Bowl season is here, oh great and wonderful college football fans, but before we get into the games, let’s take a moment for the deaths that have marred this season. Player deaths across the nation (Virginia, San Diego St, Mississippi St) and of course the unexpected death of the man who made the Air Raid offense popular, Mike Leach. I’m sure there are others I don’t know about, but as sports is an imitation of life, most of the time we equate “death” with a loss of a game. This year it seems the literal meaning was worse than previous years. Thoughts and prayers for those we lost, their families, and their teammates as we have no choice but to move forward.
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There are 3 games today, 2 bowls and 1 FCS semifinal. Let’s look at each in order (the summary is below). First with an early 11:30am kickoff (all times Eastern), we have the Bahamas Bowl in Nassau. While this is in no way a premier bowl, it’s in NASSAU!! Could be worse. The matchup is not the best either. Miami OH (6-6/100) is taking on UAB (6-6/97). The matchup is interesting but not in the RedHawks favor. Their Offensive Efficiency Ranking (OER) is just 72 (224th out of 261). The OER is a metric that looks at how well an offense scores. The calculation compares how many points a team scored to how many points are normally scored against that opponent. For example, if a team averages 25 points per game and their opponents normally give up 20 points per game, that team’s OER would be 25/20 or 125%. So, in MIAO’s case, for every 10 points an opponent gave up this season, they would only score 7.2. Meanwhile, UAB’s Defensive Efficiency Ranking (DER) is 128 (44th out of 261). The DER is a metric that looks at well a defense avoids giving up points. The calculation compares how many points a team allowed to how many points are normally scored by that opponent. For example, if a team gives up 20 points per game and their opponents normally score 25 points per game, that team’s DER would be 25/20 or 125%. So, in UAB’s case, for every 12.8 points an opponent normally scored, UAB gave up 10. UAB above average defense vs MIAO below average offense. How about the flip side. UAB’s OER is an average 102 (126th) while MIAO’s DER is an ok 104 (119th). Vegas has UAB -10.5 and while the GCR predicts a win, UAB 55.7%, it just doesn’t see the points lighting up the scoreboard on either side. MIAO to cover.
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At 3:00, we have the best early bowl with C-USA champion UTSA (11-2/20) taking on Sun Belt champion Troy (11-2/16) in the Cure Bowl played in Orlando. When UTSA has the ball, they will bring a high-powered offense with an OER of 133 (23rd out of 261) but will have to face a daunting Troy defense with a DER of 157 (14th). Strength against strength. When Troy is driving, they bring an average OER of 102 (124th) against a slightly above average UTSA DER of 112 (84th). Vegas thinks the UTSA offense will prevail -1.5 while the GCR thinks the Troy defense will hold: TROY 55.3%, meaning TROY will cover as well.
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The first FCS semifinal, at 7:00, has Incarnate Word (12-1/105) out of San Antonio invading North Dakota St (11-2/124), winner of the last two FCS championships. Last week IW won on the road 66-63 over previously undefeated Sacramento St. Now they have the opportunity to be a giant killer again. When IW has the ball, they bring an impressive OER of 162 (4th out of 261). The 66 was not an anomaly as they are averaging 53.0 points per game. They however are going to run into a defensive buzzsaw as the Bison’s DER is 169 (8th) as they give up just 17.4 points per game. Something has to give. When NDST has the ball, they bring an above average OER of 134 (26th) and will face an average IW defense (they did give up 63 to SAC) of 102 (126th). Can IW rack up enough offense to cover for the defense yet again? There is no Vegas line yet, but the GCR calculates that IW will win 57.5%. Should be fun to watch.
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That’s it for today. I’ll be back tomorrow to talk about the other FCS semifinal and the six bowl games. A shout out to my friend JW who is recovering from surgery – lots of football this weekend while you are lying around. Here is the summary of today’s games. Thanks for reading and sharing, G
| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| FCS Semifinals | December 16, 2022 | ||||||
| 12:00 | Incarnate Word (12-1/105) | SLAN (6-1) | North Dakota St (11-2/124) | MVFC (7-1) | NL | IW 57.5% | NL |
| Bahamas Bowl | Nassau | ||||||
| 11:30 | Miami OH (6-6/100) – N | MAC (4-4) | UAB (6-6/97) – N | C-USA (4-4) | UAB -10.5 | UAB 55.7% | MIAO |
| Cure Bowl | Orlando | ||||||
| 3:00 | UTSA (11-2/20) – N | C-USA (9-0) | Troy (11-2/16) – N | SUN (8-1) | UTSA -1.5 | TROY 55.3% | TROY |
