Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! I hope you are being safe as your prepare to overstuff yourself. It is pretty easy this year to fall into a trap of losing things to be thankful for. Of course it’s been a tough year for everyone, but I found I’m closer to my family and really close friends because of the lack of distractions. I know it isn’t the same for everyone else, but all of have some things to think about today. I also want to call out my thanks to the players, coaches, staff, tv people, etc., who are trying to entertain us. Yes, to say that some programs are more about the almighty dollar than anything else is true. But, the kids playing, the coaches coaching, etc., are, I’d like to think, more about the game and the future. These people put themselves in harm’s way (already 18 games this week cancelled, postponed, rescheduled, or thrown together at the last minute and it’s still Thursday) to provide much-needed entertainment. Some of us are happy with our team’s performance to date, some are disappointed, some teams haven’t played a game yet, some players opted out, some are giving all they have. It’s all good. It’s 2020 – the year that will become its own curse word. For those who are longer-term readers, I usually devote a late November post to the “powerhouses” that play weak schedules and then boast of their results. Not this year. It’s all good. It’s 2020. So, not just today, but for the rest of the college season (which could go late into spring semester for the FCS schools), let’s be thankful that we are able to enjoy the world’s best game and be good with that.
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I mentioned this in G’s Evaluation, but the GCR had a below average week last week going just 18-12 (.600). That’s the worst week of the year, so it’s rebound time. The expectation this week is a lofty .715 winning percentage, so the self-designed gauntlet has been thrown. The full list of qualified games (only Stanford/California, Bowling Green/Ohio, Miami OH/Akron, Colorado/Southern Cal, and Utah/Washington don’t qualify) are below. Here’s the summary table with last week’s ghastly performance, year-to-date, and the overall expectations for this week (numbers will change as other games are dropped). The last two week’s have been rough in the 50% decile – only 2 of 8 last week.
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Originally there were 2 games today, but Colorado St/Air Force was cancelled) so the game to watch on Thursday is an easy choice. At 7:00 (all times Eastern), New Mexico (133) travels to Utah St (125). Keeping in mind only 144 teams have played a game, this is not a powerhouse game, but it is one of 5 games that the GCR disagrees with the Vegas favorite. New Mexico is a 5.5 point favorite on the sports book, but the GCR slightly favors (in a 50% decile toss up game) Utah St at 58.0%. These teams are a combined 0-8 this season which is probably the only thing, other than being the only college game on, that makes it worth watching.
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9 games fill the docket for Friday, starting at noon with the final game starting at 7:30. Notre Dame (1) travels to Chapel Hill to take on UNC (22) i a top 25 matchup. That game is interesting, at least to me, because UNC was the original #1 team in this year’s GCR – but then those pesky games got in the Tar Heels way. Notre Dame should win (GCR 62.5%, Vegas -4.5). That should be a good one and because it starts at 3:30 it is a co-game to watch with the noon kickoff of Iowa St (20) at Texas (29). Earlier this week, Vegas had Texas -1.0, but as of this morning it was a complete flip and now the Cyclones are -1.0. The GCR isn’t surprised (Iowa St 57.3% to win), but the game is intriguing because the Big 12 is on it’s last gasp to be included in much of anything important in the post season. Oklahoma’s (21) game was cancelled. Texas and Iowa St both have 2 losses so, if they aren’t already eliminated, one will be for sure this weekend. Oklahoma St (18) also has 2 losses and should be ok hosting Texas Tech (71). The 2-loss club will be down to 3 (or 2 if the Cowboys are upset). Relevancy is at stake.
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For Saturday’s early games have some intriguing matchups. First, in the upset of the week, UTEP (92) will invade Rice (116) at 1:00. The GCR favors UTEP (60.6%) who has had an unusually good season (2-3 wins is a decent season for that program) at 3-4 and Rice is at 1-2 having missed about a billion games due to COVID. Vegas has Rice -11 – that’s right a double digit favorite!!! Word from Columbus is Ohio St (6) may not be able to play Illinois (95) – no official announcement yet. Kent St (31) will tackle Buffalo (32) in a MAC game of unbeatens. But the game to watch? Indiana (28) will be working to get back in the GCR top 25 hosting a surprising Maryland (39) team. Both have 1 loss (Indiana 4-1, Maryland 2-1) and are making noise in the Big 10 East. Over in the west, Wisconsin had another cancellation and will not be eligible for the title). That shouldn’t happen to Ohio St (4-0), but if their outbreak is severe enough, there is a slight possibility the East would have to be represented by the second-best team. Saturday’s game is to determine that team. All other East teams have at least 3 losses and are out of contention. Vegas likes Indiana -11.0 and the GCR sees a tighter game, but agrees with the victor 58.1%.
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The mid-afternoon games greet us with Sun Belt blowouts (keep in mind the Sun Belt is 3-0 against the Big 12 this year). The top 2 teams (and probable championship matchup) are facing minimal challenge. Both are over 80% to win: undefeated Coastal Carolina (8) over Texas St (104) and 1-loss (to Coastal Carolina) Louisiana (17) over ULM (123). It’s rivalry week in some places this week and the Iron Bowl without Saban (Alabama (2) should beat Auburn (34) 68.0% of the time). Clemson (5) is back in action against Pittsburgh (42) and should win 69.9%. But the game to watch and the Game of the Week is Colorado (12) at Southern Cal (7). At a combined 5-0, the GCR can’t officially pick this game, but in a short season this game is critical. They are the remaining perfect teams in the Pac 12 South and this game may be the decider for the division.
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In the night games, we have 5-0 Nevada (24) going to Honolulu to play Hawaii (105). They should win handily (over 80%), but they are quietly putting their name in the hat for Group of 5 leader. Georgia (19) travels to South Carolina (102) and what would normally be a so-what kind of game has some interest. Last year the Gamecocks beat UGA at home (probably costing them a playoff berth) despite a GCR for the Bulldogs of over 90% – the only such loss for the predictor all season. On the road, the Bulldogs (21 point favorites) have an 80.9% chance to win which does not include chip on the shoulder or chaos in Columbia. But the game to watch is Virginia (45) at Florida St (59). The Seminoles have taken some heat from Swinney after cancelling last week’s game. Can they overcome that? The GCR has FSU with the most difficult schedule this season and the Cavaliers at #5. They are pretty evenly matched and Vegas give Virginia -9.5. The GCR agrees 59.6%.
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Those are the picks for this week of Thanksgiving. I wish you well and a safe weekend. Here is all of the GCR picks for this week. Enjoy!! G
