G’s Expectation or What to Watch Championship Week
Happy Friday of a limited, but all-important, set of games this week. Ok, not all of them are championship games, but all are important. Akron and Buffalo are underway right now in a makeup game with Buffalo needing the win to go 6-6 to get a bowl game. There are currently 80 spots filled out of 82 available. If BUFF comes back (they are down 16-10 with 30 seconds to go in the first half), they get spot 81. New Mexico St (also 5-6) added FCS Valparaiso to their schedule late (their game vs San Jose St was cancelled earlier in the season). While a victory would give them 6 wins, the rules state only one FCS win counts – we’ll see what happens. The rest of the FBS games are conference championships. Most of the FCS games are playoffs except for the Jackson St/Southern game which is the SWAC championship with the winner facing NC Central in the Celebration Bowl.
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Speaking of bowls, amid the massive amounts of speculation, 2 of them are actually set. Miami OH of the MAC will face UAB of Conference-USA in the Bahamas Bowl (Nassau) on 12/16 at 11:30am (all times Eastern). We also know that Middle Tennessee (C-USA) will combat San Diego St (Mountain West) in Honolulu for the Hawaii Bowl 12/24 at 8:00. More on these and all bowl games as well as a reminder of how the GCR predicts and reports bowl games coming soon.
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Speaking of predictions, last week was exceptionally good for the GCR when it came to picking the straight up winner. FBS games were 46-17 (.730) while the FCS games (mostly playoffs) were just 5-5 (.500) given us a 51-22 (.699) for the week. For the year: FBS (445-199, .691), FCS (365-173, .678), ALL (810-372, .685). However, the GCR had its worst week against the spread this season. If a bettor put his/her money on the Vegas favorite every game last week, s/he would have been right 24 times, wrong 38 times, and Alabama/Auburn was a push at -22.0. That’s a winning pct of .387 and takes the Vegas favorite to 197-250 (.441) for the year. The GCR began 9-19 last week ATS but rebounded to finish 31-31 (.500) bringing the year to 239-208 (.535).
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Without further ado, here are the picks for this week’s critical games. Have a great weekend and thanks, G
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| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| Atlantic Coast Conference | Power 5 | ||||||
| 8:00 | Clemson (10-2/9) – N | ACC (8-0) | UNC (9-3/18) – N | ACC (6-2) | CLEM -7.5 | CLEM 69.7% | CLEM |
| Big 12 Conference | Power 5 | ||||||
| 12:00 | Kansas St (9-3/11) – N | B12 (7-2) | TCU (12-0/3) – N | B12 (9-0) | TCU -1.5 | TCU 99.9% | TCU |
| Big Ten Conference | Power 5 | ||||||
| 8:00 | Purdue (8-4/32) – N | B1G (6-3) | Michigan (12-0/2) – N | B1G (9-0) | MICH -16.5 | MICH 99.9% | MICH |
| Pac 12 Conference | Power 5 | ||||||
| FRI | Utah (9-3/20) – N | P12 (7-2) | Southern Cal (11-1/5) – N | P12 (8-1) | SCAL -3.0 | SCAL 91.5% | SCAL |
| Southeastern Conference | Power 5 | ||||||
| 4:00 | LSU (9-3/14) – N | SEC (6-2) | Georgia (12-0/1) – N | SEC (8-0) | GEO -17.5 | GEO 99.9% | GEO |
| American Athletic Conference | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 4:00 | UCF (9-3/40) | AAC (6-2) | Tulane (10-2/22) | AAC (7-1) | TULN -3.5 | TULN 67.6% | TULN |
| Conference USA | Group of 5 | ||||||
| FRI | North Texas (7-5/88) | CUSA (6-2) | UTSA (10-2/23) | CUSA (8-0) | UTSA -8.0 | UTSA 79.9% | UTSA |
| Mid American Conference | Group of 5 | ||||||
| FRI | Akron (2-9/125) | MAC (1-6) | Buffalo (5-6/104) | MAC (4-3) | BUFF -11.5 | BUFF 58.3% | AKR |
| 12:00 | Toledo (7-5/91) – N | MAC (5-3) | Ohio (9-3/51) – N | MAC (7-1) | TOL -3.0 | OHIO 67.4% | OHIO |
| Mountain West Conference | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 4:00 | Fresno St (8-4/57) | MWC (7-1) | Boise St (9-3/33) | MWC (8-0) | BOST -3.0 | BOST 64.4% | BOST |
| Sun Belt Conference | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 12:00 | Coastal Carolina (9-2/35) | SUN (6-1) | Troy (10-2/21) | SUN (7-1) | TROY -8.5 | TROY 63.0% | TROY |
| Sun Belt Conference | Group of 5 | ||||||
| 3:00 | Valparaiso (5-6/212) | PFL (4-4) | New Mexico St (5-6/146) | IND (2-0) | NL | NMST 56.9% | NL |
| Southwestern Athletic Conf | FCS | ||||||
| 4:00 | Southern (7-4/176) | SWAC (5-3) | Jackson St (11-0/85) | SWAC (8-0) | JACK -17.5 | JACK 68.6% | SOUT |
| FCS Playoffs Round 2 | |||||||
| 12:00 | New Hampshire (9-3/161) | CAA (7-1) | 8) Holy Cross (11-0/96) | PAT (6-0) | NL | HC 65.1% | NL |
| 2:00 | Furman (10-2/131) | SoCon (7-1) | 7) Incarnate Word (10-1/111) | SLAN (6-1) | NL | IW 58.3% | NL |
| 2:00 | Gardner Webb (7-5/169) | BSO (5-0) | 5) William & Mary (10-1/117) | CAA (7-1) | NL | W&M 62.6% | NL |
| 3:00 | Delaware (8-4/157) | CAA (4-4) | 1) South Dakota St (10-1/129) | MVFC (8-0) | NL | SDKS 59.5% | NL |
| 3:00 | Weber St (10-2/132) | BSKY (6-2) | 4) Montana St (10-1/121) | MVFC (8-0) | NL | MTST 56.7% | NL |
| 3:00 | SELA (9-3/151) | SLAN (5-1) | 6) Samford (10-1/122) | SoCon (8-0) | NL | SAM 59.0% | NL |
| 3:30 | Montana (8-4/158) | BSKY (4-4) | 3) North Dakota St (9-2/138) | MVFC (7-1) | NL | NDST 58.7% | NL |
| 5:00 | Richmond (9-3/153) | CAA (6-2) | 2) Sacramento St (11-0/102) | BSKY (8-4) | NL | SAC 62.9% | NL |
