G’s Expectation or the FCS Championship

Welcome back after the short break from college football after a whirlwind bowl season. There are just 2 championship games left starting today at 2:00 Eastern with the FCS Championship game played in Frisco, Texas. The game not only features conference foes, but a bitter rivalry. North Dakota St holds the record with 9 FCS championships without a loss in the title game, including the 2021-22 season while the Jackrabbits are looking for the first ever. There are 22 different schools that have claimed the title:

TeamYears WonNote
App St2005, 06, 07Now in FBS (Sun Belt)
Boise St1980Now in FBS (Mtn West)
Delaware2003
E Kentucky1979, 82
E Washington2010
Florida A&M1978
Furman1988
Ga Southern1985, 86, 89, 90, 99, 2000Now in FBS (Sun Belt)
Idaho St1981
James Madison2004, 16Now in FBS (Sun Belt)
Marshall1992, 96Now in FBS (Sun Belt)
Montana1995, 2001
Montana St1984
North Dakota St2011, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 21
Richmond2008
Sam Houston2020Moving to FBS in 2023 (C-USA)
S Illinois1983
ULM1987Now in FBS (Sun Belt)
UMASS1988Now in FBS (Independent)
Villanova2009
W Kentucky2002Now in FBS (C-USA)
Youngstown St1991, 93, 94, 97

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This is the first appearance in the final for South Dakota St and the 10th for the Bison. Let’s break down their seasons. Note, all rankings are out of 261. OER is a measure of scoring ability: an OER of 125 means the team scores 12.5 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. Similarly, the DER is a measure of scoring avoidance: a DER of 125 means the team allows 10 points for every 12.5 points their opponents normally score.

StatNDSTSDKS
Record12-2 (7-1)13-0 (8-0)
Average Score35.3 – 18.433.4 – 15.4
Opp Record102-78 (.567)106-50 (.586)
Opp Avg Rec6.8-5.27.1-5.0
Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER)129 (31st)135 (21st)
Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER)148 (21st)175 (5th)
GCR Rank/SOS Rank120/168115/164
Common Opp Record (Point Differential)5-0 (+99)5-0 (+129)
Head-to-HeadLossWin (23-21)

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And a last bit of analysis as we look at each game these teams played, side by side. I’m using some symbols to help identify information. & indicates a team that made the postseason, either the FCS playoffs or a bowl game, # indicates an FBS opponent, * indicates a conference game, % indicates a playoff game.

GameNDST BisonSDKS Jackrabbits
1Drake (56-14)&# Iowa (3-7) – LOSS
2NC A&T (43-3)UC Davis (24-22)
3# Arizona (28-31) – LOSSButler (45-17)
4* South Dakota (34-17)* Missouri St (28-14)
5* Youngstown St (27-14)* W Illinois (34-10)
6* Indiana St (31-26)* South Dakota (28-3)
7&* South Dakota St (21-23) – LOSS&* North Dakota St (23-21)
8* W Illinois (56-17)&* North Dakota (49-35)
9* S Illinois (21-18)* Illinois St (31-7)
10&* North Dakota (42-21)* Indiana St (49-7)
11* Illinois St (24-7)* N Iowa (31-28)
PO&% Montana (49-26)&% Delaware (42-6)
PO&% Samford (27-9)&% Holy Cross (42-21)
PO&% Incarnate Word (35-32)&% Montana St (39-18)

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Vegas has South Dakota St winning a second time over the Bison -5.5 and while the GCR agrees the Jackrabbits pick up their first championship game 55.9%, it will be a very close game. NDST to cover.

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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow to recap this game and see the analysis and prediction for the Bowl Championship Game featuring TCU and Georgia. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G