Happy Friday, oh great and wonderful sports fans. I hope you’ve read about the FCS and are ready for some bowl action.
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At the GCR, bowl season is a little unique. Since August, we had one Expectation for the week to predict every game: sometimes over 130 of them. But during bowl season, we focus on one day at a time, for a little more TLC than the regular season. Sometimes that means just a single game, sometimes a few. In between games, the GCR is updated with the latest scores, which of course changes the rankings. I don’t republish the whole thing every day, but I do keep track. All predictions for bowl games take every previous game into account up to the day before the bowl in question. When I put the parenthetical (W-L/GCR Rank) next to a team, it will be current as of the morning (or evening before depending on the time of the post) of the game.
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We also start each day with a recap of the last games. This one is easy from the FBS standpoint. Army (6-6/105) beat Navy 17-11. Navy (5-7/123) did all of its scoring in the 4th quarter and had a change to get the TD but came up 2 yards short on a 4th down play. At 17-9, they would have had to make a 2-pt conversion to tie the game, but they had the momentum. A safety just before time expired made is a six-point game and more of thriller than the first 3 quarters presented.
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The GCR predicted that game and 3 of the 4 FCS quarter finals. That means going into the bowl season, the GCR predicted the winners of 774 FBS games and was correct 568 times (.734). The GCR predicted the winners of 580 FCS game and was correct 381 times (.657). The GCR predicted 649 games against the Vegas spread and was correct 343 times (.529). In 82 featured games, the GCR correctly picked the winner 63 times (.766). In 51 featured ATS games, the GCR correctly picked the winner 32 times (.627). Every bowl game will be featured both for the winner and ATS. The 4 remaining FCS games will be featured just for the winner.
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The Myrtle Beach Bowl kicks off the schedule at 11:00am (All times Eastern and pm unless otherwise noted) featuring Georgia Southern (6-6/111) of the Sun Belt against Ohio (9-3/55) of the MAC. Let’s compare their opponents. Note: OER is Offensive Efficiency Rating and DER is Defensive Efficiency Rating.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| GASO | 109 (92nd)/30.9 | 86 (199th)/29.6 | 68-76 (.472) – 105 | 2-6 (.250) | Coastal Carolina (7-5/85) | Texas St (7-5/102) |
| OHIO | 88 (176th)/22.9 | 144 (25th)/15.4 | 58-86 (.403) – 132 | 2-2 (.500) | Iowa St (7-5/33) | N Illinois (6-6/131) |
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Vegas likes Ga Southern -2.5, but the GCR has Ohio winning 74% of the time due to a much more developed defense. The Bobcats to win and cover.
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At 2:15, the New Orleans Bowl features Jacksonville St (8-4/79) of Conference USA, in not only their first bowl game ever, but also their first season as an FBS team, taking on Louisiana (6-6/122) of the Sun Belt.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| JAX | 109 (91st)/29.8 | 124 (60th)/20.3 | 68-78 (.466) – 114 | 2-3 (.400) | W Kentucky (7-5/81) | Coastal Carolina (7-5/85) |
| LAU | 108 (96th)/32.3 | 89 (183th)/28.2 | 59-80 (.424) – 129 | 2-4 (.333) | South Alabama (6-6/86) | Arkansas St (6-6/104) |
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Vegas likes Jacksonville St -2.5 and the GCR agrees winning 64% of the time and the Gamecocks will also cover.
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With a 3:30 kickoff, the Cure Bowl, out of Orlando, pits the MAC champion Miami OH Redhawks (11-2/26) and the Sun Belt runner up App St Mountaineers (8-5/78).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| MIAO | 99 (126th)/26.9 | 144 (23rd)/16.2 | 66-91 (.420) – 123 | 3-2 (.600) | Toledo (11-2/32) | Toledo (11-2/ 32) |
| APST | 131 (31st)/34.8 | 93 (163rd)/28.4 | 83-74 (.529) – 88 | 4-5 (.444) | James Madison (11-1/14) | Old Dominion (6-6/95) |
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Vegas likes App St -6.0,but the GCR thinks defense will win out and Miami OH wins and covers.
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Our next game is the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque with a 5:45 kickoff. New Mexico St (11-3/60), runner up for Conference USA takes on Fresno St (8-4/90) of the Mountain West.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| NMST | 97 (140th)/28.7 | 119 (69th)/21.8 | 76-94 (.447) – 109 | 3-2 (.600) | Auburn (6-6/ 43) | Hawaii (5-8/ 117) |
| FRST | 99 (125th)/29.9 | 107 (93rd)/24.6 | 60-85 (.414) – 130 | 3-2 (.600) | Purdue (4-8/ 49) | San Diego St (4-8/119) |
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Vegas likes New Mexico St -3.5 and the GCR agrees the Aggies with win and cover.
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The LA Bowl, with a 7:30 kickoff, pits UCLA (7-5/63) of the Pac-12 against the Mountain West Champions Boise St (8-5/59).
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| UCLA | 90 (167th)/25.8 | 161 (14th)/18.1 | 73-71 (.507) – 76 | 2-4 (.333) | Southern Cal (7-5/37) | Arizona St (3-9/53) |
| BOST | 123 (46th)/32.9 | 124 (58th)/24.8 | 94-64 (.595) – 70 | 6-4 (.600) | Wyoming (8-4/56) | Colorado St (5-7/132) |
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Vegas likes UCLA-5.5 and the GCR agrees with the Bruins win, but BOST will cover
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The final bowl tomorrow, with a 9:15 kickoff, is the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA. California (6-6/46) of the Pac-12 will take on Texas Tech (6-6/42) of the Big 12.
| Team | OER/PPG | DER/PPG | Opp’s Record – Rank | Vs Bowl Teams | Best Win | Worst Loss |
| CAL | 121 (53rd)/31.6 | 95 (153rd) | 85-62 (.578) – 18 | 1-6 (.143) | Stanford (3-9/52) | Auburn (6-6/43) |
| TXTC | 106 (105th)/26.8 | 116 (70th)/27.0 | 86-59 (.593) – 15 | 2-5 (.286) | Kansas (8-4/31) | BYU (5-7/57) |
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Vegas likes Texas Tech -3.5 and the GCR agrees that the Red Raiders will win and cover.
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That’s it for today. Hope you enjoy the format. Thanks for reading and for sharing with others, G
