G’s Explanation or How Do the Conferences Look after Week 1?
Earlier today I released the first GCR ranking of the season which is both fun and, frankly, a little silly. On the one hand it’s just one game. On the other hand, it’s 8.5-11% of the season. I expect a great deal of change in the coming weeks with some stability usually hitting in mid-October. But, after the Pac-12’s top teams fell, except for an expected drubbing of Rice, a conference comparison might be insightful even this early. I looked at the data for the FBS conferences Home/Away/Neutral records and vs the FBS/FCS. Here’s what I found, in alphabetical order:
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| Conference | Record | NC Record | Home | Away | Neutral | FBS | FCS |
| ACC | 12-4 .750 | 10-2 .833 | 8-1 .889 | 2-2 .500 | 2-1 .667 | 7-4 .636 | 5-0 |
| American | 4-7 .364 | 4-7 .364 | 2-3 .400 | 2-4 .333 | N/A | 3-6 .333 | 1-1 |
| Big 12 | 9-1 .900 | 9-1 .900 | 8-0 1.000 | 1-1 .500 | N/A | 4-1 .800 | 5-0 |
| Big Ten | 13-3 .813 | 10-0 1.000 | 10-1 .909 | 2-1 .667 | 1-1 .500 | 10-3 .769 | 3-0 |
| C-USA | 6-10 .375 | 4-8 .333 | 4-4 .500 | 2-6 .250 | N/A | 3-9 .250 | 3-0 |
| Indies | 3-6 .333 | 3-6 .333 | 1-1 .500 | 2-5 .714 | N/A | 2-6 .250 | 1-0 |
| MAC | 5-7 .417 | 5-7 .417 | 5-0 1.000 | 0-7 .000 | N/A | 1-7 .125 | 4-0 |
| MWC | 9-7 .563 | 9-3 .563 | 8-3 .727 | 1-4 .250 | N/A | 4-7 .364 | 5-0 |
| Pac 12 | 9-3 .750 | 9-3 .750 | 8-1 .889 | 1-1 .500 | 0-1 .000 | 5-3 .625 | 5-0 |
| SEC | 14-1 .933 | 14-1 .933 | 12-0 1.000 | 1-0 1.000 | 1-1 .500 | 11-1 .917 | 3-0 |
| Sun Belt | 8-6 .571 | 8-6 .571 | 8-2 .800 | 0-4 .000 | N/A | 3-6 .333 | 5-0 |
| Combined | 92-55 .625 | 85-48 .639 | 74-16 .822 | 14-35 .286 | 4-4 .500 | 53-53 | 39-1 |
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At first glance, the Pac 12 doesn’t look as bad as the press is making it out to be – 9-3, 8-1 at home. But dig a little deeper and we see that they were a mere 5-3 against the FBS. If we dig one more step down, they were 0-3 against other Power 5 teams: Utah lost at Florida 29-26, Oregon was demolished by Georgia in Atlanta 49-3, and Colorado was nearly tripled up at home by TCU 38-13. Last year, the conference struggled against G5 teams, particularly from the Mountain West, but this year they’ve kicked off a 5-0 start (UCLA-Bowling Green, Arizona-San Diego St, Southern Cal-Rice, Washington-Kent St, and Oregon St-Boise St) by an average 28.4 points. What this means is that the playoffs are still in play, BUT the conference champion (no divisions this year) must be undefeated. Otherwise, the SOS of the conference will be in question. Especially when this week Washington St travels to Wisconsin where it is currently a 17.5 underdog, Arizona St heads to Oklahoma St (+11.5), and Arizona hosts Mississippi St (+10.5). If Vegas is right, the conference will start 0-6 against Power 5 foes.
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The other seemingly important takeaway that is not as meaningful as it looks is the home field advantage we see in the records. The FBS was 74-16 at home and just 14-35 on the road. That sounds really important and would be if any Power 5 conferences played more than 3 non-conference P5 opponents. Except for the 2-1 record on the road against G5 teams, all of the other games had the “lower” league on the road. The MAC is a great example: 5-7 overall, 5-0 at home, 0-7 on the road, 0-7 vs P5 schools, 1-0 vs G5, and 4-0 vs FCS. It’s too early to make any inferences to this level of home advantage, but we’ll come back to it once conference games begin in earnest.
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That’s it for this week’s analysis. There is only one Thursday game (Tennesse Martin at Missouri St) this week as the NFL kicks off its season. Look for this week’s G’s Expectations Thursday as we get ready for the weekend! Thanks for reading. If you have suggestions for improvements or questions, please comment. If you like what you read, please share with others, G
