Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 723 or a midweek edition. Last night, Conference USA did not fail us with the Delaware Blue Hens (4-4/101) taking down the W Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-5/120) by a score of 35-21. While Vegas had WKY-1.5, the GCR rightly picked Delaware who has shown moments of brilliance on offense. Check out the stats for that game: in particular 414 passing yards from the DEL QB on 32/38 passing. Our second game was between two teams having difficult seasons with Missouri St (3-5/128) defending their home field against Sam Houston (1-7/170) 23-3 – well beyond not only the 5.5 points Vegas gave them but the 10.5 the GCR calculated. Finally, a good start to the week, prediction wise, at 2-0 straight up and against the spread.
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Tonight, we have the last midweek games for C-USA this season. They began at the beginning of October (along with a couple of Sun Belt Tuesday games) to play with no football competition, taking the idea from the MAC who will take over next week for the remainder of November. Not only does this allow these teams to be seen on national television, but it also gives us football every day for about 7 weeks (college and pro). Who could argue with that?
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Our first game, kicking off at 7:00 (all times Eastern) features the disappointing Kennesaw St (1-6/162), 10th worst in the Group of 6 invading Mid Tenn (4-3/99). When KNST has the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 82 (197th out of 266 teams) which means that they score 8.2 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a MTSU Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 88 (193rd) which means they allow 10.0 points for every 8.8 their opponents normally score. That is very close to a wash. When the Blue Raiders are on offense, the field an 88 ORE (171st) while the Owls DER is a respectable 112 (104th). A slight advantage to Kennesaw St. While Vegas thinks KNST (-1.5) can win on the road, the GCR has MTSU taking this one by double digits (20+). That 3-touchdown difference between Vegas and the GCR makes us nervous. Certainly, it is worth tuning in to CBS Sports whether to vindicate our prediction or imagine us hiding under the covers (it is close to Halloween after all) to avoid embarrassment over a stupid prediction.
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The second game, with an 8:00 kickoff, Jax St (5-2/73), but 3-0 in conference which ties them with Liberty (6-1/24), heads from Alabama to the Land of Enchantment to take on New Mexico St (3-2/124), who is 2-1 in conference. If we assume Liberty continues to win (not wise in this season of upsets), this game could be for the second spot in the championship game. Jax St has an above average OER of 123 (71st) which is an edge over the Aggies’ DER of 95 (167th). A significant advantage for the Gamecocks. When NMST is driving, they have an OER of 97 (148th) against a Jax St DER of 103 (138th) which is somewhere between a wash and a slight advantage for JXST. Vegas has the Gamecocks-3.5 and the GCR agrees Jax St to win and cover – somewhere between 9.0 and 13.0 points. This game airs on ESPN2.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 28th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Kennesaw St (1-6/162) at Mid Tenn (4-3/99) | USA | KNST -1.5 | MTSU | MTSU | CBS Sports |
| 8:00 | Jax St (5-2/73) at New Mexico St (3-4/124) | USA | JXST -3.5 | JXST | JXST | ESPN2 |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for two more Group of 6 matchups along with a MEAC game. Until then, thank you for taking the time to read our content, even more so for taking the time to comment or make suggestions for improvement, and especially for sharing with others to help us grow, JoJo and G
