G’s Expectation or The Myrtle Beach Bowl

Welcome back from a much-needed day of rest following Saturday’s action. Let’s do a quick review. In the FCS, Jackson St lost in overtime to NC Central 41-34 in the Celebration Bowl (back-to-back upset losses in Atlanta), but still finished 12-1 in Coach Prime’s last season there. We’ll see if he can turn around Colorado. The second semi-final was not as nail-biting as South Dakota St dispensed with Montana St 39-18. They will now have a rematch with conference foe and reigning FCS champion North Dakota St, January 8th. Way back on October 15th, SDKS beat the Bison 23-21 at NDST.

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In the FBS, we had 6 games on Saturday. The first 3 were not close: Louisville socked Cincinnati 24-7 in the Fenway Bowl; Florida lost their shirt 30-3 to Oregon St in the Las Vegas Bowl; and Fresno St took down Washington St 29-6 in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. The later games were much more interesting to watch as Southern Miss scored a TD with less than 3:00 to play to put Rice out of reach, 38-24 at the LendingTree Bowl. The first night game was a nail biter, 24-23, as SMU, who had player injury and fatigue issues, went for 2 with 8 seconds to go and failed (probably shouldn’t have run a QB draw up the middle, but that’s just me) allowing BYU to survive the New Mexico Bowl (played at more than 5100 feet above sea level). The nightcap, which included some pushing/shoving/punching so much that it ended after 1:00 am (all times Eastern), was the Frisco Bowl which saw Boise St taking a 35-32 victory over North Texas.

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Here are the updated conference-by-conference winners and losers so far.

ConferenceWinnersLosersRemaining
American (7)Cincinnati, SMUHouston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane
ACC (9)LouisvilleWake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson
Big 12 (8)Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU
Big Ten (9)Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St
C-USA (6)UABUTSA, Rice, North TexasW Kentucky, Middle Tennessee
Indies (5)BYUUCONN, Liberty, New Mexico St, Notre Dame
MAC (6)Miami OHE Michigan, Toledo, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio
MWC (7)Fresno St, Boise StSan Jose St, Air Force, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming
Pac 12 (7)Oregon StWashington StOregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah
SEC (11)FloridaMissouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU
Sun (7)Troy, Southern MissMarshall, South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina

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And here’s today’s summary comparison of conferences and how the GCR is performing:

ConferenceRecordExp Recvs Power 5vs Group 5FavoriteUnderdogVegas ATSGCR S/UGCR Cover
American (7)0-2 (.000)4-3 (.571)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-2 (.000)0-1 (.000)
ACC (9)1-0 (1.000)5-4 (.554)0-0
(—)
1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)0-0 (—)1-0 (1.000)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
Big 12 (8)0-0
(—)
2-6 (.250)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
0-0 (—)0-0 (—)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
Big Ten (9)0-0
(—)
6-3 (.667)0-0
(—)
0-0 (—)0-0 (—)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
C-USA (6)1-3 (.250)2-4 (.333)1-3 (.250)1-1 (.500)0-2 (.000)0-2 (.000)1-0 (1.000)0-1 (.000)
Indies (5)1-0 (1.000)1-4 (.200)0-0
(—)
1-0 (1.000)0-0 (—)1-0 (1.000)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
1-0 (1.000)
MAC (6)0-1 (.000)2-4 (.333)0-1 (.000)0-0 (—)0-1 (0500)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
1-0 (1.000)
MWC (7)2-0 (1.000)5-2 (.714)1-0 (1.000)1-1 (.500)2-0 (1.000)0-1 (.000)1-1 (.500)2-0 (1.000)1-1 (.500)
Pac 12 (7)1-1 (.500)5-2 (.714)1-0 (1.000)0-0
(—)
1-0 (1.000)0-0 (—)1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)
SEC (11)0-1 (000)5-6 (.455)0-1 (000)0-0 (—)0-1 (.000)0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
0-0
(—)
Sun (7)2-0 (1.000)4-3 (.571)2-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)2-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)
Total841-412-2 (.500)6-6 (.500)6-2 (.750)2-6 (.250)4-4 (.500)6-2 (.750)5-3 (.625)

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Today, at 2:30, we have a single game and it’s a rematch of sorts. In the Myrtle Beach Bowl, held in nearly Conway, SC, home of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, we see Marshall (8-4/61) of the Sun Belt take on Independent UCONN (6-6/93). Marshall upset Notre Dame 26-21 in September but lost to Bowling Green 34-31 the next week. At one point falling to 4-4, they finished the season with wins over Old Dominion, App St, Ga Southern, and Georgia St. UCONN started 1-4 with the victory over FCS C Connecticut before surprising Fresno St and Boston College. At one point they had a winning record at 6-5 before dropping the finale to Army 34-17. This is the first bowl game for the Huskies since 2015 when they played and lost to Marshall in the St Petersburg Bowl (now Gasparilla Bowl). When the Huskies have the ball, a poor offense (OER of 77 good for 207th out of 261) will face a fantastic defense (DER of 176 good for 6th). On the flip side, the Thundering Herd (or maybe not quite too Thundering) brings a below average OER of 87 (173rd) vs a slightly below average DER of 94 (164th). Look for a low scoring affair today (over under is just 40.5) with Marshall prevailing 63.4%. Vegas has MARS -11.0, but the GCR thinks the Huskies will keep it closer – UCON to cover.

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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow when we have 2 games to predict. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G

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TimeAwayConf RecHomeConf RecVegasGCRTo Cover
December 19Myrtle Beach BowlConway, SC
2:30Marshall
(8-4/61) – N
SUN (5-3)UCONN
(6-6/93) – N
IND
(2-10)
MARS -11.0MARS 63.4%UCON