And we are back for yet another week, oh college football fans, and MACNation is already underway. As I begin this post, Toledo 5-5 (110) is up 14-6 at Ohio 3-7 (162) at halftime, W Michigan 6-4 (68) is winning 7-0 at E Michigan 6-4 (98) with 10:36 in the 2nd, and Bowling Green 3-7 (164) is besting Miami OH 5-5 (106) 7-0 with 7:11 to go in the 1st.
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Last week was pretty good in the GCR predictions (this week’s for all games are at the bottom of the post). At 45-18 (.714) for FBS games and 44-16 (.733) in the FCS, the GCR totaled 89 correct predictions against 34 incorrect for a .724 win rate. Much better than the last few weeks. The six upset picks were a successful 4-2 (also 4-2 against the spread). There are 6 more this week (including the W/E Michigan game tonight) and they are highlighted in yellow below. Speaking of E Michigan, they just scored a FG with 7:07 in the half now down 7-3. Miami OH scored a touchdown, but the extra point was blocked so they remain down 7-6 with 4:29 in the 1st.
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There are 12 games before Saturday and the best one represents the Mountain West: Air Force 7-3 (55) at Nevada 7-3 (48) with a kickoff Friday at 9:00 (all times Eastern). Both teams are tied for second in their respective divisions with 2 conference losses and are looking to ensure bowl representation. Nevada is favored by Vegas -2.0, and the GCR agrees with a close game NEV 55%. It should be a full four quarter game where a single dropped pass, penalty, or turnover could alter the game.
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There are 2 massive games with noon kickoffs on Saturday. Representing the ACC in this week’s post, Wake Forest 9-1 (8) invades Clemson 7-3 (24) with a chance to punch their ticket to Charlotte with a win. Death Valley East is a tough place to win (all 3 Tiger losses were away from home). Pressure is on both teams for sure. It’s strength on strength: The Demon Deacons are 3rd (160) in Offensive Efficiency scoring 16 points for every 10 their opponents normally allow while Clemson is 4th (192) in Defensive Efficiency allowing 10 points for every 19.2 an opponent normally scores. Vegas likes the Tigers at home -4.0, but in one of the six, Wake Forest proves they own the Atlantic 71%. If you don’t like that game, check out the Big 10’s showing as Michigan St 9-1 (9) faces Ohio St 9-1 (4). Ohio St is perfect in the Big 10 while the Spartans were upset by Purdue (21) a couple of weeks ago. This game looks like the Buckeyes all the way – #1 offensive efficiency (181) vs just a 121 MIST defensive efficiency (75th). I think it may be closer than Vegas thinks (OHST -19.0), but Ohio St (56%) will go into a winner take all next week at Michigan (2).
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E Michigan added a FG and now down just 7-6 1:09 in the second. Miami OH scored again and are now up 13-7 with 11:31 in the half. Ohio seems to be scoring 3 at a time down 14-9 with 6:33 in the 3rd.
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The early afternoon games also fall into 1 per conference. All starting at 3:30, let’s look at Arkansas 7-3 (25) at Alabama 9-1 (6). There is a scenario in which the SEC West ends up in a 6-way tie at 5-3 in the conference. The first thing that has to happen is for the Razorbacks to upset the Tide. A win by the Tide not only puts an end to such a fantasy but finalize the UGA (1)/BAMA matchup in Atlanta. Vegas doesn’t think it will be close with Bama -20.5 and the GCR agrees in principle: Bama 75%. Representing the American, SMU 8-2 (34) travels to Cincinnati 10-0 (7) in what could be a huge boost in SOS for the Bearcats. Vegas sees the closeness of these two teams with CIN -11.0 and the GCR agrees 75%. Even Conference USA gets a VIG (very important game) this week as UTSA 10-0 (11) hosts 7-3 (53) UAB. The winner has the tie-breaker in the West, probably facing W Kentucky (70) in the championship game. Vegas sees a close game UTSA -4.5, but the GCR sees the Roadrunners blazing a big win 83%.
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Toledo is scoring 7 at a time and now leads Ohio 21-9. W/E Michigan are at the half with W up 7-6.
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The evening best games start early in the Big 12 when Baylor 8-2 (14) travels to Kansas St 7-3 (26). The Bears, coming off of a big upset of Oklahoma (12), have a chance to play the winner of next week’s Oklahoma/Oklahoma St (5) game for the Big 12 title. The Wildcats are trying to maintain 4th in the conference for good bowl swag. Kicking off at 5:30, Vegas has this game as a pick. Hard fought? Yes. Close game? Yes. The GCR does not settle for picks and Baylor will pull this game off 62%. The final best game pick starts at 7:30 and comes from the Pac 12. Oregon 9-1 (10) invades Utah 7-3 (29) in what is most likely a pre-match of the Pac-12 championship. Both teams have just a single conference loss and can clinch their respective divisions with a win. Vegas thinks the Utes have the advantage as home -3.0, but in one of the six, the Ducks sneak out with a win 71% of the time.
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That’s it for this week except to say I am going to the Auburn 6-4 (33)/South Carolina 5-5 (67) game with one of my best friends. The game is at 7:00 and I don’t expect I will get home until late, so expect a much later than normal G’s Evaluation. By the way, the reason I try to get that out early is just to show there is no influence with polls. Let’s suffice to say there isn’t and I can get some sleep Sunday morning. Oh yeah, Gamecock fan that I am, I do have to report that Vegas has the War Tigers -7.5 and I have the Fighting Male Chickens losing 60%.
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As I close, Toledo is running away on Ohio 28-9 at the end of the 3rd (Ohio is in the red zone), W/E Michigan are in the 3rd (14:06) and are still 7-6, and Miami OH is still beating Bowling Green 13-7 with 2:53 in the half. Thank you for reading and if you like what you’re reading, please share with others. If you don’t, message me as I’m always looking for ways to improve. G
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