Happy Thursday, oh great and wonderful college football fans. There was a major upset last night in New Orleans as Vegas and the GCR missed on W Kentucky’s impressive 44-23 win over South Alabama. The Hilltoppers could do little wrong to start the game and jumped to a 24-0 lead that the Jaguars cut to 24-3 just before halftime. But the Hilltoppers never led by less than 10 and used 677 yards of offense to end the season. Despite the GCR’s straight up record falling to 8-4 (.667) and against the spread to 7-5 (.583), I love the bowl season just for these games. Upsets seem bigger on a national stage. Here is the updated winners/losers list:
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Cincinnati, SMU | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane | |
| ACC (9) | Louisville | Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | ||
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | ||
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | Middle Tennessee |
| Indies (5) | BYU | UCONN, Liberty | New Mexico St, Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo | Miami OH | Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St | San Jose St | Air Force, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida | Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama | Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina |
…..
And the detailed stats behind those wins/losses:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 0-2 (.000) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 1-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-0 | 2-6 (.250) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten (9) | 0-0 | 6-3 (.667) | 0-0 | — | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 2-3 (.400) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-3 (.400) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-2 (.667) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| Indies (5) | 1-2 (.333) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 2-1 (.667) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) |
| MWC (7) | 2-1 (.667) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-1 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-1 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-1 (.750) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-1 (.750) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Total | 12 | 41-41 | 2-2 (.500) | 10-10 (.500) | 8-4 (.667) | 4-8 (.333) | 5-7 (.417) | 8-4 (.667) | 7-5 (.583) |
…..
Tonight, at 7:30 Eastern, we get to enjoy a game and celebrate those who put themselves at risk for the rest of us in the Armed Forces Bowl in Ft Worth. Baylor (6-6/59) of the very strong Big 12 will take on Air Force (9-3/38) who, despite not winning their division, is probably the strongest team in the Mountain West. When the Waco Bears, who have been inconsistent all year, have the ball, they bring an OER of 122, good for 54th in the nation. That means they score 12.2 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They will face one of the best defenses in the country with the Falcons DER of 167 (10th). That means they give up 10 points for every 16.7 points their opponents normally score. When the Falcons have the ball, they have an average OER of 103 (118th) while Baylor has a solid 117 DER (68th). Vegas seems to think Baylor will win as the Power 5 team in the game -3.5, but the GCR is calling for an upset again tonight, Air Force 74.2% and to cover. The summary is below.
…..
That’s it for today, day 6 of the 2022-23 bowl season. We are back again tomorrow with 2 games. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
…..
| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 22, 2022 | Armed Forces Bowl | Ft Worth | |||||
| 7:30 | Baylor (6-6/59) | Big 12 (4-5) | Air Force (9-3/38) | MWC (5-3) | BAY -3.5 | AF 74.2% | AF |
