Welcome to our Christmas Eve addition of the GCR. I hope everyone is staying warm and comfortable today. Yesterday we had a couple of really exciting games. First, in the Independence Bowl, Houston trailed Louisiana 16-6 at the half and my wife said, “I don’t think the GCR got this one right,” but in went on a run in the second to finish 23-16, thus giving the GCR a straight up victory and an against the spread push (the final line was HOU -6.5, but it was HOU -7.0 when I published). Just a note, in the tables below, any push will show as a tie (W-L-T) as a format but have no impact on the percentage correct. Then Wake Forest put Missouri away in the Gasparilla Bowl 27-17 as Sam Hartman became the all-time leading TD passer in the ACC. Sadly, neither bowl had much in the way of attendance. So much so, that I could hear the players calls during the Wake/Mizzou game. Maybe that will get better as the games continue. At any rate, here is the updated winners/losers table:
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston | Cincinnati, SMU | Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest | Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor | Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | ||
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | Middle Tennessee |
| Indies (5) | BYU | UCONN, Liberty | New Mexico St, Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo | Miami OH | Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St | San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida, Missouri | Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana | Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina |
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And the details behind those wins and losses:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 1-2 (.333) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1-1 (.000) | 1-2 (.333) | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 2-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-1 (000) | 2-6 (.250) | 0-0 | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-0 | 0-1 (000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten (9) | 0-0 | 6-3 (.667) | 0-0 | — | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 2-3 (.400) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-3 (.400) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-2 (.667) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| Indies (5) | 1-2 (.333) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 2-1 (.667) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) |
| MWC (7) | 3-1 (.750) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-0 (1.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-2 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-2 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-2 (000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-2 (.600) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-2 (.600) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) | 1-1-1 (.500) |
| Total | 15 | 41-41 | 3-4 (.429) | 12-11 (.522) | 10-5 (.667) | 5-10 (.333) | 6-8-1 (.429) | 11-4 (.733) | 9-5-1 (.643) |
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That brings us to today’s game, the Hawai’i Bowl in Honolulu kicking off at 8:00 Eastern with Conference USA’s Middle Tennessee (7-5/101) facing San Diego St (7-5/83) of the Mountain West. This is C-USA’s last bowl game this year and the Blue Raiders will try to get the conference to .500 but will be facing a difficult opponent in the Aztecs. MTSU brings an OER of 103, good for 117th out of 261, meaning that they score 10.3 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow, but they will be facing a strong Aztec DER of 128 (43rd), meaning they give up 10 points for every 12.8 points their opponents normally score. Points should be hard to come by for the Blue Raiders. When SDST has the ball, they bring in a below average OER of 92 (191st) but will face a near-average Raider DER of 95 (156th). I’m not expecting a high-scoring game tonight, but I am expecting a close one. Vegas has San Diego St -6.5 and the GCR agrees that SDST will win 55.2%, but that Middle Tennessee will cover. See the summary below.
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That’s it for today. Thank you for reading and sharing, G
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| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 24, 2022 | Hawaii Bowl | Honolulu | |||||
| 8:00 | Middle Tennessee (7-5/101) | C-USA (4-4) | San Diego St (7-5/83) | MWC (5-3) | SDST -6.5 | SDST 55.2% | MTSU |
