G’s Expectation or What to Watch in Week 5

College football is back for a new weekend and it’s a good one. In the new Quality of Game Metric I’m playing with this year, the best possible score is 3.00. That would indicate that every team is playing an opponent at the same tier (Power 5 vs Power 5, Group of 5 vs Group of 5, and FCS vs FCS). This week that number is 2.69 for the 118 games. Now that’s excitement.

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Tonight there are 3 games. First at 7:30 (all times Eastern) Middle Tennessee (1-3/99) is traveling to Bowling Green to play the Hilltoppers of W Kentucky (2-2/90). The Hilltoppers are my daughter’s favorite mascot (look him up if you’ve never seen him – it’s some kind of big red blob – pretty cool) and he/she/it will have a lot to celebrate as the GCR (and Vegas) think WKY will pull it out (although the Blue Raiders will keep it close). Also at 7:30, in fact they just kicked off, Temple (2-2/101) invades Tulsa (2-2/88), but the Oklahomans (not the official mascot) will prevail.

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The third game tonight doesn’t have anything close to season impacting importance. In fact, neither team is eligible to win the conference or play in a bowl game, but the two C-USA teams that were FCS teams last year are facing off at 8:00 tonight. Their initial FBS seasons could not be more different so far. Sam Houston (0-3/92) hosts Jacksonville St (3-1/79) and when the Bearkats have the ball, they bring the worst offense of any team in the country. The 10 points they’ve scored so far provide an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 17 (261st out of 261). OER is a measure that compare the points a team has scored to the points allowed by opponents. An OER of 140 would indicate a team scores 14.0 points for every 10.0 points their opponents allowed (including against them). Sam Houston’s OER of 17 means they score 1.7 points for every 10 points their opponents have allowed per game this season. That is…paltry. Unfortunately for them, the JAX Defensive Efficiency Rating (points allowed vs avg opponent’s points allowed) is 169 (28th). That means the Gamecocks give up 10.0 points for every 16.9 points their opponents normally score. On the flip side, Jacksonville St has a slightly below average OER of 96 (146th) vs the Sam Houston DER of 142 (53rd). Vegas has JAX-6.5 and the GCR agrees with a 72% probability of victory and to cover.

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To keep this theme going, Friday night at 10:15, Cincinnati (2-2/81) travels to Provo to take on BYU (3-1/44) in a Big 12 matchup. Last year, the Bearcats were competing in the American and the Cougars were an independent. Both of these teams lost their initial conference games and are looking for the first Power 5 victory. Both of the schools has an OER of 85 (CIN is 125th and BYU is 128th) and CIN has the advantage in DER (151 good for 39th vs 119 for 80th). Vegas has BYU-2.5 and, maybe because of the elevation (jk, the GCR doesn’t know that), the GCR agrees with a 65% probability to win. BYU covers.

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The game of the week, however, is between old foes who are facing each other for the last time on an annual basis. And it matters. At 3:30 on Saturday, Kansas (4-0/20) invades Texas (4-0/5). Later in the evening Oklahoma (4-0/3), the only other Big 12 undefeated team, will host Iowa St (2-2/69) and the Sooners should win that game. Assuming they do, the winner of the GOTW will be with them on the top of the mountain. I know the Big 12 is ready to get rid of Texas and Oklahoma, who are joining the SEC next season, so you have to know it really burns the rest of the conference up that they could both start 5-0. But first, they have to win this week. When the Jayhawks take the field, they bring an OER of 123 (67th) and will face a Longhorn DER of 220 (13th). Points may be hard to come by. When Texas is on offense, an OER of 144 (27th) will try to penetrate a Kansas DER of 115 (87th). I guess this helps explain why two 4-0 teams in the same conference can be ranked so far apart. Vegas loves the Longhorns-17.0 and the GCR agrees (78% to win and they will cover).

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As of right now, W Kentucky is leading 7-0 over Middle Tennessee with 6:11 to go in the first, Tulsa is leading Temple 7-3 with 3:02 in the first, and Jacksonville St and Sam Houston are underway. Here are all the games and predictions. Thanks for reading and sharing with others, G

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Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Vegas LineGCR to WinGCR to Cover
   ACC (14 teams)P5   
FRI 7:00Louisville (4-0/15)ACC (2-0)NC St (3-1/62)ACC (1-0)LOU-3.5LOU 84%LOU
12:00Clemson (2-2/50)ACC (0-2)Syracuse (4-0/13)ACC (0-0)CLEM-7.0SYR 76%SYR
2:00Virginia (0-4/40)ACC (0-1)Boston College (1-3/61)ACC (0-2)BC-3.5BC 54%BC
3:30Bowling Green (1-3/56)MAC (0-1)Georgia Tech (2-2/47)ACC (1-1)GT-22.5GT 67%BG
7:30Notre Dame (4-1/22)IND (0-0)Duke (4-0/9)ACC (1-0)ND-5.5DUKE 57%DUKE
8:00Pittsburgh (1-3/103)ACC (0-1)Virginia Tech (1-3/100)ACC (0-0)PITT-2.5VT 51%VT
Idle  Florida St (4-0/11), Miami FL (4-0/7), North Carolina (4-0/17), Wake Forest (3-1/54)    
   Big 12 (14 teams)P5   
FRI 10:15Cincinnati (2-2/81)B12 (0-1)BYU (3-1/44)B12 (0-1)BYU-2.5BYU 65%BYU
3:30Kansas (4-0/20)B12 (1-0)Texas (4-0/5)B12 (1-0)TEX-17.0TEX 78%TEX
3:30Houston (2-2/116)B12 (0-1)Texas Tech (1-3/58)B12 (0-1)TXTC-10.0TXTC 63%TXTC
3:30Baylor (1-3/66)B12 (0-1)UCF (3-1/43)B12 (0-1)UCF-11.5UCF 73%UCF
7:00Iowa St (2-2/69)B12 (1-0)Oklahoma (4-0/3)B12 (1-0)OKLA-20.0OKLA 93%OKLA
8:00West Virginia (3-1/45)B12 (1-0)TCU (3-1/49)B12 (1-0)TCU-11.5TCU 56%WVU
OOC  none    
Idle  Kansas St (3-1/27), Oklahoma St (2-2/119)    
   Big Ten (14 teams)P5   
12:00Penn St (4-0/1)B10 (2-0)Northwestern (2-2/52)B10 (1-1)PSU-26.0PSU>99%PSU
12:00Louisiana (3-1/104)SUN (0-1)Minnesota (2-2/59)B10 (1-1)MINN-12.5MINN 56%LAU
3:30Michigan (4-0/4)B10 (1-0)Nebraska (2-2/89)B10 (0-1)MICH-18.0MICH 88%MICH
3:30Indiana (2-2/64)B10 (0-1)Maryland (4-0/14)B10 (1-0)MARY-14.0MARY 82%MARY
3:30Illinois (2-2/41)B10 (0-1)Purdue (1-3/72)B10 (0-1)PUR-1.0ILL 57%ILL
3:30Wagner (2-2/226)NEC (2-0)Rutgers (3-1/33)B10 (1-1)NLRUTG 98%NL
7:30Michigan St (2-2/55)B10 (0-1)Iowa (3-1/42)B10 (0-1)IOWA-11.5IOWA 72%IOWA
OOC  none    
Idle  Ohio St (4-0/2), Wisconsin (4-1/36)    
   Pac 12 (12 teams)P5   
FRI 9:00Utah (4-0/10)P12 (1-0)Oregon St (3-1/38)P12 (0-1)ORST-3.5UTAH 56%UTAH
12:00Southern Cal (4-0/16)P12 (2-0)Colorado (3-1/26)P12 (0-1)SCAL-21.5SCAL 81%SCAL
3:00Arizona St (1-3/87)P12 (0-1)California (2-2/53)P12 (0-1)CAL-12.0CAL 58%AZST
6:30Oregon (4-0/6)P12 (1-0)Stanford (1-3/71)P12 (0-2)ORE-27.0ORE 96%ORE
10:00Washington (4-0/8)P12 (1-0)Arizona (3-1/57)P12 (1-0)WASH-18.0WASH 77%WASH
OOC  none    
Idle  UCLA (3-1/28), Washington St (4-0/18)    
   SEC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Florida (3-1/34)SEC (1-0)Kentucky (4-0/19)SEC (1-0)KENT-2.5KENT 63%KENT
12:00Texas A&M (3-1/23) – NSEC (1-0)Arkansas (2-2/75) – NSEC (0-1)TAM-6.5TAM 67%TAM
3:30Georgia (4-0/12)SEC (1-0)Auburn (3-1/46)SEC (0-1)GEO-14.5GEO 77%GEO
4:00Missouri (4-0/21)SEC (0-0)Vanderbilt (2-3/77)SEC (0-1)MIZZ-13.0MIZZ 82%MIZZ
6:00LSU (3-1/32)SEC (2-0)Mississippi (3-1/30)SEC (0-1)LSU-2.0MISS 54%MISS
7:30South Carolina (2-2/35)SEC (1-1)Tennessee (3-1/51)SEC (0-1)TENN-12.5TENN 64%TENN
9:00Alabama (3-1/25)SEC (1-0)Mississippi St (2-2/86)SEC (0-2)ALA-14.0ALA 67%MSST
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:30Temple (2-2/101)AAC (0-0)Tulsa (2-2/88)AAC (0-0)TULS-3.5TULS 55%TULS
12:00UAB (1-3/102)AAC (0-0)Tulane (3-1/76)AAC (0-0)TULN-21.5TULN 86%TULN
3:30South Florida (2-2/120)AAC (1-0)Navy (1-2/108)AAC (0-0)NAVY-4.0NAVY 52%SFLA
4:00Boise St (2-2/85)MWC (1-0)Memphis (3-1/67)AAC (1-0)MEM-3.5MEM 68%MEM
7:00East Carolina (1-3/111)AAC (0-0)Rice (2-2/105)AAC (0-1)RICE-3.0RICE 57%RICE
7:00Abilene Christian (2-2/205)UAC (0-1)North Texas (1-2/126)AAC (0-0)NLNTEX 58%NL
7:30Charlotte (1-3/78)AAC (0-0)SMU (2-2/83)AAC (0-0)SMU-23.0SMU 65%CHAR
OOC  none    
Idle  FAU (1-3/129), UTSA (1-3/122)    
   C-USA (9 teams)G5   
THU 7:30Middle Tennessee (1-3/99)USA (0-0)W Kentucky (2-2/90)USA (0-0)WKY-5.5WKY 57%MTSU
THU 8:00Jacksonville St (3-1/79)USA (1-0)Sam Houston (0-3/92)USA (0-1)JAX-6.5JAX 72%JAX
FRI 9:00LA Tech (2-3/133)USA (1-0)UTEP (1-4/117)USA (0-1)UTEP-1.0LATC 56%LATC
OOC  none    
Idle  FIU (3-2/123), Liberty (4-0/24), New Mexico St (2-3/131)    
   FBS Independents (4 teams)G5 (ND-P5)   
12:00Utah St (1-3/93)MWC (0-1)UCONN (0-4/68)IND (0-0)UTST-6.0UTST 56%UCON
3:30Arkansas St (2-2/115)SUN (1-0)UMASS (1-4/125)IND (0-0)UMAS-1.0ARST 53%ARST
OOC  Notre Dame (Duke-ACC)    
Idle  Army (2-2/110)    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
12:00Buffalo (0-4/109)MAC (0-0)Akron (1-3/118)MAC (0-0)AKR-2.5AKR 53%AKR
1:30E Michigan (2-2/126)MAC (0-0)C Michigan (2-2/97)MAC (0-0)CMI-7.5CMI 55%EMI
2:30Miami OH (3-1/70)MAC (0-0)Kent St (1-3/107)MAC (0-0)MIAO-15.0MIAO 70%MIAO
3:30Ball St (1-3/73)MAC (0-0)W Michigan (1-3/96)MAC (0-1)WMI-1.0WMI 52%WMI
3:30N Illinois (1-3/138)MAC (0-0)Toledo (3-1/94)MAC (1-0)TOL-13.5TOL 60%TOL
OOC  Bowling Green (Georgia Tech-ACC)    
Idle  Ohio (4-1/60)    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
4:00Hawaii (2-3/121)MWC (0-0)UNLV (3-1/74)MWC (0-0)UNLV-11.0UNLV 63%HAW
4:00New Mexico (2-2/127)MWC (0-0)Wyoming (3-1/65)MWC (0-0)WYO-14.0WYO 71%WYO
7:00Utah Tech (1-3/237)UAC (0-0)Colorado St (1-2/95)MWC (0-0)NLCOST 59%NL
8:00San Diego St (2-3/114)MWC (0-1)Air Force (4-0/29)MWC (2-0)AF-10.5AF 97%AF
10:30Nevada (0-4/63)MWC (0-0)Fresno St (4-0/31)MWC (0-0)FRST-24.5FRST>99%FRST
OOC  Utah St (UCONN-IND), Boise St (Memphis-AAC)    
Idle  San Jose St (1-4/84)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
12:00South Alabama (2-2/124)SUN (0-0)James Madison (4-0/39)SUN (1-0)JMU-3.0JMU 86%JMU
3:30Old Dominion (2-2/130)SUN (1-0)Marshall (3-0/48)SUN (0-0)MARS-14.0MARS 84%MARS
7:00Coastal Carolina (2-2/82)SUN (0-1)Ga Southern (3-1/80)SUN (0-0)GASO-6.5GASO 77%GASO
7:00Troy (2-2/106)SUN (0-1)Georgia St (4-0/37)SUN (1-0)GAST-1.5GAST 82%GAST
7:00Texas St (3-1/91)SUN (0-0)Southern Miss (1-3/113)SUN (0-1)TXST-5.5TXST 74%TXST
8:00App St (2-2/98)SUN (0-0)ULM (2-1/112)SUN (0-0)APST-13.5ULM 59%ULM
OOC  Louisiana (Minnesota-B10), Arkansas St (UMASS-IND)    
Idle  none    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Weber St (2-2/165)SKY (0-1)N Colorado (0-4/189)SKY (0-1)NLWEB 57%NL
4:00Idaho (3-1/142)SKY (1-0)E Washington (2-2/174)SKY (1-0)NLIDA 60%NL
4:00Idaho St (1-3/254)SKY (1-0)Montana (3-1/164)SKY (0-1)NLMONT 60%NL
4:05Portland St (2-2/160)SKY (1-0)Montana St (3-1/143)SKY (1-0)NLMTST 61%NL
8:00UC Davis (2-2/184)SKY (0-1)Cal Poly (2-2/207)SKY (0-1)NLUCD 56%NL
9:00N Arizona (1-3/209)SKY (1-0)Sacramento St (3-1/153)SKY (0-1)NLSAC 62%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (10 teams)FCS   
12:00Howard (1-2/224)MEAC (0-0)Robert Morris (2-2/182)BSOV (0-0)NLRM 56%NL
1:00Bryant (2-2/188)BSOV (0-0)Rhode Island (2-2/185)CAA (2-1)NLRI 52%NL
2:00Austin Peay (2-2/170)UAC (1-0)Lindenwood (2-2/218)BSOV (0-1)NLAP 56%NL
6:00Kennesaw St (1-3/249)FCSCharleston (1-3/216)BSOV (0-0)NLCHSO 53%NL
7:00E Illinois (3-1/162)BSOV (0-0)Northwestern St (0-3/203)BSOV (0-0)NLEILL 60%NL
7:00Tennessee St (2-1/163)BSOV (1-0)Tennessee Martin (3-1/140)BSOV (0-0)NLTMAR 59%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Gardner Webb (1-3/234), SEMO (1-3/212), Tennessee Tech (1-3/233)    
   Colonial (15 teams)FCS   
1:00Lehigh (1-3/252)PAT (0-0)Monmouth (1-3/248)CAA (1-1)NLMON 55%NL
2:00North Carolina A&T (0-3/244)CAA (0-1)Norfolk St (2-2/242)MEAC (0-0)NLNFST 56%NL
2:00William & Mary (4-0/132)CAA (2-0)Elon (2-2/186)CAA (2-0)NLW&M 67%NL
2:00Hampton (2-1/175)CAA (0-0)Richmond (2-2/214)CAA (1-0)NLHAMP 57%NL
3:00Towson (1-3/195)CAA (0-1)New Hampshire (2-2/187)CAA (0-1)NLNH 57%NL
3:30Stony Brook (0-4/228)CAA (0-3)Maine (0-4/190)CAA (0-2)NLMAIN 51%NL
3:30Villanova (3-1/151)CAA (1-0)Albany (2-2/173)CAA (0-0)NLVILL 60%NL
4:00Campbell (2-2/202)CAA (1-2)NC Central (3-1/154)MEAC (0-0)NLNCC 59%NL
OOC  Rhode Island (Bryant-BSOV)    
Idle  Delaware (3-1/146)    
   FCS Independent (1 team)FCS   
OOC  Kennesaw St (Charleston-BSOV)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
FRI 7:00Columbia (1-1/200)IVY (0-0)Princeton (1-1/210)IVY (0-0)NLPRIN 55%NL
12:00Morgan St (1-3/255)MEAC (0-0)Yale (0-2/246)IVY (0-1)NLYALE 56%NL
12:00C Connecticut (1-2/250)NEC (0-1)Brown (1-1/196)IVY (0-1)NLBRO 57%NL
1:00Dartmouth (1-1/223)IVY (0-0)Penn (2-0/137)IVY (0-0)NLPENN 65%NL
2:00Colgate (0-4/177)PAT (0-1)Cornell (2-0/141)IVY (1-0)NLCORN 65%NL
5:00Harvard (2-0/139)IVY (0-0)Holy Cross (3-1/147)PAT (1-0)NLHC 62%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
1:00Lynchburg (N/A)NADelaware St (0-4/211)MEAC (0-0)NLNLNL
OOC  Howard (Robert Morris-BSOV), Morgan St (Yale-IVY), Norfolk St (North Carolina A&T-BSOV), NC Central (Campbell)    
Idle  South Carolina St (1-3/238)    
   Missouri Valley (12 teams)FCS   
2:00South Dakota (2-1/149)MVC (0-0)North Dakota St (3-0/135)MVC (0-0)NLNDST 65%NL
2:00Youngstown St (2-1/156)MVC (0-0)N Iowa (1-2/240)MVC (0-0)NLYST 57%NL
3:00North Dakota (2-1/171)MVC (0-0)South Dakota St (3-0/134)MVC (0-0)NLSDKS 68%NL
5:00Missouri St (1-2/167)MVC (0-0)S Illinois (3-0/136)MVC (0-0)NLSILL 68%NL
7:00Indiana St (0-3/229)MVC (0-0)Murray St (1-2/172)MVC (0-0)NLMURR 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Illinois St (3-1/144), W Illinois (0-4/245)    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Duquesne (1-2/181)NEC (0-0)Long Island (0-3/192)NEC (0-0)NLDUQ 53%NL
1:00Merrimack (1-3/258)NEC (0-1)Sacred Heart (1-3/256)NEC (1-1)NLSH 51%NL
1:00St Francis (0-4/247)NEC (0-1)Stonehill (2-2/213)NEC (1-0)NLSTO 57%NL
OOC  C Connecticut (Brown-IVY), Wagner (Rutgers-B10)    
Idle  none    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
2:00Fordham (3-1/152)PAT (0-0)Georgetown (2-2/215)PAT (0-0)NLFORD 60%NL
3:30Bucknell (1-2/180)PAT (0-0)Lafayette (3-1/145)PAT (0-0)NLLAF 61%NL
OOC  Lehigh (Monmouth-CAA), Holy Cross (Harvard-IVY), Colgate (Cornell-IVY)    
Idle  none    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
12:00San Diego (1-3/261)PFL (1-0)Davidson (2-2/230)PFL (1-0)NLDAV 57%NL
12:00Stetson (2-2/201)PFL (0-1)Marist (1-2/257)PFL (1-1)NLSTET 56%NL
1:00St Thomas (2-2/219)PFL (1-0)Dayton (2-2/217)PFL (0-1)NLDAY 51%NL
1:00Presbyterian (2-1/193)PFL (0-0)Butler (3-1/157)PFL (1-0)NLBUT 58%NL
2:00Southwest Minnesota St (N/A)NAValparaiso (0-3/253)PFL (0-1)NLNLNL
2:00Drake (0-3/235)PFL (0-0)Morehead St (1-2/251)PFL (0-1)NLDRAK 52%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:00E Tennessee St (1-2/198)SoCon (0-0)Samford (1-3/206)SoCon (0-2)NLETSU 53%NL
2:00W Carolina (3-1/159)SoCon (1-0)Citadel (0-4/227)SoCon (0-1)NLWCAR 71%NL
4:00VMI (2-2/191)SoCon (1-0)Mercer (2-2/176)SoCon (0-1)NLMERC 55%NL
6:00Chattanooga (3-1/155)SoCon (2-0)Wofford (0-4/241)SoCon (0-1)NLCHAT 78%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Furman (3-1/150)    
   Southland (8 teams)FCS   
4:00Tarleton (3-1/158)UAC (1-0)SELA (0-4/221)SLAN (0-1)NLTARL 75%NL
7:00Lamar (1-3/231)SLAN (0-0)Houston Christian (2-2/199)SLAN (1-0)NLHOCH 57%NL
7:00Commerce (0-3/232)SLAN (0-0)Steph F Austin (2-2/197)UAC (0-1)NLSFA 59%NL
8:00Nicholls (0-3/169)SLAN (0-0)McNeese (0-4/194)SLAN (0-0)NLNICH 56%NL
OOC  Northwestern St (E Illinois-BSOV)    
Idle  Incarnate Word (3-1/148)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Tuskagee (N/A)NAAlabama A&M (2-2/204)SWAC (1-1)NLNLNL
3:00Lincoln (N/A)NATexas Southern (0-4/208)SWAC (0-2)NLNLNL
5:00Southern (1-2/260)SWAC (1-2)Ark Pine Bluff (1-3/239)SWAC (0-1)NLAPB 52%NL
6:00Alcorn St (1-3/259)SWAC (0-1)Alabama St (1-2/243)SWAC (1-1)NLALST 53%NL
7:00Florida A&M (3-1/161)SWAC (2-0)Mississippi Valley (0-3/236)SWAC (0-0)NLFLAM 73%NL
7:00Grambling St (2-2/183)SWAC (1-0)Prairie View (2-2/220)SWAC (2-0)NLGRAM 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Bethune Cookman (1-3/166), Jackson St (3-2/168)    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
7:00E Kentucky (1-3/179)UAC (0-0)N Alabama (2-3/222)UAC (0-1)NLEKY 52%NL
7:00C Arkansas (2-2/178)UAC (1-0)S Utah (1-3/225)UAC (0-0)NLCARK 57%NL
OOC  Austin Peay (Lindenwood-BSOV), Tarleton (SELA-SLAN), Abilene Christian (North Texas-AAC), Utah Tech (Colorado St-MWC), Steph F Austin (Commerce-SLAN)    
Idle  none