Happy Friday college football fans. We had a good game to watch last night as Air Force ran (and occasionally passed) over Baylor, 30-15 in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Falcons ground game ate up more than 40 minutes of the clock and Baylor just couldn’t find the answer. Here is the updated winners/losers chart:
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Cincinnati, SMU | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane | |
| ACC (9) | Louisville | Wake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor | Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | ||
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | Middle Tennessee |
| Indies (5) | BYU | UCONN, Liberty | New Mexico St, Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo | Miami OH | Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St | San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida | Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama | Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina |
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And the detail behind those wins and losses:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 0-2 (.000) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) | 0-2 (.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 1-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-1 (000) | 2-6 (.250) | 0-0 | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-0 | 0-1 (000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten (9) | 0-0 | 6-3 (.667) | 0-0 | — | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 2-3 (.400) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-3 (.400) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-2 (.667) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (.000) |
| Indies (5) | 1-2 (.333) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 1-2 (.333) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 2-1 (.667) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 0-1 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) |
| MWC (7) | 3-1 (.750) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-2 (.333) | 3-0 (1.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-1 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-1 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-1 (.750) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-1 (.750) | 2-1 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Total | 13 | 41-41 | 2-3 (.400) | 11-10 (.524) | 8-5 (.615) | 5-8 (.385) | 5-8 (.385) | 9-4 (.692) | 8-5 (.615) |
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We have two games today starting with the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA kicking off at 3:00 (all times Eastern). Louisiana (6-6/88) of the Sun Belt had a bit off down year but will try to salvage a winning season against Houston (7-5/76) of the American. Like the rest of the country, it’s going to be cold and that could have an impact. Neither team is traveling very far to play this game. But when the Cajuns have the ball, they bring an OER of 104 (good for 111th int he country), meaning they score 10.4 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a Houston defense with a DER of 92 (173rd) meaning they give up 10 points for every 9.2 points their opponents normally score. Average vs near average. On the flip side, we have a very good Houston OER of 124 (47th) facing a very good Louisiana DER of 122 (61st). Strength vs strength. This one should be really close. Vegas has Houston -7.0 and GCR agrees the Cougars will win 58.9%, but Louisiana will cover.
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At 6:30 tonight, in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa, Wake Forest (7-5/38) of the ACC will tackle Missouri (6-6/60) of the SEC. Both teams had up and down seasons but get to play in the pirate bowl which is kind of cool. Similar to the first game, when the Demon Deacons have the ball, their OER of 145 (12th) will push against Missouri’s DER of 122 (62nd) while the Tigers’ average OER of 99 (142nd) will face an average Wake DER of 95 (159th). I think it will be close as well, but not as close as Vegas. Vegas has Wake Forest -2.0 while the GCR has Wake 60.3% and to cover.
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That’s it for today. Stay warm out there and enjoy the games. G
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| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 23, 2022 | Independence Bowl | Shreveport, LA | |||||
| 3:00 | Louisiana (6-6/88) | SUN (4-4) | Houston (7-5/76) | AAC (5-3) | HOU -7.0 | HOU 58.9% | LAU |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Tampa | ||||||
| 6:30 | Wake Forest (7-5/38) | ACC (3-5) | Missouri (6-6/60) | SEC (3-5) | WF -2.0 | WF 60.3% | WF |
