Happy Wednesday and welcome to day 5 of the FBS bowl season. Yesterday the MAC had a great day with 2 victories. First, in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, E Michigan upset San Jose St 41-27 with a monster 2nd quarter to take a 30-13 half time lead and held on despite being outgained 498-416. Later a couple of special team miscues by Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl helped Toledo with a comeback 21-19 win. That put the GCR straight up 1-1 yesterday (8-3 for bowl season) and 2-0 against the spread (7-4 so far).
…..
Here’s the latest winners/losers table:
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Cincinnati, SMU | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane | |
| ACC (9) | Louisville | Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | ||
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | ||
| C-USA (6) | UAB | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee |
| Indies (5) | BYU | UCONN, Liberty | New Mexico St, Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo | Miami OH | Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St | San Jose St | Air Force, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida | Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina |
…..
And the detailed statistics
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 0-2 (.000) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 1-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-0 | 2-6 (.250) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten (9) | 0-0 | 6-3 (.667) | 0-0 | — | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 1-3 (.250) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 1-3 (.250) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| Indies (5) | 1-2 (.333) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 2-1 (.667) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) |
| MWC (7) | 2-1 (.667) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-1 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-1 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-0 (1.000) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 3-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| Total | 11 | 41-41 | 2-2 (.500) | 9-9 (.500) | 8-3 (.727) | 3-8 (.273) | 5-6 (.455) | 8-3 (.727) | 7-4 (.636) |
…..
I’m pretty excited about today’s game because of the matchup. W Kentucky (8-5/86), third in Conference USA, will meet up with South Alabama (10-2), who came in a second in the West via tiebreaker to eventual Sun Belt champion and Cure Bowl winner Troy. The game, in New Orleans, kicks off at 9:00 Eastern. As I reviewed the schedules, there were no upsets (although W Kentucky lost to Indiana by 3, Troy by 7, and UTSA by 3 while South Alabama lost to UCLA by 1 and Troy by 4) – both teams beat the teams they should have beaten and lost to better (or higher league) teams. Not to mention they have two of the better mascots in FBS: W Kentucky Hilltoppers (which is some kind of red muppet sort of thing that is both silly and frightening) and the South Alabama Jaguars. All of this is really intriguing to me and when the Hilltoppers are on offense they bring a very good OER of 121 (good for 56th in the nation). That means they score 12.1 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They need it because the Jaguars have a stellar defense with a DER of 134 (36th). That means they allow 10 points for every 13.4 points they opponents normally score. On the flip side, the boys from Mobile have a decent offense with an OER of 111 (91st) while the boys from Bowling Green (Kentucky) have a solid defense with a DER of 116 (74th). It just seems like a hard-fought battle will ensue. Vegas thinks it’s close but gives the edge to SALA -4.5 and the GCR likes the Jags as well to win 79.7% and to cover.
…..
That’s it for today. One game tomorrow as well. Happy Holidays to everyone and I hope the hustle and bustle of the season still allows you to catch a game here and there. Thank you for reading and sharing, G. Here’s the summary for today.
| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 21, 2022 | New Orleans Bowl | New Orleans | |||||
| 9:00 | W Kentucky (8-5/86) | C-USA (6-2) | South Alabama (10-2/21) | SUN (7-1) | SALA -4.5 | SALA 79.7% | SALA |
