Welcome back, sports fans. There are 10 conference championship games over the next two days with some pretty substantial consequences. We are focusing on them today. Tune in tomorrow for an in-depth look at Round 2 of the FCS Playoffs.
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At the end of this post, I have a summary for each of the games. Let’s look at each conference one at a time.
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First up, at 7:00 tonight (Friday) featured on CBS Sports is the Conference USA title game. The Kennesaw St Owls will travel to Jacksonville, Alabama to play the Jacksonville St Gamecocks. The Owls (hoot) have 3 losses while the Gamecocks have 4, so this game is nothing other than the championship trophy and a better bowl game. There is zero chance of either of these teams making the playoffs. The played at the same location November 15th; a game in which JXST won 35-26. But both Vegas and the GCR consider KNST the better team. Vegas has KNST-2.5 and the GCR has them winning 52.0% of the time. That means, we think it will be a 2-point game so Jacksonville St will cover in a loss.
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Also at 7:00 tonight on ESPN, we have the Sun Belt championship in Harrisonburg, VA, as the Troy Trojans (8-4/71) travel to meet James Madison Dukes (11-1/21). The Sun Belt is the only FBS conference with divisions: Troy from the West and JMU from the East. This game does have playoff implications. The top 2 Group of 5 teams are North Texas of the American and James Madison. A complete win, especially a dramatic win or a blowout, could make the Dukes the first Sun Belt playoff team. Another chance for them is if Duke wins the ACC (see below). Vegas likes JMU-23.5 and that is a lot for a championship game – even a home game – but the GCR agrees with JMU winning 78.0% of the time and to cover.
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At 8:00, Fox joins the fray showing the Mountain West championship on the blue field in Boise. The UNLV Rebels (10-2/43) will face the Boise St Broncos (8-4/58). I do not see a playoff opportunity for either team although keep an eye on UNLV over the next few years; unless Virginia, North Texas, and James Madison all lose AND UNLV wins big on the road. The two games met on the same field October 18th, and the Broncos ran away with it 56-31 for the Rebels first loss. Will blue lightning strike twice? Vegas thinks so with BOST-5.5, but the GCR disagrees with UNLV winning 58.0% of the time and covering.
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Our final Friday night game, also at 8:00 but on ABC, is the American Athletic Championship in New Orleans. The North Texas Mean Green (11-1/20) will travel to play the Tulane Green Wave (10-2/41) in a matchup not only of great mascots but of great football. These teams did not meet in the regular season, but both could make the playoffs if Virginia, UNLV, and James Madison lose AND Tulane wins. In addition, the winner of this game looks to make the playoffs if a) North Texas wins or b) Tulane wins AND James Madison loses – even if Virginia wins. North Texas was blown out 63-36 by South Florida on October 10th but has been perfect otherwise. Vegas likes NTEX to win -2.5 and the GCR agrees with the Mean Green defeating the Green Wave 55.0% of the time – NTEX to cover and make the playoffs.
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At noon on Saturday showing on ESPN, we have the MAC championship played at Ford Field in Detroit. The Miami OH RedHawks (7-5/78) will take on the W Michigan Broncos (8-4/63) in a non-playoff impacting game, but the winner likely will be invited to the Bahamas Bowl, which is a pretty nice reward for a good season. MIAO beat WMI at home 26-17 October 25th. Vegas sees WMI-2.5 getting some revenge and the GCR agrees 54.5% and to cover.
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Also at noon on ABC we have the Big 12 Championship game live from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The BYU Cougars (11-1/7) will face the Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1/3) in a rematch of the November 8th game played at TXTC. The Red Raiders won that game 29-7 for BYU’s only loss of the season. Will semi-neutral territory make a difference? Vegas says no with TXTC-12.5 and the GCR agrees on the victory with TXTC winning 62.0% of the time, but that means BYU will cover. Both of these teams have near lock chances, pending an embarrassing blowout for either side, of making the playoffs. The winner will grab one of the highest (AP poll) ranked 5 conference champion spots.
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At 2:00 on ESPN2, we have the only FCS conference that not only has divisions but also has a championship game in Jackson, Mississippi. The Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) is one of two the HBCU conferences in Division I (the MEAC is the other). The winner of this championship game will play South Carolina St of the MEAC in the Celebration Bowl to crown the HBCU winner for this season. The Prairie View Panthers (9-3/153) won the west and will travel to meet the eastern champion Jackson St Tigers (9-2/139). These teams did not meet in the regular season. Vegas likes JACK-8.5 and, similar to the Big 12, the GCR has JACK winning 58.0% of the time which is a half point short. The Panthers should cover, but the Tigers will be heading to Atlanta to face the SCST Bulldogs December 13th.
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Speaking of Atlanta, the SEC championship is at 4:00 on ABC. The Georgia Bulldogs (11-1/6) will face the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2/14) for the second time this year. Back on September 27th, the Bulldogs kept the Tide scoreless in the second half but came up short 24-21 in Athens, GA. One could argue that the Bulldogs have had the best team in the country for the last 10 years or so, but beating Alabama is one of the things they do not do often. I think Alabama needs to win or lose a close game (and get some help from upsets) to make the playoffs although the committee is likely more emotionally attached to the history of the Tide vs this season (that game 1 loss to 5-7 Florida St just eats at us and a lackluster game at Auburn to end the season didn’t win us over either). Except for a conference champion, the committee set the standard last season that a 3-loss team should not be invited. If Bama wins, the question is will they be highly ranked enough for a first round bye. If Georgia wins, that answer is yes. Vegas sees the Bulldogs pulling this one through though -2.5 and the GCR agrees 59.5% and to cover. Now we have to see how the committee deals with a 3-loss blue blood.
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There are two polar opposites of games in the 8:00 spot. First, on Fox, we have the Big Ten championship featuring the only two remaining undefeated teams in the FBS: the Indiana Hoosiers (12-0/2) and the Ohio St Buckeyes (12-0/1). Obviously, these teams have not faced each other this year. The biggest question all year has been is Indiana for real? Well, they won 12 in a row, so they have something. Upsets happen. Bad game plans happen. Stupid decisions and broken plays happen. But the Hoosiers survived every game. They scored 532 points (44.3/game) and only gave up 131 (10.9). The offensive juggernaut will face one of the best scoring defensives we’ve seen in the last few years with the Buckeyes only allowing 93 points all year – just 7.75 per game. They also scored 444 (37.0) so they are not slouches on offense either. We believe one of three things will happen: 1) this will be the most exciting college football game all season ending in a one-score victory for someone, 2) the two teams sludge their way through a 7-3 game or, 3) one of these teams doesn’t live up to the hype and gets blown out by 50 points. Almost all eyes will be turned towards Indianapolis (especially under scenario 1) to see how this turns out. Both teams will make the playoffs, but the winner will get the top seed. Vegas likes OHST-4.5 and the GCR has the Buckeyes winning 53.0% of the time meaning we do see a close game. Buckeyes win, Hoosiers cover and wonder what if.
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All eyes cannot be on the previous game because like we are drawn to look at a car crash we pass, we have to turn to Charlotte to watch the train wreck the ACC became this season. Also at 8:00 on ABC, The Duke Blue Devils (7-5/36) will take on the Virginia Cavaliers (10-2/16). Yes, Miami FL is 10-2, but they did not win the tiebreaker. The ACC tiebreaker system has multiple steps. The first one assumes just two teams. Virginia won the ACC with a 7-1 record (although they lost a “non-conference” game to NC St so they were really 7-2, but not). There was a 5-way tie for second at 6-2 between Duke (7-5), Georgia Tech (9-3), Miami FLA (10-2), Pittsburgh (8-4), and SMU (8-4). So we move past the first rule and look at the next 3 which are for multiple tied teams but assume a scenario in which all of the tied teams played each of the other tied teams. That did not happen, so we go to the next step which is ACC opponents’ ACC records. Duke’s opponents had a higher winning percentage than the other 4, so here we are. If Virginia wins, they will be in the playoffs as the ACC champion. However, if Duke wins, that gives Virginia a 3-loss season so they are likely out. Miami FL lost to Louisville and SMU after starting 5-0 and lost precious AP poll votes so they are likely not in as an at-large team as they would have to be in the top 10 to make it because of the guaranteed top 5 ranked conference champion rule. Duke will be just 8-5 and ranked lower than North Texas and James Madison if both teams win. In fact, if Tulane wins the American, they have a pretty good chance of outranking Duke. That would mean that the ACC would have no teams in the playoffs. So, if you want an ACC team in the playoffs, pull for Virginia. If you want to see the first Core 4 conference to miss out or you just like underdogs, pull for Duke. Vegas has VIR-4.5 and the GCR is fully in agreement with VIR winning 74.5% of the time and to cover and to make the playoffs.
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a run-down of Round Two of the FCS playoffs – there are some really good matchups. Thank you for reading and for taking the time to share with others, JoJo and G. Now we are proud to present the predictions for every conference championship game this weekend.
| Time | Conference (Location) | Team | Team | Vegas | GCR Win | GCR Cover |
| FRI 7:00 | Conference USA (@Jacksonville St) | Kennesaw St (9-3/52) | Jacksonville St (8-4/80) | KNST-2.5 | KNST 52.0% | JXST |
| FRI 7:00 | Sun Belt (@James Madison) | Troy (8-4/71) | James Madison (11-1/21) | JMU-22.5 | JMU 78.0% | JMU |
| FRI 8:00 | Mountain West (@Boise St) | UNLV (10-2/43) | Boise St (804/58) | BOST-5.5 | UNLV 58.0% | UNLV |
| FRI 8:00 | American Athletic (@Tulane) | North Texas (11-1/20) | Tulane (10-2/41) | NTEX-2.5 | NTEX 55.0% | NTEX |
| 12:00 | MAC (Detroit) | Miami OH (7-5/78) | W Michigan (8-4/63) | WMI-2.5 | WMI 54.5% | WMI |
| 12:00 | Big 12 (Arlington, TX) | BYU (11-1/7) | Texas Tech (11-1/3) | TXTC-12.5 | TXTC 62.0% | BYU |
| 2:00 | SWAC (@Jackson St) | Prairie View (9-3/153) | Jackson St (9-2/139) | JACK-8.5 | JACK 58.0% | PV |
| 4:00 | SEC (Atlanta) | Georgia (11-1/6) | Alabama (10-2/14) | GEO-2.5 | GEO 59.5% | GEO |
| 8:00 | Big Ten (Indianapolis) | Indiana (12-0/2) | Ohio St (12-0/1) | OHST-4.5 | OHST 53.0% | IND |
| 8:00 | ACC (Charlotte) | Duke (7-5/36) | Virginia (10-2/16) | VIR-4.5 | VIR 74.5% | VIR |
