Howdy and yeehaw college football fans. Our last bowl prior to the championship games is coming in tonight. But first a quick (very quick recap) of our New Year’s games. 3 of the 5 games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
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In an Outback blowout, Arkansas 9-4 (26) took care of Penn St 7-6 (39), 24-10 after trailing 10-7 at the half. A 17-point explosion in the 3rd and a ball-control run game (361 yards on the ground and 35+ minutes) put the nail in the coffin for the Nittany Lions.
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An age-old question in the football world is what do you do with a 14-point halftime lead? Whatever it is, don’t follow Notre Dame’s 11-2 (8) lead by allowing your Fiesta Bowl opponent Oklahoma St 12-2 (4) to score 23 straight. A late touchdown wasn’t enough for the Irish who fell 37-35. D’oh!
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In the Citrus Bowl, Kentucky 10-3 (19) snatched a comeback victory away from Iowa 10-4 (24) – and consequently tied the GCR predictions with Vegas – with a TD with 1:48 remaining after blowing a 13-3 halftime lead. I’m pretty sure all of these head coaches needed a spa treatment or something after this day.
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If you like defensive football, you hated the Rose Bowl. Ohio St 11-2 (7) spoiled Utah’s 10-4 (22) appearance in, you guessed it, comeback fashion 48-45 on a near last second FG after being down 35-21 at the half. I’ve said the Buckeyes have an offense that’s crazy good and a mediocre defense, but this was insane.
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And the finale, a defensive struggle between Baylor 12-2 (5) and Mississippi 10-3 (18). Yes, you read that right. Until 11:14 to go in the 4th, the score was 7-7. In fact, the only first half score was a 96-yard pick six by Baylor. They had 3 INTs and 9 (yes, nine) sacks which led to the win.
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Both Vegas and the GCR are 25-14 in picking the winners. Here are the current standings with just the Texas Bowl and the Championship to go:
| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | Winning Pct | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 5-1 | .833 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| American | 4 | -3 | 3-1 | .750 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | .750 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 4-2 | .714 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 6-4 | .600 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-2 | .500 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| SEC | 14 | +1 | 5-6 | .455 | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | .375 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| MAC | 8 | -1 | 3-5 | .375 | 1-0 | 2-5 |
| ACC | 6 | -4 | 2-4 | .333 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-5 | .000 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
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And now, the main event, the one we’ve all been waiting for: the Texas Bowl out of Houston. We have the classic matchup of an incredibly depleted (39 scholarship players none of which play QB) LSU 6-6 (50) of the SEC and Kansas St 7-5 (43) of the Big 12. This has all the makings a game for the ages or rather a game that few on the east coast will stay up to midnight to watch (9:00 all times Eastern start). When LSU has the ball, we actually have no idea what they will do, but over the season they managed an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 112 (they score 11.2 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow) good for 81st in the nation and will try to move the ball against a Wildcat DER (Defensive) 142 (they give up 10 points for every 14.2 their opponents normally score) good for 28th. When State has the ball, their OER is just 96 (139th) and will battle a Tiger DER (at least during the season) of 122 (60th). Even at full strength (the GCR does not make adjustments for absences or coaching changes) the GCR calculates Kansas St to win 60.2% which lines up well with Vegas: KSST -7.5.
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That’s it for today. We’ll be back for the FCS championship game scheduled for January 8 at 12:00. Here are all the games with all the updates. Thanks for reading, G.
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