)NLLIN 56%NL
3:00Tennessee Martin (4-1/137)BSOV (1-0)E Illinois (4-1/147)BSOV (0-0)NLTMAR 55%NL
3:00Tennessee St (2-2/177)BSOV (1-1)Kennesaw St (1-4/257)FCSNLTNST 56%NL
4:00Robert Morris (2-3/195)BSOV (0-0)Gardner Webb (1-3/222)BSOV (0-1)NLGW 55%NL
5:00SEMO (1-3/219)BSOV (1-0)C Arkansas (3-2/167)UAC (2-0)NLCARK 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Bryant (2-3/197), Charleston (2-3/199)    
   Colonial (15 teams)FCS   
12:00Rhode Island (3-2/171)CAA (2-1)Brown (2-1/165)IVY (0-1)NLBRO 56%NL
1:00Stony Brook (0-5/221)CAA (0-4)Morgan St (1-4/256)MEAC (0-0)NLMORG 55%NL
2:00NC Central (4-1/149)MEAC (0-0)Elon (3-2/170)CAA (3-0)NLNCC 58%NL
2:00Campbell (2-3/220)CAA (1-2)Hampton (3-1/157)CAA (1-0)NLHAMP 59%NL
3:00Duquesne (2-2/182)NEC (1-0)Delaware (3-1/153)CAA (2-0)NLDEL 59%NL
3:30Maine (1-4/230)CAA (1-2)Richmond (2-3/236)CAA (1-1)NLRICH 56%NL
4:00Villanova (3-2/174)CAA (1-1)North Carolina A&T (1-3/243)CAA (0-1)NLVILL 57%NL
4:00Albany (3-2/159)CAA (1-0)Towson (2-3/191)CAA (1-1)NLALB 58%NL
OOC  William & Mary (Virginia-ACC)    
Idle  Monmouth (2-3/233), New Hampshire (2-3/211)    
   FCS Independent (1 team)FCS   
OOC  Kennesaw St (Tennessee St-BSOV)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
FRI 7:00Cornell (2-1/185)IVY (1-0)Harvard (3-0/135)IVY (1-0)NLHARV 63%NL
12:30Marist (2-2/210)PFL (2-1)Columbia (1-2/225)IVY (0-1)NLMAR 56%NL
1:00Georgetown (3-2/180)PAT (1-0)Penn (2-1/166)IVY (0-1)NLPENN 56%NL
1:00Lafayette (4-1/141)PAT (1-0)Princeton (2-1/173)IVY (1-0)NLLAF 58%NL
1:30Yale (1-2/250)IVY (0-1)Dartmouth (2-1/179)IVY (1-0)NLDART 58%NL
OOC  Brown (Rhode Island-CAA)    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
1:00Delaware St (1-4/227)MEAC (0-0)C Connecticut (1-3/259)NEC (0-1)NLCCON 55%NL
2:00Lynchburg (N/A)NASouth Carolina St (1-3/248)MEAC (0-0)NLNLNL
OOC  Howard (Northwestern-B10), Morgan St (Stony Brook-CAA), NC Central (Elon-CAA)    
Idle  Norfolk St (2-3/251)    
   Missouri Valley (12 teams)FCS   
2:00W Illinois (0-4/245)MVC (0-1)North Dakota (2-2/194)MVC (0-1)NLNDAK 59%NL
3:00North Dakota St (3-1/154)MVC (0-1)Missouri St (1-3/189)MVC (0-1)NLNDST 60%NL
3:00Murray St (2-2/184)MVC (1-0)South Dakota (3-1/142)MVC (1-0)NLSDAK 59%NL
6:00S Illinois (4-0/129)MVC (1-0)Youngstown St (2-2/186)MVC (0-1)NLSILL 64%NL
7:00South Dakota St (4-0/127)MVC (1-0)Illinois St (3-1/148)MVC (1-0)NLSDKS 61%NL
7:00N Iowa (2-2/200)MVC (1-0)Indiana St (0-4/234)MVC (0-1)NLNIA 57%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Sacred Heart (1-4/258)NEC (1-2)Long Island (0-4/204)NEC (0-1)NLLIU 55%NL
1:00Stonehill (2-3/239)NEC (1-1)Merrimack (2-3/246)NEC (1-1)NLMERR 55%NL
OOC  C Connecticut (Delaware St-MEAC), Duquesne (Delaware-CAA)    
Idle  St Francis (1-4/254), Wagner (2-3/205)    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
1:00Holy Cross (3-2/163)PAT (1-0)Bucknell (1-3/192)PAT (0-1)NLHC 58%NL
1:00Lehigh (1-4/252)PAT (0-0)Fordham (3-2/168)PAT (0-1)NLFORD 59%NL
OOC  Georgetown (Penn-IVY), Lafayette (Princeton-IVY)    
Idle  none    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
1:00Dayton (2-3/242)PFL (0-2)Morehead St (1-3/255)PFL (0-2)NLDAY 52%NL
1:00Stetson (2-3/218)PFL (0-2)Presbyterian (2-2/206)PFL (0-1)NLPC 56%NL
1:00Butler (4-1/145)PFL (2-0)St Thomas (3-2/187)PFL (2-0)NLBUT 59%NL
2:00Valparaiso (1-3/261)PFL (0-1)Drake (1-3/247)PFL (1-0)NLDRAK 55%NL
OOC  Marist (Columbia-IVY)    
Idle  Davidson (3-2/183), San Diego (1-4/260)    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:30Samford (2-3/207)SoCon (1-2)Wofford (0-5/238)SoCon (0-2)NlSAM 56%NL
2:00Citadel (0-5/216)SoCon (0-2)Furman (3-1/156)SoCon (1-0)NLFUR 62%NL
3:30Mercer (3-2/161)SoCon (1-1)E Tennessee St (1-3/202)SoCon (0-1)NLMERC 58%NL
4:00W Carolina (4-1/150)SoCon (2-0)Chattanooga (4-1/144)SoCon (3-0)NLCHAT 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  VMI (2-3/213)    
   Southland (8 teams)FCS   
4:00Houston Christian (2-3/212)SLAN (1-1)Nicholls (1-3/193)SLAN (1-0)NLHOCH 55%NL
4:00Northwestern St (0-4/196)SLAN (0-0)Lamar (2-3/209)SLAN (1-0)NLLAM 56%NL
5:00SELA (0-5/226)SLAN (0-1)Incarnate Word (3-1/155)SLAN (0-0)NLIW 61%NL
8:00McNeese (0-5/203)SLAN (0-1)Commerce (0-4/229)SLAN (0-0)NLCOMM 55%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Bethune Cookman (1-3/176)SWAC (0-1)Alabama St (1-3/240)SWAC (1-2)NLBETH 63%NL
3:30Grambling St (3-2/169)SWAC (2-0)Alcorn St (2-3/253)SWAC (1-1)NLGRAM 57%NL
4:00Jackson St (3-2/162) – NSWAC (2-1)Alabama A&M (3-2/178) – NSWAC (1-1)NLJACK 55%NL
7:00Florida A&M (4-1/143)SWAC (3-0)Southern (2-2/208)SWAC (2-2)NLFLAM 60%NL
7:00Mississippi Valley (0-4/217)SWAC (0-1)Prairie View (2-3/224)SWAC (2-1)NLPV 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Ark Pine Bluff (1-4/237), Texas Southern (1-4/201)    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
7:00S Utah (1-4/215)UAC (0-1)Tarleton (4-1/152)UAC (1-0)NLTARL 62%NL
9:00Steph F Austin (3-2/175)UAC (0-1)Utah Tech (1-4/231)UAC (0-0)NLSFA 58%NL
OOC  C Arkansas (SEMO-BSOV)    
Idle  Abilene Christian (2-3/223), Austin Peay (3-2/158), E Kentucky (2-3/181), N Alabama (2-4/235)