G’s Expectation or the Games of December 20th
Welcome back for another bowl game episode of G’s Expectation. A recap of yesterday’s Myrtle Beach Bowl shows what looked like a complete blowout by Marshall (and especially that defense – wow!) turn into a potential major comeback in the 3rd quarter. The Thundering Herd had a commanding 28-0 lead with 9:51 to go in that quarter when UCONN finally found some offense. Two quick scores cut the lead in half and the Huskies were driving again when a questionable no-call for pass interference led to some choice words by UCONN head coach Jim Mora who was then flagged with a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty killing the momentum. The Huskies never gave up and drove again (after a called PI), but an end zone interception ended their chances. So boring first half, really exciting second half and the GCR was correct straight up but missed ATS.
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That brings us to the winners/losers up to the minute listing below. The Sun Belt is now off to a 3-0 start!
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Cincinnati, SMU | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane | |
| ACC (9) | Louisville | Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | ||
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | ||
| C-USA (6) | UAB | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee |
| Indies (5) | BYU | UCONN | Liberty, New Mexico St, Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | Miami OH | E Michigan, Toledo, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio | |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St | San Jose St, Air Force, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming | |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida | Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina |
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And the statistics behind that table. The GCR ATS dropped to 5-4 (.556) while SU improved to 7-2 (.778).
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 0-2 (.000) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 1-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-0 | 2-6 (.250) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten (9) | 0-0 | 6-3 (.667) | 0-0 | — | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 1-3 (.250) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 1-3 (.250) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| Indies (5) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 1-1 (.500) | 0-0 (—) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-0 (—) | 0-0 (—) | 1-1 (.500) |
| MAC (6) | 0-1 (.000) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 0-1 (.000) | 0-0 (—) | 0-1 (0500) | 0-0 (—) | 0-0 (—) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| MWC (7) | 2-0 (1.000) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 (—) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 (—) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-1 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-1 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-0 (1.000) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 3-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| Total | 9 | 41 | 2-2 (.500) | 7-7 (.500) | 7-2 (.778) | 2-7 (.222) | 5-4 (.556) | 7-2 (.778) | 5-4 (.556) |
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Today brings us two bowls starting at 3:30 (all times Eastern) when Boise’s blue field gives us the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl featuring E Michigan (8-4/86) of the MAC and San Jose St (7-4/80) of the Mountain West. This game promises to be a good game because the teams are very evenly matched. When the Eagles have the ball, they will bring an OER of 100 (that means they score 10 points for every 10 points their opponents give up) good for 134th out of 261. To combat that straight up average offense, San Jose St brings a very slightly above average DER of 109 (93rd). Conversely, the Spartans OER of 99 (140th) will combat a DER of 90 (183). Vegas has San Jose St -4.5, but the GCR thinks E Michigan (with a signature win over Arizona St) should win 55.8% and to cover.
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At 7:30 the Boca Raton bowl named for the city in Florida pits Liberty (8-4/72) in their last game as an independent before joining Conference USA next year and Toledo (8-5/77), winner of the MAC Championship game in another good one. Toledo won as a defensive team with a DER of 112 (86th) and will face a Flames OER of 103 (117th). However, the Rockets OER is just 70 (they score 7 points for every 10 points their opponents gave up) good for 230th against a Liberty DER of 102 (128th). The GCR calculates the Rocket offense won’t be able to keep up and has Liberty to win 57.5% and to cover as the Vegas line is TOL -3.5.
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Here’s the summary. Thanks for reading and sharing and enjoy day 4 of this year’s bowl games, G
| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 20, 2022 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Boise, ID | |||||
| 3:30 | E Michigan (8-4/86) | MAC (5-3) | San Jose St (7-4/80) | MWC (5-3) | SJST -4.5 | EMI 55.8% | EMI |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Boca Raton, FL | ||||||
| 7:30 | Liberty (8-4/72) | IND (2-2) | Toledo (8-5/77) | MAC (6-3) | TOL -3.5 | LIB 57.5% | LIB |
