Welcome back college football fans! This is the first of two Expectations today and will focus just on the FCS which has 3 very important games this weekend.

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First, in the first semifinal, which kicked off about 22 minutes ago, pits the only remaining east coast team representing the Colonial Athletic Conference, Albany Great Danes (11-3/138) at the home of the only unbeaten FCS school, South Dakota St Jackrabbits (13-0/99). When the Danes are driving, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 112 (good for 80th in the country out of 261) which means they score 11.2 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. However, the Jackrabbits hold the distinction of having the stingiest relative scoring defense with a Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 267 (1st in the nation) meaning they give up 10.0 points for every 26.7 their opponents normally score. When SDKS has the ball, they bring an impressive OER of 150 (8th) against a solid ALB DER of 152 (20th). Albany may not score, and the Jackrabbits should run away with it. The GCR has SDKS to win 82%. The winner of this game will play for the championship in January.

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Just checked the score: 14-0 Jackrabbits with 2:17 in the 1st.

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Stepping away from the playoffs, the annual Celebration Bowl, played in Atlanta, which pits the champions of the 2 HBCU conferences, the MEAC and the SWAC. This year the SWAC representative, the Florida A&M Rattlers (11-1/125) face the Howard Bison (6-5/176) who were 4-1 in the MEAC including a huge victory over presumptive favorite NC Central. Just looking at records, this looks like a blowout, but 2 years ago 6-5 South Carolina St trounced 11-1 Jackson St in this bowl. The game kicks off at noon on Saturday on ABC and will be a really good football game. When the Rattlers take offense, an OER of 112 (81st) will face a Howard DER of 100 (126). But Howard will have to overcome a less than average OER of 93 (154th) and do so against a FLAM DER of 139 (36th). I have Florida A&M winning big at 77%, but this game is full of surprises (last year an undefeated Jackson St lost this game).

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Still 14-0 with 13:54 to go in the half.

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Our second semifinal pits the other Missouri Valley team (along with South Dakota St), North Dakota St Bison (11-3/137) facing off against the last-standing Big Sky participant Montana Grizzlies (12-1/128). NDST is the defending champion but did not qualify for a bye this year. When the Bison are driving, an OER of 148 (10th) will take on an equally strong Montana DER of 170 (12th). When the Grizzlies are on the prowl, an OER of 121 (52st) faces a NDST DER of 139 (34th). This looks like a close one and the GCR picks Montana to make it to the finals but just at 58%. Kickoff is at 4:30 on Saturday.

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South Dakota St just rushed 2 yards to take a 21-0 lead with 11:04 to go in the half.

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That’s it for this post. Later this evening look for the first of the FBS bowl season Expectations. In the meantime, there’s a really good football team playing on ESPN2. Thank you for reading and for sharing, G