Welcome to the second half of bowl season, at least in number of games. As of last night, 21 FBS bowls are over and done with and 21 (including the championship game) remain. The games tend to ratchet up in intensity starting today and we have lots a great football ahead. Let’s recap yesterday’s games first. The Camellia Bowl was a tight one and the only one for which the GCR picked the cover correctly, with Buffalo topping Ga Southern 23-21. Vegas 0-1, GCR 1-0, Cover 1-0. The Eagles never gave up and fought back hard, but simply ran out of time. In the First Responder Bowl, Memphis demolished Utah St 38-10 in a game that was never close or, honestly, that interesting. The Aggies never could get their game going. Vegas 1-1, GCR 2-0, Cover 1-1. In the Birmingham Bowl, the one I thought was going to be the most entertaining, fireworks were plentiful as East Carolina ripped Coastal Carolina 53-29. The Sun Belt started 3-0 in bowl games before dropping the last 4 to finish a disappointing 3-4. Vegas 2-1, GCR 2-1, Cover 1-2. We closed last night with the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in a very late, but very exciting game when Wisconsin edged Oklahoma St 24-17. The Big Ten finally joined the fray and started with a big win. Vegas 3-1, GCR 2-2, Cover 1-3. Not a good day for the GCR at all. But today’s a different, and we hope, better day. Here is the updated winners/losers list.
| Conference | Winners | Losers | Remaining |
| American (7) | Houston, Memphis, East Carolina | Cincinnati, SMU | UCF, Tulane |
| ACC (9) | Louisville, Wake Forest | Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson | |
| Big 12 (8) | Baylor, Oklahoma St | Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU | |
| Big Ten (9) | Wisconsin | Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St | |
| C-USA (6) | UAB, W Kentucky, Middle Tennessee | UTSA, Rice, North Texas | — |
| Indies (5) | BYU, New Mexico St | UCONN, Liberty | Notre Dame |
| MAC (6) | E Michigan, Toledo, Buffalo | Miami OH, Bowling Green | Ohio |
| MWC (7) | Fresno St, Boise St, Air Force | San Jose St, San Diego St, Utah St | Wyoming |
| Pac 12 (7) | Oregon St | Washington St | Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah |
| SEC (11) | Florida, Missouri | Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU | |
| Sun (7) | Troy, Southern Miss, Marshall | South Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina | — |
…..
And the detail behind those winners/losers:
| Conference | Record | Exp Rec | vs Power 5 | vs Group 5 | Favorite | Underdog | Vegas ATS | GCR S/U | GCR Cover |
| American (7) | 3-2 (.600) | 4-3 (.571) | 0-1 (.000) | 3-1 (.750) | 3-1 (.750) | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1-1 (.667) | 2-2 (.500 | 0-1 (.000) |
| ACC (9) | 2-0 (1.000) | 5-4 (.554) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 2-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| Big 12 (8) | 0-2 (000) | 2-6 (.250) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) | 0-1 (000) |
| Big Ten (9) | 1-0 (1.000) | 6-3 (.667) | 1-0 (1.000) | — | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA (6) | 3-3 (.500) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-3 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-2 (.500) | 0-2 (.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-1 (.500) |
| Indies (5) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-4 (.200) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 2-2 (.500) | 0-0 | 0-1 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) |
| MAC (6) | 3-2 (.600) | 2-4 (.333) | — | 3-2 (.600) | 1-1 (.500) | 2-1 (.667) | 0-2 (.000) | 2-1 (.667) | 3-1 (.750) |
| MWC (7) | 3-3 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 2-0 (1.000) | 1-3 (.250) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-1 (.500) | 1-3 (.2503) | 3-1 (.750) | 2-2 (.500) |
| Pac 12 (7) | 1-1 (.500) | 5-2 (.714) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 0-1 (000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) | 1-0 (1.000) |
| SEC (11) | 0-2 (000) | 5-6 (.455) | 0-2 (000) | — | 0-0 | 0-2 (000) | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sun (7) | 3-4 (.429) | 4-3 (.571) | — | 3-4 (.429) | 2-2 (.500) | 1-2 (.500) | 2-2 (.667) | 3-2 (.600) | 1-2-1 (.333) |
| Total | 21 | 41-41 | 5-4 (.556) | 16-17 (.485) | 13-8 (.619) | 8-13 (.381) | 9-11-1 (.450) | 13-8 (.619) | 11-9-1 (.550) |
…..
Once again, we have four games today starting at 2:00 (all times Eastern) when the Military Bowl kicks off in Annapolis, Maryland. UCF (9-4/49), runner up in the American to TCU, faces Duke (8-4/43) of the ACC. This game has points and points written all over it. First, when the Knights have the ball, they bring a high-powered offense with an OER of 128 (36th out of 261). That means they score 12.8 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They face a much more pedestrian Duke defense with a DER of 108 (95th). That means they give up 10 points for every 10.8 points their opponents normally score. On the other hand, the Blue Devils have an OER of 119 (67th) against, generally, better competition vs a UCF DER of 124 (57th). I expect a high-scoring game in which Duke prevails 58.1%. Vegas agrees with Duke -3.0 and the Blue Devils should cover.
…..
Our second game, at 5:30, the Liberty Bowl, almost didn’t happen because of 22 burst water main pipes in Memphis. But they seem to have everything worked out so Kansas (6-6/52) and Arkansas (6-6/55) can play. Kansas was the Cinderella of college football with a surprising 5-0 start before dropping 6 of the last 7. Arkansas had SEC West hopes and started 3-0 before dropping the next 3 and limping to a .500 finish. Both of these teams really want/need this win. When the Jayhawks are driving, they have an OER of 127 (38th) vs a Razorback DER of 104 (118th). When Arkansas has the pigskin, they bring an OER of 125 (44th) vs a Kansas DER of 94 (163rd). In another high-scoring game, Vegas has Arkansas -2.5 and the GCR agrees 55.0% and to cover.
…..
Later tonight, from San Diego, Oregon (9-3/17) takes on UNC (9-4/27) in the Holiday Bowl. Oregon just missed out on the Pac-12 championship game and UNC lost the ACC championship to Clemson. On offense, the Ducks have an OER of 139 (19th) and will be facing a below average DER of 89 (188th). When the Tar Heels are driving, they bring an explosive offense that will keep them in the game with an OER 142 (14th) vs an Oregon DER of 111 (89th). Vegas likes Oregon -13.0 and the GCR agrees the Ducks will win 60.2%, but UNC will cover. The game will start at 8:00.
…..
Our final game tonight, kicking off at 9:00, pits Texas Tech (7-5/42) and Mississippi (8-4/26) in the Texas Bowl in Houston. This will be straight up punch mouth football and yet another high-scoring extravaganza. Texas Tech will bring a good OER of 123 (47th) which faces a decent Rebel DER of 116 (74th) while Mississippi’s high-powered offense brings an OER of 132 (27th) against an average Red Raider DER of 104 (121st). Vegas likes Mississippi -3.5, and the GCR agrees 64.3% and to cover.
…..
That’s it for today. The summary is below. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G
…..
| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| December 28, 2022 | Military Bowl | Annapolis, MD | |||||
| 2:00 | UCF (9-4/49) | AAC (6-3) | Duke (8-4/43) | ACC (5-3) | DUKE -3.0 | DUKE 58.1% | DUKE |
| Liberty Bowl | Memphis | ||||||
| 5:30 | Kansas (6-6/52) | B12 (3-6) | Arkansas (6-6/55) | SEC (3-5) | ARK -2.5 | ARK 55.0% | ARK |
| Holiday Bowl | San Diego | ||||||
| 8:00 | Oregon (9-3/17) | P12 (7-2) | UNC (9-4/27) | ACC (6-3) | ORE -13.0 | ORE 60.2% | UNC |
| Texas Bowl | Houston | ||||||
| 9:00 | Texas Tech (7-5/42) | B12 (5-4) | Mississippi (8-4/26) | SEC (4-4) | MISS -3.5 | MISS 64.4% | MISS |
