Welcome to another great week of college football. I know, the NFL is kicking off tonight and the Buffalo/Rams game is really good (17-10 7:05 in the 3rd). There is one college game happening right now, also in the 3rd (9:48) and also close (21-21) with Tennessee Martin (1-0/160) invading Missouri St (1-0/147). I know I would like to start predicting games, but I can’t until both teams have at least two decisions. There is one game that fits the bill and, of course, it’s between two 0-2 teams. New Mexico St (0-2/97) will make the short trip to UTEP (0-2/135) for a late game Saturday. Vegas has the line UTEP-17.0 and the GCR picks UTEP to win, but only 55% or -4.0. Do what you’d like with that. I don’t encourage gambling especially when expecting teenagers to perform as we expect them to. There is a full slate (listed at the end) but some games really stick out.
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Friday, Louisville (0-1/82) will keep the ACC trend of away games at Group of 5 opponents by going to Orlando to take on UCF (1-0/66). Last week the ACC was 2-1 in these types of game with a 2-point win, a 1-point win, and a 3-point loss. I’m glad the ACC still plays these, but it’s not helping them by losing or barely winning. Vegas puts UCF as 5.5-point favorites. I wonder how many more years the conference keeps these schedules.
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The early games on Saturday that I’ll have my eye on are Wake Forest (1-0/41) at Vanderbilt (2-0/24). Yes, Kansas, Duke, and Vanderbilt are a combined 4-0 this season (7-29 last season). Wake had a dream season last year but lost their QB for the year. How deep can they go this year? Is Vandy’s offense for real? Wake has more to lose in this game, expectations wise, but Vandy is playing with a chip (albeit not a really big one, because, you know, it’s Vanderbilt) on its shoulder. I like this game and think it will be closer than WAKE -13.0. The big daddy of early games, also at noon (all times Eastern), is Alabama (1-0/1) heading to Austin to take on Texas (1-0/10). Even with home field advantage, I don’t see Texas as a major upset candidate here (Vegas has BAMA -20.0, but can they stay within 3 scores with their offensive potential? I would be surprised if Bama doesn’t compete for the SEC, if not the national, title, but Texas often disappoints. Could this be their year? I think if they expect to compete with Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St this year, they have to have a better than expected showing this week. Let’s say Bama covers and Texas runs the table in the Big 12. Do the Longhorns get an invitation? Obviously, that would depend on a lot of things, but it is an interesting question. With the Pac 12 in trouble, playoff-wise, after week 1, the ACC not being overly impressive against the mid-majors, we have to think the Big 12 has a really good shot at getting a team in. If not, don’t be surprised if the pundits look back at this game. I think Bama covers and Texas disappoints again.
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The midday games have 3 that I’m really watching. The first is Colorado (0-1/93) at Air Force (1-0/75). Again, we have a P5 team at a G5 house favored to lose (AF -17.0), and this one isn’t expected to be close. The Buffalos are not expected to be a major player in the Pac 12, but after last week’s winless vs the P5, the Pac 12 at least won the G5 games. Not this time. Does anyone else feel like the Pac 12 is like watching a car crash? I mean, I want to look away, but just can’t help it. Speaking of the Pac 12 and it’s having to, you know, show up, Washington St (1-0/73) is invading Wisconsin (1-0/14) looking for that first P5 win. Vegas doesn’t think so at WISC -17.5. I suspect the first P5 win for the conference will be in the Southern Cal/Stanford game later on Saturday. One of them has to win, right? The 3rd game fits the theme so far today which is reputation. Tennessee (1-0/9) takes on Pittsburgh (1-0/48) in a game both need to win. Tennessee is looking for a chance to fight for the SEC East #2 spot while Pitt is looking to repeat as division and even conference champs. The Volunteers are favored on the road TENN -6.0 and I’m looking for a 4-quarter game.
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Tennessee Martin added a field goal, but Missouri St answered with a TD on 4th and 1 going up 28-24 with 10:09 to go. The Bills are trouncing the Rams 31-10 with 9:25 to go.
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The evening games were tough to choose. We have Kansas (1-0/37) at West Virginia (0-1/83). Can the Jayhawks upset a 13.5-point favorite on the road to tie last year’s win total or will the Mountaineers bounce back from a close loss to Pittsburgh? I’m not going to go so far as to say relevance in the Big 12 is at stake, but it’s an important game for both teams. In the SEC, Kentucky (1-0/18) travels to the Swamp to play Florida (1-0/56) fresh off the Vegas upset of Utah. Historically, the Wildcats don’t play the Gators well. But these boys in blue are in a fight with Florida and Tennessee for that 2nd SEC East spot. The loser of this game has a tough path to get there. The big question I have after week 1 is: is Florida really a good team or was Utah completely overrated? This game will help answer that. Vegas likes Florida in another close one FLA -6.0. Speaking of the Pac 12 (see, I just can’t help looking), Arizona St (1-0/27) will take on Oklahoma St (1-0/52). Not to beat the dead horse, but the Pac 12 is favored to lose all non-conference P5 games this week. Vegas sees the Cowboys -11.5. Is this the upset game that could turn things around?
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The game of the week, which isn’t until 10:15, is a story in itself. This time, it’s a Big 12 team going to a G5 (at least for one more year) to play a game – and are favored to lose! Baylor (1-0/34) takes on the BYU Cougars (1-0/46) who are favored by Vegas -3.0. I love the fact that they are playing especially since they will be conference opponents next year, but Baylor is expected to compete for the Big 12 title. If they lose, is that just another nail in the coffin? Don’t get me wrong: BYU was a great team last year and there’s no data to support it will be different this year. They are among the G5 squads capable of competing right away upon promotion. This game could set up a rivalry in the coming years. If Baylor has a Bearesque offensive show, this could be a blowout upset. Short of that, I suggest planning to stay up late before this one is won.
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That’s it for this episode. I’ve listed all of the games below. Happy watching! G
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| Time | Away | Home | Line | GCR |
| Thu | Tennessee Martin (1-0/160) | Missouri St (1-0/147) | MOST -14.0 | — |
| Fri | Louisville (0-1/82) | UCF (1-0/66) | UCF -5.5 | — |
| Fri | Boise St (0-1/115) | New Mexico (1-0/50) | BOST -17.0 | — |
| Fri | Assumption (N/A) | Merrimack (0-1/227) | NL | — |
| 12:00 | Wake Forest (1-0/41) | Vanderbilt (2-0/24) | WF -13.0 | — |
| 12:00 | Arkansas St (1-0/59) | Ohio St (1-0/23) | OHST -43.5 | — |
| 12:00 | Southern Miss (0-1/122) | Miami FL (1-0/38) | MIAF -26.0 | — |
| 12:00 | Ohio (1-0/68) | Penn St (1-0/43) | PSU -25.0 | — |
| 12:00 | UNC (2-0/45) | Georgia St (0-1/108) | UNC -7.5 | — |
| 12:00 | Alabama (1-0/1) | Texas (1-0/10) | BAMA -20.0 | — |
| 12:00 | Duke (1-0/3) | Northwestern (1-0/28) | NW -10.5 | — |
| 12:00 | W Illinois (0-1/233) | Minnesota (1-0/4) | NL | — |
| 12:00 | South Carolina (1-0/26) | Arkansas (1-0/55) | ARK -9.0 | — |
| 12:00 | UTSA (0-1/122) | Army (0-1/121) | UTSA -3.0 | — |
| 12:00 | Missouri (1-0/32) | Kansas St (1-0/15) | KSST -9.0 | — |
| 12:00 | Thomas More (NA) | Duquesne (0-2/182) | NL | — |
| 12:30 | Charleston Southern (0-1/240) | NC St (1-0/58) | NL | — |
| 1:00 | South Alabama (1-0/65) | C Michigan (0-1/110) | CMI -5.0 | — |
| 1:00 | VA Lynchburg (NA) | Presbyterian (0-1/250) | NL | — |
| 1:00 | Villanova (1-0/149) | Long Island (0-1/213) | NL | — |
| 1:00 | Colgate (0-1/197) | Maine (0-1/206) | NL | — |
| 1:00 | Post University (NA) | Stonehill (1-0/177) | NL | — |
| 1:00 | Fordham (1-0/155) | Monmouth (0-1/224) | NL | — |
| 1:30 | S Utah (1-0/139) | Utah (0-1/87) | NL | — |
| 1:30 | Bucknell (0-1/248) | VMI (0-1/186) | NL | — |
| 2:00 | Lafayette (1-0/131) | Temple (0-1/101) | NL | — |
| 2:00 | W Michigan (0-1/103) | Ball St (0-1/105) | WMI -6.0 | — |
| 2:00 | Dayton (1-0/168) | Youngstown St (1-0/156) | NL | — |
| 2:00 | Michigan Tech (NA) | St Thomas (0-1/237) | NL | — |
| 2:00 | Missouri Science & Tech (NA) | Drake (0-1/235) | NL | — |
| 2:30 | Marshall (1-0/60) | Notre Dame (0-1/86) | ND -20.0 | — |
| 3:00 | Morehead St (0-1/252) | Montana St (1-0/145) | NL | — |
| 3:30 | App St (0-1/79) | Texas A&M (1-0/17) | TAM -19.0 | — |
| 3:30 | Memphis (0-1/177) | Navy (0-1/162) | MEM -5.0 | — |
| 3:30 | Maryland (1-0/16) | Charlotte (0-2/159) | MD -27.5 | — |
| 3:30 | Colorado (0-1/93) | Air Force (1-0/75) | AF -17.0 | — |
| 3:30 | Tennessee (1-0/9) | Pittsburgh (1-0/48) | TENN -6.0 | — |
| 3:30 | Kennesaw St (0-1/245) | Cincinnati (0-1/111) | NL | — |
| 3:30 | Furman (1-0/141) | Clemson (1-0/5) | NL | — |
| 3:30 | Washington St (1-0/73) | Wisconsin (1-0/14) | WISC -17.5 | — |
| 3:30 | NC A&T (0-1/247) | North Dakota St (1-0/137) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | South Carolina St (0-1/202) | Bethune Cookman (0-1/196) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | Wagner (0-1/238) | Rutgers (1-0/49) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | Akron (1-0/80) | Michigan St (1-0/21) | MIST -34.5 | — |
| 4:00 | Norfolk St (0-1/211) | James Madison (1-0/33) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | E Kentucky (0-1/208) | Bowling Green (0-1/106) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | Iowa St (1-0/42) | Iowa (1-0/62) | IOWA -4.0 | — |
| 4:00 | Portland St (0-1/203) | Washington (1-0/30) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | Samford (1-0/167) | Georgia (1-0/2) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | UNLV (1-0/76) | California (1-0/57) | CAL -12.0 | — |
| 4:00 | Indiana St (1-0/170) | Purdue (0-1/92) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | Houston (1-0/74) | Texas Tech (1-0/35) | TXTC -3.5 | — |
| 4:00 | Middle Tennessee (0-1/119) | Colorado St (0-1/112) | COST -11.5 | — |
| 4:00 | Virginia (1-0/64) | Illinois (1-1/78) | ILL -4.5 | — |
| 4:00 | N Colorado (0-1/242) | Wyoming (1-1/129) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | Mississippi Valley (0-1/229) | Austin Peay (1-1/178) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | E Tennessee St (1-0/158) | Citadel (0-1/231) | NL | — |
| 4:00 | N Iowa (0-1/200) | North Dakota (0-1/219) | NL | — |
| 5:00 | San Diego (1-0/140) | Cal Poly (0-1/207) | NL | — |
| 5:00 | Lehigh (0-1/239) | Georgetown (1-0/136) | NL | — |
| 5:00 | Alabama St (0-1/210) | UCLA (1-0/22) | NL | — |
| 5:30 | Incarnate Word (1-0/148) | Nevada (2-0/39) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Robert Morris (0-1/246) | Miami OH (0-1/102) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Holy Cross (1-0/150) | Buffalo (0-1/108) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | SELA (0-1/201) | FAU (1-1/116) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Gardner Webb (1-0/172) | Coastal Carolina (1-0/71) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | UAB (1-0/51) | Liberty (1-0/72) | UAB -6.5 | — |
| 6:00 | Old Dominion (1-0/69) | East Carolina (0-1/118) | ECAR -13.0 | — |
| 6:00 | Kansas (1-0/37) | West Virginia (0-1/83) | WVU -13.5 | — |
| 6:00 | Sacred Heart (0-1/226) | C Connecticut (0-1/220) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Albany St (NA) | Florida A&M (0-2/183) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Elon (0-1/171) | Wofford (0-1/230) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Louisiana College (NA) | Stetson (1-0/175) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Tuskagee (NA) | Hampton (1-0/174) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | TUT (NA) | Butler (1-0/179) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Campbell (1-0/142) | William & Mary (1-0/128) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Winston Salem (NA) | NC Central (1-0/152) | NL | — |
| 6:00 | Rhode Island (1-0/138) | Byrant (0-1/212) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | C Arkansas (0-1/241) | Mississippi (1-0/19) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | N Illinois (1-0/84) | Tulsa (0-1/176) | TULS -6.5 | — |
| 7:00 | W Carolina (1-0/163) | Georgia Tech (0-1/91) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | E Michigan (1-0/81) | Louisiana (1-0/70) | ULL -11.5 | — |
| 7:00 | Steph F Austin (1-1/217) | LA Tech (0-1/113) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Alabama A&M (0-1/210) | Troy (0-1 (104) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Kentucky (1-0/18) | Florida (1-0/56) | FLA -6.0 | — |
| 7:00 | Alcorn St (0-1/251) | Tulane (1-0/40) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Howard (0-2/244) | South Florida (0-1/125) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Kent St (0-1/114) | Oklahoma (1-0/12) | OKLA -33.5 | — |
| 7:00 | Lamar (0-1/234) | SMU (1-0/13) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | FIU (1-0/89) | Texas St (0-1/77) | TXST -14.0 | — |
| 7:00 | Syracuse (1-0/6) | UCONN (1-1/127) | SYR -23.0 | — |
| 7:00 | UMASS (0-1/120) | Toledo (1-0/53) | TOL -28.0 | — |
| 7:00 | Weber St (1-0/154) | Utah St (1-1/98) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | TAM Commerce (1-0/161) | Tennessee Tech (0-1/185) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Morgan St (0-1/205) | Towson (1-0/173) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | UC Davis (0-1/187) | South Dakota St (0-1/195) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Jackson St (1-0/133) – N | Tennessee St (0-1/236) – N | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Jacksonville St (2-0/134) | Murray St (0-1/189) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Chattanooga (1-0/130) | E Illinois (0-1/215) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Barton (NA) | Davidson (0-1/218) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | SEMO (0-1/193) | S Illinois (0-1/221) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | North American (NA) | Ark Pine Bluff (1-0/180) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Lindenwood (0-0/UR) | Houston Baptist (1-0/164) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | N Arizona (0-1/191) | Sam Houston (0-1/197) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | New Hampshire (1-0/166) | Albany (0-1/188) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Virginia Wise (NA) | N Alabama (0-1/249) | NL | — |
| 7:00 | Northwestern St (0-1/225) – N | Grambling St (0-1/204) – N | NL | — |
| 7:30 | Texas Southern (0-1/243) | North Texas (1-1/124) | NL | — |
| 7:30 | Arizona St (1-0/27) | Oklahoma St (1-0/52) | OKST -11.5 | — |
| 7:30 | Southern (1-0/144) | LSU (0-1/61) | NL | — |
| 7:30 | McNeese (0-1/222) | Rice (0-1/99) | NL | — |
| 7:30 | Ga Southern (1-0/63) | Nebraska (1-1/94) | NEB -23.5 | — |
| 7:30 | Southern Cal (1-0/11) | Stanford (1-0/44) | SCAL -8.0 | — |
| 7:30 | San Jose St (1-0/85) | Auburn (1-0/47) | AUB -23.5 | — |
| 7:30 | Valparaiso (1-0/181) | Illinois St (0-1/190) | NL | — |
| 8:00 | Idaho St (0-1/214) | San Diego St (0-1/117) | NL | — |
| 8:00 | Idaho (0-1/199) | Indiana (1-0/29) | NL | — |
| 8:00 | Nicholls (0-1/216) | ULM (0-1/100) | NL | — |
| 8:00 | Tarleton (1-0/151) | TCU (1-0/8) | NL | — |
| 8:00 | Boston College (0-1/95) | Virginia Tech (0-1/96) | VT -3.0 | — |
| 8:00 | Hawaii (0-2/88) | Michigan (1-0/7) | MICH -52.0 | — |
| 8:00 | Prairie View (1-0/165) | Abilene Christian (1-0/153) | NL | — |
| 8:30 | E Washington (1-0/169) | Oregon (0-1/90) | NL | — |
| 9:00 | New Mexico St (0-2/97) | UTEP (0-2/135) | UTEP -17.0 | UTEP 55% (-4.0) |
| 9:00 | Chadron (NA) | Utah Tech (0-1/222) | NL | — |
| 10:15 | Baylor (1-0/34) | BYU (1-0/46) | BYU -3.0 | — |
| 10:30 | Oregon St (1-0/36) | Fresno St (1-0/67) | ORST -1.0 | — |
| 11:00 | Mississippi St (1-0/31) | Arizona (1-0/25) | MSST -10.5 | — |
Hey Robert,
I really like reading your blog. You must have not seen the update on Sam Hartman, the Wake Forest QB. He is cleared to play and will start tomorrow at Vandy. As a Wake Forest grad, I certainly think this game is not an automatic win even with Hartman back, but Hartman’s return does change the game and season view for the Deacons.
Have a great day.