G’s Expectation or What to Watch in Week 8

Happy Tuesday, oh great and wonderful college football fans. We are in for a treat, especially this late in the season. There’s a lot to talk about in this crazy year, so let’s jump in. Last week, the GCR was 35-20 (.636) straight up for Power 5 games which brings the season to a disappointing 290-102 (.740). Against the spread, another off week of 28-27 (.509) brings the year to 145-131 (.525) which would lose a bunch of money in Vegas. Both of these numbers are indicators of how the NIL and transfer portal are an equalizing force across the sport. The FCS, always more difficult to pick the winners, was a decent 32-21 (.603) resulting in a to-date 169-105 (.617). Let’s hope this week gives us some improvement.

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Tonight, we have 3 games starting at 7:00 (all times Eastern) when Liberty (6-0/10) the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the GCR hosts Middle Tennessee (2-5/109). The GCR has LIB to win 95% and to cover the -14.0 spread. At 7:30, W Kentucky (4-2/60) invades Jacksonville St (5-2/53), which is in Alabama, not Florida. Side note: Jacksonville, FL used to have an FCS team but stopped playing football a couple of years ago. This is a really good test for the Gamecocks whose inaugural year in the FBS has gone well. The Hilltoppers are a traditionally good team in C-USA and is expected to get the road win by Vegas, WKY-7.0, but the GCR is taking the Gamecocks in the upset 61% and to cover. Also, at 7:30, out of the Sun Belt, Southern Miss (1-5/116) travels to South Alabama (3-3/85). Vegas gives a big spread (-17.0) to SALA and the GCR agrees with the win at 63%, but SMIS will cover.

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There are 8 games this week in which both teams have 0 or 1 loss. First, in the FCS, at 2:30, W Carolina (5-1/144) hosts Furman (5-1/136) for SoCon supremacy. Both of these schools only loss came to SEC competition, and both are undefeated in conference play. W Carolina wins out in Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) with a score of 136 (31st in the country) to the Paladins 113 (94th). That means that the Catamounts score 13.6 points for every 10.0 their opponents normally score. Furman has the better Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 91 (167th) compared to the Cats’ 85 (201st). That means Furman gives up 10.0 points for every 9.1 their opponents normally score. Expect a lot of points in this one, but the defense will prevail (at least once) and the GCR picks Furman to win 53% of the time. Note: FCS games typically don’t publish Vegas lines this early in the week.

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At 3:00, South Dakota St (6-0/88) travels to S Illinois (5-1/135) in a Missouri Valley Conference matchup. First place, per se, is not on the line as South Dakota (5-1/132) is tied with SDKS at 3-0 in conference but will have an impact before the season is over. The Jackrabbits bring an OER of 156 (10th) to face a S Illinois DER of 148 (33rd). When the Salukis have possession and OER of 94 (151st) tries to move vs a DER of 217 (6th). South Dakota St is the only undefeated FCS school other than Harvard (5-0/105) remaining and will stay that way 71%. Upsets happen, but this team is just loaded and are arguably the most dominant team in Division I.

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Heading out west, the Big Sky has the final FCS game of the week with a 10:30 kickoff when two powerhouses of a powerhouse conference come to fight. Sacramento St (5-1/140) hosts Montana St (5-1/124) in a huge game. When the Hornets have the ball, an OER of 98 (138th) faces Montana St’s DER of 172 (19th). On the flip side, the Bobcats have a OER of 145 (21st) in the country and will face a SAC DER of 102 (113th). Montana St is the Big Sky team undefeated in the conference and they will remain that way 58%. Could there be a Bobcat/Jackrabbit FCS championship game in our future?

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There is only 1 qualifying game in the Group of 5 as Toledo (6-1/28) travels to Miami OH (6-1/27) in what could be a precursor of the MAC championship game in December. With a kickoff at 4:00, the Rockets bring an OER of 111 (100th) vs a MIAO DER of 124 (63rd) and when the ball is owned by the RedHawks, an OER of 99 (133th) faces a Toledo DER of 114 (83rd). Defenses seem to outweigh offenses in the is one, so expect a low scoring game. Vegas likes TOL-1.0, but the GCR has the RedHawks in the upset 57%.

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At noon, the GCR Game of the Week pits the beginning of the dog eat dog Big Ten East (which still has 3 undefeated teams so far) when Ohio St (6-0/3) hosts Penn St (6-0/2). Both teams still have to face Michigan (6-0/1) later in the season, so this game is critical to stay in the race. When the Buckeyes have control they bring an OER of 145 (19th) vs a Penn St DER of 301 (3rd). When the Nittany Lions take the rock, an OER of 168 (5th) faces an OHST DER of 307 (2nd). Points will be hard to come by. Vegas likes OHST-4.5, but in the GCR Upset of the Week, PSU pulls out the signature road win 57%.

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At 3:30, Tennessee (5-1/23) travels to Alabama (6-1/12) in the annual showdown between these to SEC teams. When the Vols are driving, an OER of 133 (38th) against an Alabama DER of 196 (11th). When the Crimson Elephant Tides have the ball, they bring an OER of 116 (78th) vs a TENN DER of 173 (17th). Vegas likes Alabama-9.5 and the GCR agrees on the win, ALA 64%, but Tennessee will stay close and cover in a one-score game.

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At 7:30, Duke (5-1/14) invades Florida St (6-0/6) as two of the ACC’s teams that are undefeated in the conference (North Carolina (6-0/8) is the other). When the Blue Devils are trying to score, they bring an OER of 137 (30th) vs a Florida St DER of 165 (22nd). When the Seminoles attempt to put points on the board, an OER of 155 (11th) faces a Duke DER of 272 (4th). Vegas likes FSU in a blowout -14.0, and the GCR agrees. FSU 83% and to cover.

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And our final game, at 8:00, we have Southern Cal (6-1/18) hosting Utah (5-1/22) in a Pac-12 thriller. When the Trojans are on offense, an OER of 158 (8th) takes on a Utah DER of 229 (5th). When the Utes are on the attack, an OER of 92 (158th) will face a SCAL DER of 92 (163rd). Talk about strength on strength. Vegas likes SCAL-5.0 and the GCR agrees 63% and to cover.

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What a wonderful set of games we have as part of the 109 from tonight through Saturday. Enjoy and I hope your team does well (unless they are playing my team). Thanks for reading and sharing, G

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Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Vegas LineGCR to WinGCR to Cover
   ACC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Boston College (3-3/73)ACC (1-2)Georgia Tech (3-3/63)ACC (2-1)GT-5.0GT 56%GT
3:30Pittsburgh (2-4/97)ACC (1-2)Wake Forest (3-3/90)ACC (0-3)WAKE-1.0WF 61%WAKE
6:30Virginia (1-5/89)ACC (0-2)North Carolina (6-0/8)ACC (3-0)NCAR-23.5NCAR 93%NCAR
7:30Duke (5-1/14)ACC (2-0)Florida St (6-0/6)ACC (4-0)FSU-14.0FSU 83%FSU
8:00Clemson (4-2/34)ACC (2-2)Miami FL (4-2/38)ACC (0-2)CLEM-2.5MIAF 53%MIAF
Idle  Louisville (6-1/17), NC St (4-3/57), Syracuse (4-3/54), Virginia Tech (3-4/83)    
   Big 12 (14 teams)P5   
12:00UCF (3-3/77)B12 (0-3)Oklahoma (6-0/4)B12 (3-0)OKLA-19.0OKLA 98%OKLA
12:00Baylor (2-4/106)B12 (1-2)Cincinnati (2-4/86)B12 (0-3)CIN-1.0CIN 55%CIN
3:30Oklahoma St (4-2/46)B12 (2-1)West Virginia (4-2/42)B12 (2-1)WVU-3.0WVU 57%WVU
4:00Texas (5-1/9)B12 (2-1)Houston (3-3/91)B12 (1-2)TEX-22.5TEX 91%TEX
7:00Texas Tech (3-4/81)B12 (2-2)BYU (4-2/52)B12 (1-2)TXTC-4.5BYU 69%BYU
7:00TCU (4-3/61)B12 (2-2)Kansas St (4-2/36)B12 (2-1)KSST-7.5KSST 65%KSST
OOC  none    
Idle  Iowa St (4-3/44), Kansas (5-2/37)    
   Big Ten (14 teams)P5   
12:00Penn St (6-0/2)B10 (3-0)Ohio St (6-0/3)B10 (3-0)OHST-4.5PSU 57%PSU
12:00Rutgers (5-2/31)B10 (2-2)Indiana (2-4/65)B10 (0-3)RUTG-5.0RUTG 78%RUTG
3:30Wisconsin (4-2/41)B10 (2-1)Illinois (3-4/70)B10 (1-3)WISC-3.5WISC 70%WISC
3:30Minnesota (3-3/55)B10 (1-2)Iowa (6-1/19)B10 (3-1)IOWA-5.5IOWA 81%IOWA
3:30Northwestern (3-3/66)B10 (1-2)Nebraska (3-3/71)B10 (1-2)NEB-13.5NEB 51%NW
7:30Michigan (7-0/1)B10 (4-0)Michigan St (2-4/62)B10 (0-3)MICH-24.5MICH>99%MICH
OOC  none    
Idle  Maryland (5-2/33), Purdue (2-5/74)    
   Pac 12 (12 teams)P5   
3:30Washington St (4-2/43)P12 (1-2)Oregon (5-1/13)P12 (2-1)ORE-20.0ORE 82%ORE
8:00Utah (5-1/22)P12 (2-1)Southern Cal (6-1/18)P12 (4-0)SCAL-5.0SCAL 63%SCAL
10:30Arizona St (4-3/49)P12 (2-2)Washington (6-0/7)P12 (3-0)WASH-28.5WASH 92%WASH
10:30UCLA (4-2/35)P12 (1-2)Stanford (2-4/79)P12 (1-3)UCLA-16.5UCLA 72%STAN
OOC  none    
Idle  Arizona (4-3/49), California (3-4/72), Colorado (4-3/58), Oregon St (6-1/15)    
   SEC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Mississippi St (3-3/84)SEC (0-3)Arkansas (2-5/78)SEC (0-4)ARK-7.0MSST 56%MSST
3:30Tennessee (5-1/23)SEC (2-1)Alabama (6-1/12)SEC (4-0)ALA-9.5ALA 64%TENN
3:30South Carolina (2-4/48)SEC (1-3)Missouri (6-1/24)SEC (2-1)MIZZ-6.5MIZZ 86%MIZZ
7:00Mississippi (5-1/20)SEC (2-1)Auburn (3-3/64)SEC (0-3)MISS-6.0MISS 87%MISS
7:30Army (2-4/143)IND (0-0)LSU (5-2/25)SEC (4-1)LSU-30.0LSU>99%LSU
OOC  none    
Idle  Florida (5-2/32), Georgia (7-0/5), Kentucky (5-2/29), Texas A&M (4-3/50), Vanderbilt (2-6/80)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:00Rice (3-3/114)AAC (1-1)Tulsa (3-3/93)AAC (1-1)TULS-2.5RICE 55%RICE
FRI 7:00SMU (4-2/59)AAC (2-0)Temple (2-5/146)AAC (0-3)SMU-18.0SMU 70%TEMP
12:00Memphis (4-2/68)AAC (1-1)UAB (2-5/108)AAC (1-2)MEM-4.5MEM 66%MEM
12:00Air Force (6-0/11)MWC (4-0)Navy (3-3/112)AAC (2-2)AF-10.0AF 87%AF
2:00Charlotte (1-5/122)AAC (0-2)East Carolina (1-5/123)AAC (0-2)ECAR-7.5ECAR 55%CHAR
3:30North Texas (3-3/120)AAC (1-1)Tulane (5-1/30)AAC (2-0)TULN-20.0TULN 83%TULN
3:30South Florida (3-4/118)AAC (2-2)UCONN (1-5/129)IND (0-0)SFLA-3.0SFLA 54%SFLA
6:00UTSA (3-3/102)AAC (2-0)FAU (3-3/98)AAC (2-0)UTSA-3.0FAU 55%FAU
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   C-USA (9 teams)G5   
TUE 7:00Middle Tennessee (2-5/109)USA (1-2)Liberty (6-0/10)USA (4-0)LIB-14.0LIB 95%LIB
TUE 7:30W Kentucky (4-2/60)USA (2-0)Jacksonville St (5-2/53)USA (3-1)WKY-7.0JAX 61%JAX
WED 7:00FIU (3-4/139)USA (0-4)Sam Houston (0-6/101)USA (0-3)SHOU-5.0FIU 57%FIU
WED 9:00New Mexico St (4-3/100)USA (2-1)UTEP (2-5/130)USA (1-2)NMST-2.5NMST 62%NMST
OOC  none    
Idle  LA Tech (3-5/149)    
   FBS Independents (4 teams)G5 (ND-P5)   
OOC  Army (LSU-SEC), UCONN (South Florida-AAC)    
Idle  Notre Dame (6-2/21), UMASS (1-7/110)    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
12:00W Michigan (2-5/107)MAC (1-2)Ohio (5-2/51)MAC (2-1)OHIO-15.0OHIO 77%OHIO
2:00Akron (1-5/158)MAC (0-3)Bowling Green (3-4/76)MAC (1-2)BG-8.5BG 59%AKR
3:30C Michigan (4-3/95)MAC (2-1)Ball St (1-6/117)MAC (0-3)CMI-3.5CMI 62%CMI
3:30E Michigan (4-3/99)MAC (2-1)N Illinois (3-4/119)MAC (2-1)NILL-11.5EMI 60%EMI
3:30Buffalo (2-5/141)MAC (2-1)Kent St (1-6/126)MAC (0-3)BUFF-7.0BUFF 56%KTST
4:00Toledo (6-1/28)MAC (3-0)Miami OH (6-1/27)MAC (3-0)TOL-1.0MIAO 57%MIAO
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
6:00Hawaii (2-5/142)MWC (0-2)New Mexico (2-4/148)MWC (0-2)NMEX-2.0NMEX 56%NMEX
7:00Colorado St (3-3/115)MWC (1-1)UNLV (5-1/40)MWC (2-0)UNLV-7.0UNLV 79%UNLV
7:00Utah St (3-4/92)MWC (1-2)San Jose St (2-5/96)MWC (1-2)SJST-5.0UTST 57%UTST
9:00Nevada (0-6/82)MWC (0-2)San Diego St (3-4/103)MWC (1-2)SDST-13.5SDST 58%NEV
OOC  Air Force (Navy-AAC)    
Idle  Boise St (3-4/113), Fresno St (6-1/26), Wyoming (5-2/47)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
TUE 7:30Southern Miss (1-5/116)SUN (0-3)South Alabama (3-3/85)SUN (1-1)SALA-17.0SALA 63%SMIS
THU 7:00James Madison (6-0/16)SUN (3-0)Marshall (4-2/69)SUN (1-1)JMU-4.0JMU 91%JMU
2:00ULM (2-4/138)SUN (0-3)Ga Southern (4-2/67)SUN (1-1)GASO-16.5GASO 70%GASO
7:00App St (3-3/94)SUN (1-1)Old Dominion (3-3/121)SUN (2-1)APST-6.5APST 55%OD
7:00Coastal Carolina (3-3/87)SUN (1-2)Arkansas St (3-3/111)SUN (1-1)CCAR-9.0CCAR 57%ARST
8:00Georgia St (5-1/39)SUN (2-1)Louisiana (4-2/75)SUN (1-1)LAU-2.5GAST 69%GAST
OOC  none    
Idle  Texas St (5-2/56), Troy (5-2/45)    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
4:00Idaho St (2-4/234)SKY (2-1)Portland St (3-3/174)SKY (2-1)NLPTST 58%NL
7:00Weber St (3-4/198)SKY (1-3)E Washington (2-4/217)SKY (1-2)NLWEB 55%NL
8:00N Colorado (0-6/224)SKY (0-3)Cal Poly (2-5/245)SKY (0-4)NLCP 55%NL
10:30Montana St (5-1/124)SKY (3-0)Sacramento St (5-1/140)SKY (2-1)NLMTST 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Idaho (5-2/145), Montana (6-1/125), N Arizona (2-5/240), UC Davis (4-3/164)    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (10 teams)FCS   
2:30SEMO (2-4/228)BSOV (2-0)Tennessee Tech (2-4/241)BSOV (0-1)NLSEMO 52%NL
3:00Bryant (3-3/183)BSOV (1-0)E Illinois (4-3/171)BSOV (0-2)NLBRY 58%NL
3:00Charleston (3-3/189)BSOV (1-0)Tennessee Martin (5-1/127)BSOV (2-0)NLTMAR 73%NL
3:00Lincoln (NA)NATennessee St (4-2/162)BSOV (1-1)NLNLNL
6:00E Kentucky (3-3/178)UAC (2-0)Gardner Webb (2-4/236)BSOV (1-1)NLEKY 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Lindenwood (3-4/225), Robert Morris (2-5/242)    
   Colonial (15 teams)FCS   
1:00Richmond (4-3/177)CAA (3-1)North Carolina A&T (1-5/239)CAA (0-3)NLRICH 59%NL
2:00Delaware (5-1/133)CAA (3-0)Hampton (3-3/191)CAA (1-2)NLDEL 69%NL
2:00Monmouth (3-3/184)CAA (2-1)Elon (3-4/206)CAA (3-1)NLMON 56%NL
3:30New Hampshire (3-3/190)CAA (1-2)Stony Brook (0-6/218)CAA (0-4)NLNH 58%NL
3:30Rhode Island (4-3/177)CAA (2-2)Albany (4-3/163)CAA (2-1)NLALB 56%NL
3:30Towson (2-4/220)CAA (1-2)William & Mary (4-2/159)CAA (2-1)NLW&M 65%NL
4:00Maine (2-5/248)CAA (1-3)Campbell (3-3/185)CAA (2-2)NLCAMP 59%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Villanova (5-2/150)    
   FCS Independent (1 team)FCS   
Idle  Kennesaw St (1-5/254)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
12:00Penn (4-1/147)IVY (1-1)Yale (3-2/168)IVY (1-1)NLPENN 61%NL
1:00Brown (3-2/167)IVY (1-1)Cornell (2-3/233)IVY (1-1)NLBRO 59%NL
1:00Harvard (5-0/105)IVY (2-0)Princeton (2-3/213)IVY (1-1)NLHARV 80%NL
1:30Columbia (2-3/211)IVY (0-2)Dartmouth (2-3/231)IVY (1-1)NLCOLA 53%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
THU 7:30NC Central (5-1/137)MEAC (0-0)Morgan St (1-4/249)MEAC (0-0)NLNCC 71%NL
12:00Norfolk St (2-4/259)MEAC (0-0)Howard (2-4/215)MEAC (0-0)NLHOW 56%NL
12:00South Carolina St (2-4/250)MEAC (0-0)Delaware St (1-5/238)MEAC (0-0)NLSCST 55%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Missouri Valley (12 teams)FCS   
1:00South Dakota (5-1/132)MVC (3-0)Indiana St (0-6/237)MVC (0-3)NLSDAK 71%NL
2:00Illinois St (4-2/156)MVC (2-1)Youngstown St (3-3/181)MVC (1-2)NLILST 61%NL
3:00Murray St (2-4/204)MVC (1-2)Missouri St (2-4/209)MVC (1-2)NLMOST 55%NL
3:00South Dakota St (6-0/88)MVC (3-0)S Illinois (5-1/135)MVC (2-1)NLSKDS 71%NL
3:30W Illinois (0-6/227)MVC (0-3)Notth Daktoa St (4-2/157)MVC (1-2)NLNDST 59%NL
5:00North Dakota (4-2/161)MVC (2-1)N Iowa (3-3/186)MVC (2-1)NLNDAK 59%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
12:00C Connecticut (2-4/256)NEC (0-2)Wagner (2-4/226)NEC (2-1)NLWAG 55%NL
12:00Merrimack (3-3/193)NEC (2-1)Long Island (1-5/243)NEC (1-1)NLMERR 58%NL
1:00St Francis (2-4/252)NEC (2-1)Duquesne (3-3/180)NEC (2-0)NLDUQ 59%NL
1:00Sacred Heart (1-6/257)NEC (1-3)Stonehill (2-4/244)NEC (1-2)NLSTON 56%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
1:00Lehigh (1-6/251)PAT (0-2)Bucknell (2-4/205)PAT (0-2)NLBUCK 56%NL
1:00Lafayette (5-1/134)PAT (1-0)Holy Cross (4-2/155)PAT (2-0)NLHC 65%NL
3:00Colgate (2-4/212)PAT (0-1)Georgetown (4-3/173)PAT (2-0)NLGTOW 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Fordham (5-2/152)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
1:00Valparaiso (1-5/258)PFL (0-3)Davidson (4-2/160)PFL (3-0)NLDAV 66%NL
1:00Butler (4-3/169)PFL (2-2)Dayton (2-5/261)PFL (0-4)NLBUT 60%NL
1:00Marist (3-3/203)PFL (3-1)Presbyterian (3-3/200)PFL (1-2)NLPC 55%NL
1:00St Thomas (4-3/179)PFL (3-1)Stetson (3-3/195)PFL (1-2)NLSTTH 55%NL
5:00Drake (3-3/196)PFL (3-0)San Diego (1-5/260)PFL (1-2)NLDRAK 58%NL
7:00Morehead St (3-3/194)PFL (2-2)Tarleton (4-3/176)UAC (1-2)NLTARL 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:00Samford (3-4/222)SoCon (2-3)VMI (3-3/192)SoCon (2-1)NLVMI 56%NL
1:30E Tennessee St (2-4/235)SoCon (1-2)Chattanooga (5-2/153)SoCon (4-1)NLCHAT 60%NL
2:30Furman (5-1/136)SoCon (3-0)W Carolina (5-1/144)SoCon (3-0)NLFUR 53%NL
4:00Wofford (0-7/232)SoCon (0-4)Mercer (4-3/165)SoCon (2-2)NLMERC 62%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Citadel (0-7/229)    
   Southland (8 teams)FCS   
3:00SELA (0-7/219)SLAN (0-3)Northwestern St (0-5/210)SLAN (0-1)NLNWST 52%NL
5:00Nicholls (2-3/187)SLAN (2-0)Commerce (1-5/246)SLAN (1-1)NLNICH 55%NL
8:00Incarnate Word (5-1/128)SLAN (2-0)McNeese (0-6/207)SLAN (0-2)NLIW 74%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Houston Christian (3-4/208), Lamar (4-3/175)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Alcorn St (3-3/197)SWAC (2-1)Ark Pine Bluff (1-5/247)SWAC (0-3)NLACST 58%NL
4:00Southern (3-3/188) – NSWAC (2-3)Bethune Cookman (1-5/230) – NSWAC (0-3)NLSOUT 56%NL
5:00Jackson St (4-3/166)SWAC (3-2)Mississippi Valley (1-5/255)SWAC (1-2)NLJACK 64%NL
8:00Florida A&M (5-1/131)SWAC (4-0)Texas Southern (2-4/214)SWAC (1-2)NLFLAM 70%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Alabama A&M (4-3/172), Alabama St (3-3/202), Grambling St (3-4/199), Prairie View (3-4/216)    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
5:00Abilene Christian (3-3/182)UAC (1-1)Steph F Austin (3-4/201)UAC (0-3)NLABCH 55%NL
7:00Utah Tech (2-4/223)UAC (1-0)N Alabama (2-5/253)UAC (0-3)NLUTTC 53%NL
8:00Austin Peay (4-2/154)UAC (1-0)S Utah (2-4/221)UAC (1-1)NLAP 65%NL
OOC  E Kentucky (Gardner Webb-BSOV), Tarleton (Morehead St-PFL)    
Idle  C Arkansas (5-2/151)