Happy Friday, college football fans and welcome back after another day of close games (aargh). Minnesota (-10.0) looked like they would cover Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl until they give up a TD with 2:30 to go creating a 28-20 final. Vegas 0-1, GCR 1-0, Cover 0-1. The Cheez-It Bowl was close throughout and very exciting with big plays on both sides all game long. Florida St (-10.0) was behind Oklahoma most of the game but drilled a late field goal to win 35-32. Vegas 0-2, GCR 2-0, Cover 0-2. Texas (-3.0) played a difficult schedule and came up short in a lot of close games, so the Alamo Bowl against Washington was fitting. Washington won wire-to-wire despite giving up 10 points late in the fourth and looked better prepared. Both teams played well, but Washington should be highly ranked in the silly pre-season poll next season. The Huskies held on 27-20 keeping the GCR Cover from being shut out. Vegas 0-3, GCR, 3-0, Cover 1-2. Here’s the current list of winners/losers.
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina | Cincinnati, SMU, UCF | Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida St | UNC, Syracuse | NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson |
| Big 12 (8) | Texas Tech | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas | Kansas St, TCU |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota | Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | |
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | — |
| Indies (5) | BYU, New Mexico St | UCONN, Liberty | Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo | Miami OH, Bowling Green | Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St, San Diego St, Utah St | Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St, Oregon, Washington | Washington St | UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Arkansas | Florida, Missouri, Mississippi | South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina | — |
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And the detail behind those winners/losers:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-2 (.000) | 3-1 (.750) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1-1 (.667) | 2-2 (.500 | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 4-2 (.667) | 5-4 (.554) | 2-2 (.500) | 2-0 (1.000) | 4-0 (1.000) | 0-2 (000) | 3-1 (.750) | 3-0 (1.000) | 3-1 (.750) |
| Big 12 (8) | 1-5 (.167) | 2-6 (.250) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-1 (000) | 0-2 (000) | 1-3 (.250) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) |
| Big Ten (9) | 2-0 (1.000) | 6-3 (.667) | 2-0 (1.000) | — | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-1 (.500) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) |
| C-USA (6) | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-3 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Indies (5) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 3-2 (.600) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-2 (.600) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) |
| MWC (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-3 (.250) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-3 (.2503) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-2 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 3-1 (.750) | 5-2 (.714) | 3-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 3-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 1-3 (.250) | 5-6 (.455) | 1-3 (.250) | — | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (000) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (000) |
| Sun (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-4 (.429) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.500) | 2-2 (.667) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-2-1 (.333) |
| Total | 28 | 41 | 11-11 (.500) | 17-17 (.500) | 18-10 (.643) | 10-18 (.357) | 10-17-1 (.370) | 19-9 (.679) | 14-13-1 (.519) |
| Power 5 (45) | 11-11 (.500) | 24-21 (.533) | 9-9 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 9-3 (.750) | 2-8 (.200) | 5-7 (.417) | 8-2 (.800) | 5-5 (.500) |
| Group of 5 (37) | 17-17 (.500) | 17-20 (.459) | 2-2 (.500) | 15-15 (.500) | 9-7 (.563) | 8-10 (.444) | 5-10-1 (.333) | 11-7 (.611) | 9-8-1 (.529) |
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And that brings us to today which has the first New Year’s Six Bowl to close out a 5-game set. We also have the final Group of 5/Group of 5 bowl leaving just Tulane as the G5 NY6 representative still remaining. Let’s look at each.
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With a noon (all times Eastern) kickoff, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl starts the day off when Maryland (7-5/42) 4th in the Big Ten East takes on NC St (8-4/23) 3rd in the ACC Atlantic in Charlotte. I have no idea if there will be another mayonnaise bath at the end of the game, but it’s worth watching. When Maryland is on offense, they bring an OER of 105, good for 109th out of 261, which means they score 10.5 for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. The Wolfpack will counter with an elite DER of 146 (23rd) which means they only give up 10 points for every 14.6 their opponents normally score. NC St’s offense is not as powerful with an OER of 97 (145th), but the Terrapin DER is also low at 91 (179th). Vegas likes NCST in a close one -1.0, and the GCR agrees 62.6% and to cover.
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At 2:00, we travel to the beautiful desert of El Paso for the aptly named Sun Bowl to see Pittsburgh (8-4/33) 3rd in the ACC Coastal fight against UCLA (9-3/18) 6th in the Pac 12. Both teams had early hope for a conference title but fell short in the second half of the season and a bowl win would jump start next season. This will be a high-scoring affair as both teams are better at offense than defense. When Pittsburgh is under center, an OER of 121 (56th) will push against a Bruin DER of 103 (122nd). On the flip side, UCLA has an elite OER of 137 (20th) against a Panther DER of 116 (71st). Vegas sees UCLA -8.0 and the GCR is in full agreement, 65.5% and to cover.
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Back east to Jacksonville we go at 3:30 to see independent Notre Dame (8-4/22) face upstart South Carolina (8-4/27) 3rd in the SEC East. Notre Dame started 0-2 before getting things together while the Gamecocks led off the season 1-2 before making a run. Both teams are in the top 5 in special teams and any play could become a scoring play. When the Irish have the ball, they bring an OER of 119 (65th) versus a South Carolina DER of 107 (101st). The offenses are similar with a Gamecock OER of 119 (63rd) but the Notre Dame defense is a little stronger with a DER of 134 (34th). This one should be close. Vegas has ND -3.5 and the GCR concurs 55.7% and to cover.
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Back to the west to Tucson and the Arizona Bowl, at 4:30, featuring 2 very good Group of 5 teams: Ohio (9-4/64) winner of the MAC East and Wyoming (7-5/87) 3rd in the MWC Moutain. When the Bobcats are on the prowl, they have an OER of 118 (72nd) and will be challenged by a Wyoming DER of 104 (119th). When the Cowboys are driving, they bring an OER of 82 (193rd) vs an Ohio DER of 97 (147th). Vegas likes Ohio -2.5 and the GCR agrees 61.9% and to cover.
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We head to Miami at 8:00 to close out our much-traveled day to see the Orange Bowl featuring two very orange teams. Tennessee (10-2/5) 2nd in the SEC East will take on Clemson (11-2) champions of the ACC. Both of these teams were very close to being part of the playoff, but late losses (both to South Carolina) killed that opportunity, but a premier bowl is appropriate for both teams. These are two elite teams, and the game should be very exciting. When Tennessee has the ball, they bring the top offense in the country with an OER of 186 (1st) against an elite Tiger defense with a DER of 142 (25th). When Clemson is trying to score, an elite OER of 135 (21st) faces a very good Tennessee DER of 126 (51st). Yards and points will come in this game, but I see the occasional big play making the difference. So far, the GCR has agreed with Vegas in both victor and to cover, but not in this one. Vegas has Clemson -6.0 (up from -4.5 last night) and that is a little much. The GCR agrees Clemson will win 57.4% but look for Tennessee to cover.
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That’s it for today. The summary is below. Have a great day traveling the country and watching some really good football. Tomorrow is semi-final day and I look forward to predicting those games. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
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| Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| 12:00 | December 30, 2022 | Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Charlotte | |||
| Maryland (7-5/42) | Big Ten (4-5) | NC St (8-4/23) | ACC (4-4) | NCST -1.0 | NCST 62.6% | NCST |
| 2:00 | Sun Bowl | El Paso | ||||
| Pittsburgh (8-4/33) | ACC (5-3) | UCLA (9-3/18) | Pac 12 (6-3) | UCLA -8.0 | UCLA 65.5% | UCLA |
| 3:30 | Gator Bowl | Jacksonville | ||||
| Notre Dame (8-4/22) | IND (1-0) | South Carolina (8-4/27) | SEC (4-4) | ND -3.5 | ND 55.7% | ND |
| 4:30 | Arizona Bowl | Tucson | ||||
| Ohio (9-4/64) | MAC (7-2) | Wyoming (7-5/87) | MWC (5-3) | OHIO -2.5 | OHIO 61.9% | OHIO |
| 8:00 | Orange Bowl | Miami | ||||
| Tennessee (10-2/5) | SEC (6-2) | Clemson (11-2/6) | ACC (9-0) | CLEM -6.0 | CLEM 57.4% | TENN |
