Welcome back, college football fans, to episode 690 dedicated to the single game being played tonight: Syracuse (1-1/92) at Pittsburgh (2-0/13). Let’s dive into this one a bit.
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The Orange, which was adopted as Syracuse’s color in 1890, the first school to pick that color, came after a number of…softer colors such as pink, pea green, or a pink/blue combination. Athletes felt those were not strong enough and orange was selected because of the connection between New York and the Dutch (House of Orange). In football this year, the Orange trounced FCS New Hampshire (1-2/245) by a score of 66-3 and lost to fellow ACC team California (1-1/82) 21-18. Both games were at home. They lost the California game because of two missed 2-point conversions and a late pick 6 that ended the scoring.
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The Panthers, also playing the first two at home, knocked out Miami OH (1-1/108) 59-14 before edging the Big 12’s UCF (1-1/50) 12-7. The held UCF scoreless until the 2:51 in the game. This is the first ACC game for PITT.
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In Tuesday’s Explanation, we walked through our OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating) and DER (Defensive), but we’ll take a moment to summarize. The metrics are based on the selected team’s performance (points scored for OER and points allowed for DER) and compares them to what the selected team’s opponents’ performance (points allowed for OER and points scored for DER). If Team A scored 30 every game and each of their opponents allowed exactly 20.0 points per game, A’s OER would be 30/20 or 150. That means they score 15.0 points for every 10.0 points their opponents allow on average (including against Team A). Similarly, if Team A allows 20 points every game and each of their opponents allowed exactly 30.0 points per game, A’s DER would be 30/20 or 150. That means they allow 10.0 points for every 15.0 points their opponents allow on average (including against Team A).
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Syracuse has an OER of 113 which is ranked 112th out of the 266 teams in Division I. They will face a Panther DER of 331 (9th). When Pittsburgh is driving, they bring an OER of 169 (20th) vs an Orange DER of 176 (36th). Vegas has Pittsburgh -11.5 and the GCR agrees on the win, and to cover. Our algorithm has PITT by 27.5 points, which is understandable given the OER/DER combinations. The game is at 7:30 Eastern on ESPN. Here is the tale of the tape:
| Time (ET) | Games of September 17th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:30 | Syracuse (1-1/92) at Pittsburgh (2-0/13) | ACC | PITT -11.5 | PITT | PITT | ESPN |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a 3-game set. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G
