Sorry for the late post, college football fans, but it’s been one of those days. Have no fear though, the GCR building (aka my house) and the entire staff (aka me) have been working on the analysis for this game all week long. First, congratulations to the South Dakota St Jackrabbits for beating their archrival North Dakota St 45-21 for their first ever NCAA football championship. This is the highest NCAA recognized championship in the sport (sorry TCU and Georgia) and they finally reached the top. NDST didn’t cover the spread as I expected, but all is good in South Dakota today.
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Let’s focus on the game tonight because, will all due respect to the FCS and the NCAA, this game tonight is the fans’ most important game of the season. Let’s break down both the Horned Frogs and the Bulldogs seasons. Note, all rankings are out of 261. OER is a measure of scoring ability: an OER of 125 means the team scores 12.5 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. Similarly, the DER is a measure of scoring avoidance: a DER of 125 means the team allows 10 points for every 12.5 points their opponents normally score. Because TCU and Georgia did not play any common opponents, I substituted vs Bowl Teams (teams that played a bowl game).
| Stat | TCU | Georgia |
| Record | 13-1 (9-1) | 14-0 (9-0) |
| Average Score | 41.1 – 26.4 | 39.4 – 14.8 |
| Opponent Record | 111-83 (.572) | 120-71 (.628) |
| Opp Avg Record | 7.4-5.5 | 8.0-4.7 |
| Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) | 147 (10th) | 150 (8th) |
| Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) | 119 (65th) | 208 (1st) |
| GCR Rank/SOS Rank | 3/45 | 1/15 |
| Vs Bowl Teams | 9-1 | 9-0 |
| 21+ Point Wins | 4 | 8 |
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And a last bit of analysis as we look at each game these teams played side by side. I’m using some symbols to help identify information. & indicates a team that played in a bowl game, * indicates a conference game, % indicates an FCS opponent, and # indicates a conference championship or playoff game.
| Game | TCU Horned Frogs | Georgia Bulldogs |
| 1 | Colorado (38-13) | & Oregon (49-3) |
| 2 | % Tarleton (59-17) | % Samford (33-0) |
| 3 | & SMU (42-34) | &* South Carolina (48-7) |
| 4 | &* Oklahoma (55-24) | Kent St (39-22) |
| 5 | &* Kansas (38-31) | &* Missouri (26-22) |
| 6 | &* Oklahoma St (43-40) | * Auburn (42-10) |
| 7 | &* Kansas St (38-28) | * Vanderbilt (55-0) |
| 8 | * West Virginia (41-31) | &* Florida (42-20) |
| 9 | &* Texas Tech (34-24) | &* Tennessee (27-13) |
| 10 | &* Texas (17-10) | &* Mississippi St (45-19) |
| 11 | &* Baylor (29-28) | &* Kentucky (16-6) |
| 12 | * Iowa St (62-14) | Georgia Tech (37-14) |
| 13 | &*# Kansas St (28-31) – LOSS | &$* LSU (50-30) |
| 14 | &# Michigan (51-45) | &# Ohio St (42-41) |
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Vegas has Georgia winning -13.0 and as high as that value sounds, and as fast as TCU can score, the GCR picks the Bulldogs to win 93.7% and to cover.
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That’s it for today. As soon as I can (tomorrow or Wednesday) I’ll publish the final GCR followed by a few more posts with analysis and breakdown before the offseason begins. Thank you for sticking with us throughout this season. As always, thank you for reading and sharing with others, G
