Happy Friday and welcome back! Today we have the long-awaited semi-finals but before we get that far ahead, let’s review yesterday’s thrilling games. First, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl was a surprise to everyone when underdog South Carolina 7-6 (58) upset UNC 6-7 (70) 38-21. In a complete game from the Gamecocks including 534 yards of offense and only allow a single third down conversion in 10 tries, they looked ready to play. Note: this was the first SEC win in 5 games.
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In the Music City Bowl, a controversial ending gave Purdue 9-4 (23) the victory over Tennessee 7-6 (38) 48-45 in overtime. Tennessee looked like they had a go-ahead TD in the extra time, but the side judge called stopped forward motion before the runner stretched the ball over the goal line. A review held the call because forward motion cannot be reviewed. The runner was not down, but that’s the rule. Tough loss for Tennessee and it not only kept the Big Ten undefeated in bowl play, it gave the GCR an upset victory.
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In the Peach Bowl, someone forgot to tell Pittsburgh 11-3 (17) that the game last 60 minutes. Trailing 21-10 going to the final frame, Michigan St 11-2 (6) scored 21 to take a 10-point win, 31-21. Stealing victory from what looked like a loss, kept the Big Ten perfect while the ACC fell to 1-4.
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The Las Vegas Bowl had a busy first half with Wisconsin 9-4 (18) leading Arizona St 8-5 (64) 20-6. A Sun Devil 3rd quarter TD was the only second half score as Wisconsin held on. The GCR is now 21-9 in picks so far (includes 3 FCS games) for a cool 70% correct rate. Vegas is now 2 games behind at 19-11 (63.3%). There is a GCR upset today that could add separation or bring it to a single game. Here are the current standings:
| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| American | 4 | -3 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| ACC | 6 | -4 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 8 | -1 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| SEC | 12 | -1 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
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Today we have another quartet of games (the Arizona Bowl was cancelled) starting with the Gator Bowl out of Jacksonville with Rutgers 5-7 (86) of the Big Ten filling in for Texas A&M against Wake Forest 10-3 (16). Wake Forest has already scored a TD and are leading 7-0 with 11:34 to go in the first quarter. If you are a Wake fan, you have to love this because it should be an easy win to extend a fantastic season. I think the NCAA moved to fast to place a 5-7 team in this game since we have a few bowl-eligible teams out there. When the Scarlet Knights have the ball, expect an atrocious offense with an OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) of a sad 83 (they score 8.3 points for every 10 their opponents normally allow), good for 189th in the country. They will face a Demon Deacon DER (Defensive) of a pedestrian 100 (134th). But when Wake is in possession, an OER of 155 (6th) will face a mediocre Rutgers DER of 105 (110th). There should be a lot of points, but Wake will score a good deal more. Vegas thinks so with Wake -16.5 and the GCR agrees 76.6%. Rutgers just answered on their first drive to make it 7-7 with 5:11 in the first.
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At noon today (all times Eastern) we have the replacement Sun Bowl out of El Paso with C Michigan 8-4 (76) of the MAC facing Washington St 7-5 (57) of the Pac-12. The Chippewas were originally in the Arizona Bowl with Boise St, but when the Broncos dropped out of that game and Miami FL dropped out of this game, a natural fix was made. I like this matchup. C Michigan lost to two SEC teams (Missouri and LSU) and two conference bowl-eligible teams (Miami OH and N Illinois) but the beat W Michigan, Kent St, Ball St, and E Michigan (all bowl eligible) to end their season. When they are in control, they bring an OER of 109 (95th) to try to break through a Cougar DER of 114 (85th). Washington St was ranked in the top 25 preseason, but lost to G5 Utah St and non-bowlbound Southern Cal to start 1-3. They also lost to BYU (G5), but won against Arizona St and Oregon St. When they have the ball, an OER of 109 (94th) will drive against a Chippewa DER of 106 (109). These teams are not that far apart as seen in the Vegas line of WAST -5.5. The GCR agrees with that assessment and spread 57.7%.
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Wake Forest scored another TD and we go to the second with the Deacons leading 14-7.
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In the first semifinal game (3:30 kickoff), played at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Cincinnati 13-0 (4) of the American will be the first G5 team to appear in the playoffs. Their reward is to play behemoth (maybe that’s why they have an elephant for a mascot) Alabama 12-1 (2) of the SEC. Yes, Alabama has dropped to #2 with the poor SEC and great Big Ten bowl play. Cincinnati is the only Division I undefeated team and outscored their opponents 39.2-16.1. The Crimson Tide had one loss to Texas A&M and trounced Georgia in the SEC championship game. When the Bearcats have the ball, they bring an OER of 141 (12th) and will face a very good, but not the normal Alabama DER of 151 (22nd) – the Tide gave up more than 20 points a game. When the Elephants charge, the OER is a whopping 171 (2nd) and will face a nearly equally stellar DER of 169 (12th). This is power on power and there is a reason these two are where they are. It’s not relevant, but the American conference is 3-0 this bowl season (they had 3 cancellations – see above), and the SEC is 1-5. Does the trend continue? Vegas says no with ALA -13.5 and the GCR agrees in direction but not in scale, ALA 58.1%. Expect this game to be decided in the 4th quarter.
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Rutgers added a field goal to give us a 14-10 Wake Forest game with 11:49 in the second.
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In the nightcap (7:30 kickoff), the Orange Bowl out of Miami will give us the other participant in the Championship game. Georgia 12-1 (3) of the SEC will butt heads with Michigan 12-1 (1) of the Big Ten. Georgia looked unbeatable the entire season until the SEC Championship game and Michigan lost only to Michigan St. This will be good old-fashioned smashmouth football. All football games are won or lost at the line of scrimmage, but this one will be vicious. When UGA has the ball, an OER of 151 (10th) will face a Wolverine DER of 168 (14th). When MICH has the ball, a slightly better OER of 152 (9th) drives against the best DER in the country at 304 (they give up 10 points for every 30.4 their opponents normally score – even after giving up 41 to Alabama – let that sink in). Both of these teams are used to imposing their wills against opponents and something is going to have to give. Another perfect semifinal between teams that truly belong. Vegas likes UGA -7.5, but in a GCR upset (that will upset my wife if she reads this today), Michigan wins in a close one 56.2%. This could come down to a defensive or special teams’ score.
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Wake Forest added 3 to extend the lead to 17-14. The Scarlet Knights have the ball with 7:18 to go in the half.
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That’s it for today. Be safe out there among the crazy people (or stay in and watch football). Here is the updated list of games with a refresh of Vegas odds, records, and rankings. Thanks for reading, G
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