Good morning (or afternoon for you late night partiers) and welcome to the first 2022 edition of the GCR Blog. The formulas that make up the data for this post began in 2012 and have evolved (and continue to evolve) into what we have today. My first blog as on August 31, 2019, and this is post #191. I’m already thinking about adjustments for next year. If there are improvements you’d like to see, send a comment. I’m always looking for ways to improve.
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But on with the games. Yesterday was a beautiful day for watching football in good old Atlanta (rain and fog) and we had some good ones to watch. First, in the “let’s panic and create a mismatch” bowl aka the Gator Bowl we saw Wake Forest 11-3 (14) equaling their best record (2006) by destroying outmatched Rutgers 5-8 (81), 38-10. This will be the 5th season that Wake will be in the top 25 final poll and likely will best their previous high of 18 (also 2006). Congratulation Wake Forest!!
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Another late matchup caused by Covid that, on paper if you don’t follow the Group of 5 closely, looked like another yawner, we saw C Michigan 9-4 (60) take a 21-0 halftime lead and then hold on to beat the Pac-12’s Washington St 7-5 (65), 24-21 in the Sun Bowl. This marked the 6th time in this bowl season that a Group of 5 school played a Power 5 school and the 6th consecutive win (Utah St beat Oregon St, Army beat Missouri, UCF beat Florida, Houston beat Auburn, Air Force beat Louisville). The Chippewas looked good with a lot of backfield motion that seemed to put the Cougar defense off balance most of the game. State got within 3 with 3:13 to go in the game, forced a punt, but couldn’t make the line to gain (by inches) and the game was over with kneel downs.
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In the first semifinal, both offenses gained yards early, but the Alabama defense stood up as the Tide 13-1 (1) crushed Cincinnati’s 13-1 (5) perfect season 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl. Once the Elephants figured out the quick pass play, the Bearcats had trouble getting things working (2-12 on 3rd down conversions and only 218 total yards). Alabama gained yards in bunches and ball control gaining 301 on the ground led by Brian Robinson’s 198. With 482 yards, one would expect more than 27, but Cincinnati held them to field goal attempts 3 times and had an interception deep in their zone. The Tide now have a date in the National Championship game, but who is the opponent?
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That question was answered quickly as Georgia 13-1 (2) jumped to a 17-0 first quarter and 27-3 halftime lead over discombobulated Michigan 12-2 (3) to win 34-11 in the Orange Bowl. Three turnovers by Michigan led to the blowout as well as going 0-3 on 4th down conversions. UGA’s 518 yards of offense while holding the Wolverines to just 325 reminds us why the Bulldogs were number 1 most of the season. That brings an all-SEC championship game for the second time in 5 years (same teams) and the 7th time (consecutive) in 8 playoffs that at least one SEC team is playing for the Natty – and it guarantees a 5th SEC championship team during those 7 years. I suspect this will cause expansion of the playoffs much faster than some would like (I’m for a 16-team set playing weekly until a 2-week break for the Natty, but that’s just me). The GCR missed this one and is now just a single game ahead of Vegas.
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Here are the current records sorted by winning percentage. The numbers reflect the Natty now as well. Note: the Mountain West is finished their bowl season and have clinched the best record. Also done for the year are the American, Sun Belt, C-USA, MAC, and ACC. The Pac-12 have clinched the worst bowl record even if Utah beats Ohio St today.
| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | Winning Pct | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 5-1 | .833 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| American | 4 | -3 | 3-1 | .750 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | .750 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 5-2 | .714 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-1 | .667 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 2-2 | .500 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | .375 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| MAC | 8 | -1 | 3-5 | .375 | 1-0 | 2-5 |
| SEC | 14 | +1 | 3-5 | .375 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| ACC | 6 | -4 | 2-4 | .333 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-4 | .000 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
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Today we have five games to celebrate the new year beginning with the Outback Bowl (noon kickoff – all times Eastern) out of Tampa with Arkansas 8-4 (24) of the SEC contesting Penn St 7-5 (30) of the Big Ten. When the Razorbacks are on offense, their OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) is 121 (60th in the nation) which means they score 12.1 points for every 10 their opponents normally allow and will face a stingy Nittany Lion DER (Defensive) of 165 (16th). When State has the ball, they bring a OER of 114 (79th) and will face a piggish DER of 124 (52). Points may be hard to come by in this one. Vegas has Arkansas -3.0 and the GCR agrees 58.9%.
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At 1:00 we have a pair of games with Glendale, Arizona’s Fiesta Bowl featuring Oklahoma St 11-2 (6) of the Big 12 and Independent Notre Dame 11-1 (4). The Cowboys lost to Iowa St by 3 and to Baylor in the Big 12 championship game but destroyed most of their other opponents. Notre Dame played a weakened schedule (with both Southern Cal and Stanford failing to post a winning season) and lost at home to Cincinnati. When the Cowboys are in possession, expect a mediocre, but occasionally explosive, offense – OER of 117 (68th) – against a stalwart Irish DER of 155 (21st). On the flip side, Notre Dame has a good OER of 133 (26th) but will face an outstanding State defense – DER 180 (5). Another bowl, another close game expected. Vegas has Notre Dame -1.5 and the GCR thinks they will play just well enough 56.8%.
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The other 1:00 game, the Citrus Bowl out of Orlando, pits Kentucky 9-3 (26) of the SEC against Iowa 10-3 (18) of the Big Ten. Kentucky started strong winning their first 6 before hitting Georgia and losing 3 straight. They won their last 3 (2 of those games were Vanderbilt and New Mexico St), but one wonders which Wildcat team will show up today. Iowa also started 6-0 before losing their next two (Purdue and Wisconsin), then went 4-0 (by a combined 27) in November before being humiliated by Michigan in the Big Ten championship game 42-3. Which Hawkeye team will show up? When Kentucky has the ball, they bring a so-so offense 122 (56th) against a good Iowa defense with a DER of 137 (32nd). The Hawkeyes have a middle of the road offense – OER 100 (131st) and will face a Wildcat DER of 126 (49th). This one looks a lot like a coin toss and is ripe for a GCR upset. Vegas has Kentucky -3.0, but the GCR thinks the Hawkeyes will win it 59.4%.
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At 5:00, we have the venerable Rose Bowl out of Pasadena with Utah 10-3 (16) of the winless Pac-12 taking on Ohio St 10-2 (9) of the Big Ten. The Utes are the Pac-12 champions which is…good, right?, but lost to 2 Group of 5 teams. Granted they were really good G5 teams (BYU and San Diego St), but still. Ohio St lost to archrival Michigan and to Pac-12 member Oregon (loser to Utah in the championship game). When Utah has the ball, they show an OER of 136 (20th) vs an uncharacteristic Buckeye DER of 128 (49th). When State has the pigskin, they bring the best offense in the country with an OER of 179 against a Ute DER of 136 (36th). Vegas has Ohio St -4.0 (down from 6.5 opening) and the GCR things the Buckeyes get the job done – just too much offense – OHST 62.8%.
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In the final game today with an 8:45 kickoff, the Sugar Bowl presents Baylor 11-2 (8) of the Big 12 and Mississippi 10-2 (11) of the SEC. Baylor beat Oklahoma St to win the Big 12 and the Rebels were second in the SEC west. This game is strength on strength and I think it will be close. When the Bears are driving, they bring an OER of 118 (67th) but will face a mediocre Ole Miss DER of 122 (59th). But when the Rebels are in possession, a strong OER of 141 (12th) will butt helmets with a Baylor DER of 155 (20th). Does mediocre vs mediocre score more than strong vs strong? Vegas likes strong, but barely, with MISS -1.5 and the GCR agrees 58.8%.
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That’s it for the day. I hope you have a wonderful new year and have a bloody mary nearby. Thanks for reading and sharing, G. Here are all the games with updated Vegas odds, records, and rankings.
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