All I can say is “wow!”, oh great and wonderful college football fans. What a set of games yesterday! In the Military Bowl, UCF gave Duke everything they could handle before the Blue Devils finally put the last nail in the coffin late in the 4th to take the game 30-13. Vegas 1-0, GCR 1-0, Cover 1-0. Then came the Liberty Bowl. In the first half, Arkansas could do no wrong going up 24-7 after 1 and 31-13 at the break. Arkansas put 7 more on the board (38-13) and held that 25-point lead until the Jayhawks scored with 3:15 in the 3rd. Going to the 4th with an 18-point deficit, Kansas nailed a field goal fairly early (14:11) and then the teams stalled. 15-point lead and 4:00 minutes to go, the Razorbacks get the ball back on downs, get a first down with just over 3 minutes to go (Kansas had no timeouts left) and ran a trick play resulting in a fumble. Kansas now had the ball in Arkansas territory and drove for a quick score making it 38-30. The onside kick was a study in execution. For the Razorbacks, the front line drove forward to block while the second line stood still waiting for the ball – poor execution. For the Jayhawks, players rushed to the ball and made the recovery – perfect execution. With 1:05 left in the game, they drove and made the 2-point conversion. Arkansas, to their credit, did get to the Jayhawk 18 as time expired as the game moved to OT. Penalties left and right, injuries left and right, and in the final OT, Arkansas pulled it out 55-53 as a pass flew over the head of the Jayhawk receiver. Vegas 1-1, GCR 2-0, Cover 1-1. Not to be outdone, the Holiday Bowl, which Oregon entered as a 13-point favorite, was close throughout. The only double-digit lead came for UNC when a 4th quarter field goal was true with 9:21 to go. The Ducks answered less than 3 minutes later to bring the score to 24-21, UNC. The Tar Heels held the ball over 4 minutes and took the score to 27-21 with a 44-yard field goal with just 2:34 to go. Oregon made a brilliant drive culminating in a 6-yard reception to tie the score. The point after doinked off the left upright and ricocheted perfectly, ultimately, to win the game. Ducks 28-27. Vegas 1-2, GCR, 3-0, Cover 2-1. We closed out the night with a blowout when the Texas Bowl ended with Texas Tech 42-25 win over Mississippi after the Red Raiders drove a 26-7 halftime lead and held on despite a late push from the Rebels, put to bed with a Texas Tech kickoff return after Mississippi got within 10 (35-25) with just over 3 minutes to go. Congrats to the Red Raiders for a triple sweep: Vegas 1-3, GCR 3-1, Cover 2-2.
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Here is the current list of winners/losers:
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina | Cincinnati, SMU, UCF | Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke | UNC | Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson |
| Big 12 (8) | Texas Tech | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas | Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin | Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | |
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | — |
| Indies (5) | BYU, New Mexico St | UCONN, Liberty | Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo | Miami OH, Bowling Green | Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St, San Diego St, Utah St | Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St, Oregon | Washington St | Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Arkansas | Florida, Missouri, Mississippi | South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina | — |
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And the detail behind those winners and losers. Every conference has at least one victory and every conference who has played at least 2 games has at least one loss.
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-2 (.000) | 3-1 (.750) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1-1 (.667) | 2-2 (.500 | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 3-1 (.750) | 5-4 (.554) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-0 (1.000) | 3-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 3-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 3-0 (1.000) |
| Big 12 (8) | 1-3 (.250) | 2-6 (.250) | 1-2 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-2 (.333) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) |
| Big Ten (9) | 1-0 (1.000) | 6-3 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | — | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-3 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Indies (5) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 3-2 (.600) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-2 (.600) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) |
| MWC (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-3 (.250) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-3 (.2503) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-2 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 2-1 (.667) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 1-3 (.250) | 5-6 (.455) | 1-3 (.250) | — | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (000) | 0-2 (000) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (000) |
| Sun (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-4 (.429) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.500) | 2-2 (.667) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-2-1 (.333) |
| Total | 25 | 41 | 8-8 (.500) | 17-17 (.500) | 16-9 (.640) | 9-16 (.360) | 10-14-1 (.417) | 16-9 (.640) | 13-11-1 (.542) |
| Power 5 (45) | 8-8 (.500) | 24-21 (.533) | 6-6 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 7-2 (.778) | 1-6 (.143) | 5-4 (.556) | 5-2 (.714) | 4-3 (.571) |
| Group of 5 (37) | 17-17 (.500) | 17-20 (.459) | 2-2 (.500) | 15-15 (.500) | 9-7 (.563) | 8-10 (.444) | 5-10-1 (.333) | 11-7 (.611) | 9-8-1 (.529) |
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Today is another great bowl day with 3 games on the docket. First, with a 2:00 (all times Eastern) kickoff, the Pinstripe Bowl from The Bronx features two cold-weather teams when Syracuse (7-5/43) 5th in the ACC Atlantic takes on Minnesota (8-4/33) who was 2nd in the Big Ten West. When the Orange have the ball, they bring an OER of 114, good for 80th out of 261), which means they score 11.4 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They will face an elite Minnesota defense sporting a DER of 166 (11th). That means the Golden Gophers allow 10 points for every 16.6 points their opponents normally score. When the Gophers drive the ball, they bring an OER of 109 (98th) against a Syracuse DER of 116 (71st). I expect a low-scoring game for this (the over/under is just 44.0). Vegas likes Minnesota to win -10.0 and the GCR agrees 66.6% and to cover.
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The middle game, starting at 5:30, pits a disappointing Oklahoma (6-6/59), 6th in the Big 12, and Florida St (9-3/14), 2nd in the ACC Atlantic, in the Cheez-It Bowl out of Orlando. This game is one of the bigger mismatches of the bowl season and FSU should do really well on both sides of the ball. They face an Oklahoma team with a decent OER of 122 (51st) but have a quality DER of 137 (30th). When the Seminoles are under center, they bring an elite OER of 146 (11th) and face an average Sooner DER of 104 (120th). Vegas likes FSU -10.0 and the GCR is in full agreement 82.3% and to cover.
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Tonight’s game, from San Antonio, is the Alamo Bowl, with a 9:00 kickoff. In the most contested game of the day, Texas (8-4/20), 3rd in the Big 12, takes on Washington (10-2/12), 2nd in the Pac 12. This GCR top 20 matchup features two elite offenses with Texas having an OER of 131 (30th) vs a Huskie DER of 105 (111th), and Washington bringing a top 25 OER of 134 (24th) vs an elite Texas DER of 153 (17th). Despite that, the GCR calculates Washington to win 77.0% and to cover against Vegas TEX -3.0.
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a 5-game day. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
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| Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| 2:00 | December 29, 2022 | Pinstripe Bowl | The Bronx | |||
| Syracuse (7-5/43) | ACC (4-4) | Minnesota (8-4/33) | Big Ten (5-4) | MINN -10.0 | MINN 66.6% | MINN |
| 5:30 | Cheez-It Bowl | Orlando | ||||
| Oklahoma (6-6/59) | B12 (3-6) | Florida St (9-3/14) | ACC (5-3) | FSU -10.0 | FSU 82.3% | FSU |
| 9:00 | Alamo Bowl | San Antonio | ||||
| Texas (8-4/20) | B12 (6-3) | Washington (10-2/12) | Pac 12 (7-2) | TEX -3.0 | WASH 77.0% | WASH |
