G’s Expectation or The Games of December 17th

Good morning and happy Saturday college football fans! I hope you had the opportunity to see the games yesterday. What a great start to the bowl season. In the Bahamas Bowl, Miami OH and UAB saw three lead changes in the 4th quarter with the Blazers stopping the RedHawks on the 2-yard line as time expired to hold on to a 24-20 win. Then in a matchup of two teams with 10-game winning streaks, Troy roared from a 12-point deficit to win 18-12 over UTSA in a thrilling game. That gives the GCR a 2-0 start both straight up and ATS. In the first FCS semifinal, North Dakota St stayed alive in a comeback game against Incarnate Word, 35-32 so the GCR missed that one. What a fun game! A deep interception iced it for the Bison who will play the winner of today’s game for the championship January 8th in Frisco, Texas.

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To keep track of winners/losers/conference records etc., I created 2 tables that I’ll update daily. Here’s the first one which is a listing of teams by conference, who won, lost, and still waiting to play.

Conference	Winners	Losers	Remaining
American (7)	—	—	Cincinnati, SMU, Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane
ACC (9)	—	—	Louisville, Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson
Big 12 (8)	—	—	Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU
Big Ten (9)	—	—	Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St
C-USA (6)	UAB	UTSA	Rice, North Texas, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee
Indies (5)	—	—	BYU, UCONN, Liberty, New Mexico St, Notre Dame
MAC (6)	—	Miami OH	E Michigan, Toledo, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio
MTW (7)	—	—	Fresno St, Boise St, San Jose St, Air Force, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming
Pac 12 (7)	—	—	Oregon St, Washington St, Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah
SEC (11)	—	—	Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU
Sun (7)	Troy	—	Southern Miss, Marshall, South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina

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Here’s the conference records for comparison. The “Exp Rec” column would be the conference’s record if the Vegas favorite won every game.

Conference	Record	Exp Rec	vs Power 5	vs Group 5	Favorite	Underdog	Vegas ATS	GCR S/U	GCR Cover
American (7)	0-0 (—)	4-3 (.571)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
ACC (9)	0-0 (—)	5-4 (.554)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
Big 12 (8)	0-0 (—)	2-6 (.250)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
Big Ten (9)	0-0 (—)	6-3 (.667)	0-0 (—)	—	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
C-USA (6)	1-1 (.500)	2-4 (.333)	—	1-1 (.500)	1-1 (.500)	0-0 (—)	0-2 (.000)	1-0 (1.000)	0-0 (—)
Indies (5)	0-0 (—)	1-4 (.200)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
MAC (6)	0-1 (.000)	2-4 (.333)	—	0-1 (.000)	0-0 (—)	0-1 (0500)	1-0 (1.000)	0-0 (—)	1-0 (1.000)
MTW (7)	0-0 (—)	5-2 (.714)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
Pac 12 (7)	0-0 (—)	5-2 (.714)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
SEC (11)	0-0 (—)	5-6 (.455)	0-0 (—)	—	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)	0-0 (—)
Sun (7)	1-0 (1.000)	4-3 (.571)	—	1-0 (1.000)	0-0 (—)	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)	1-0 (1.000)
Total	2	41-41	0-0 (—)	2-2 (.500)	1-1 (.500)	1-1 (.500)	2-2 (.500)	2-0 (1.000)	2-0 (1.000)

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Today we have a wonderful set of games with 6 bowls and the second FCS semifinal. In time order (all times Eastern), we start with the Fenway Bowl in Boston (should be nice and chilly) with Cincinnati (9-3/36) taking on Louisville (7-5/34) at 11:00am. These teams are very evenly matched up. CIN’s OER is 106 (109th out of 261) while LOU’s OER is 111 (92nd). CIN’s DER is 141 (27th) while LOU’s is 144 (24th). Meh offenses and elite defenses should produce a low-scoring game, but a close one. Vegas likes Louisville -2.5, but the GCR thinks Cincinnati will win outright 64.1% and cover.

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Next up, at 2:30, is the inaugural Las Vegas Bowl pitting the SEC and the Pac-12 against each other. This year, I’m afraid is a mismatch and what I expect will be the first bowl blow-out this year. Florida (6-6/45) will take on Oregon St (9-3/19) and the difference in this game will be defense. Florida’s OER is a decent 122 (52nd) and will face an elite ORST DER of 148 (20th) while ORST has an OER of 120 (62nd) vs a ho-hum FLA DER of 108 (97th). Vegas has ORST -8.0 and the GCR has the Beavers to win 80.3% and to cover easily.

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At 3:30, we travel to the Pacific Ocean to enjoy the Jimmy Kimmel Live LA Bowl (yes, that’s the name) which pits Washington St (7-5/58) against Fresno St (9-4/47). Fresno St who won the Mountain West Conference will bring a better than average offense with an OER of 118 (71st) against an elite WAST defense with a DER of 138 (30th). On the flip side, WAST has an average offense with an OER of 103 (120th) vs an above average defense with a DER of 121 (63rd). Should be another hard-fought close game. Vegas has FRST -4.0 and the GCR agrees 63.1% and to cover.

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At 4:00, the second FCS semifinal has Montana St (12-1/108) invading South Dakota St (12-1/118) for the right to play North Dakota St in Frisco. The GCR likes Montana St to win 56.1% despite a slight mismatch. When MTST has the ball, it’s power on power – OER of 152 (7th) vs DER of 169 (8th), but when SDKS has the ball, the OER is 133 (27th) vs a DER of 107 (105th). Something underneath all of that makes the Bobcats a good candidate for an upset over AP ranked #1 South Dakota St.

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Back to the FBS at 5:45 when Rice (5-7/110) and Southern Miss (6-6/88) meet in Mobile for the Lending Tree Bowl. Rice is the APR winner for the 5-7 teams and good luck to both of these teams. Vegas has SMIS -6.5 and the GCR agrees 57.6% but Rice should cover.

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Tonight at 7:30, in Albuquerque’s New Mexico Bowl, SMU (7-5/70) takes on BYU (7-5/78). It was a really disappointing season for BYU who were expected to have another monster season, but here they are. Both teams are pretty solid on offense with OERs of 135 (22nd) for SMU and 114 (83rd) for BYU, but not so much on defense with respective DERs of 91 (181st) and 96 (154th). I expect a ton of points but a close game. Vegas has SMU -4.0 and the GCR agrees 55.0% but BYU should cover.

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Tonight’s finale, at 9:15, pits North Texas (7-6/94) and Boise St (9-4/50) in the Frisco Bowl. Both teams lost their conference championships so are looking for redemption. On offense, NTEX has a good OER of 117 (72nd) and will face an elite DER of 134 (36th). When Boise St has the ball, they bring a similar OER of 118 (70th), but only has to face a DER of 96 (151st). Vegas has BOST -10.5, the GCR agrees 67.4% and to cover.

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That’s it for today. There are no games tomorrow so we will meet back on Monday to do this all over again. Below is the summary of today’s games. Happy watching and thanks for reading and sharing, G

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Time	Away	Conf Rec	Home	Conf Rec	Vegas	GCR	To Cover
			FCS Semifinals	December 17, 2022
4:00	Montana St (12-1/108)	BSKY (9-0)	South Dakota St (12-1/118)	MVFC (8-0)	NL	MTST 56.1%	NL
			Fenway Bowl	Boston
11:00	Cincinnati (9-3/36) – N	AAC (6-2)	Louisville (7-5/34) – N	ACC (4-4)	LOU -2.5	CIN 64.1%	CIN
			Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas
2:30	Florida (6-6/45) – N	SEC (3-5)	Oregon St (9-3/19) – N	P12 (6-3)	ORST -8.0	ORST 80.3%	ORST
			Jimmy Kimmel Bowl	Los Angeles
3:30	Washington St (7-5/58) – N	P12 (4-5)	Fresno St (9-4/47) – N	MWC (8-1)	FRST -4.0	FRST 63.1%	FRST
			Lending Tree	Mobile
5:45	Rice (5-7/110) – N	CUSA (3-5)	Southern Miss (6-6/88) – N	SUN (4-4)	SMIS -6.5	SMIS 57.6%	RICE
			New Mexico	Albuquerque
7:30	SMU (7-5/70) – N	AAC (5-3)	BYU (7-5/78) – N	IND (0-2)	SMU -4.0	SMU 55.0%	BYU
			Frisco Bowl	Frisco, TX
9:15	North Texas (7-6/94) – N	CUSA (6-3)	Boise St (9-4/50) – N	MWC (8-1)	BOST -10.5	BOST 67.4%	BOST